US retail sales recorded growth in February 2026, showing some recovery after the slight decline of the previous month. According to the report, retail sales increased 0.6% month-on-month, following a downward revision of -0.1% in January. On an annual basis, growth was 3.7%, reflecting still-solid consumption, though without significant acceleration. Overall, the December-to-February period showed an advance of 3.1% compared to the same period the prior year.

Our take

Within retail trade, momentum remains concentrated in specific segments. Standouts include strong growth in online sales, up 7.5% annually, as well as food services and beverages, up 5.2%. This contrasts with more moderate performance in other categories, suggesting that consumption remains resilient but with a clear preference toward digital channels and spending on services rather than traditional goods.

President Trump has delivered what appears to be the most reassuring message for investors since the war against Iran began. The US president's statements that the war will end in "two or three weeks" and the address he will give in Washington (at 7pm Mexico City time) on the conflict are leading financial markets to start the month with a degree of optimism. At the same time, there were comments from some Iranian leaders who, while denying that formal peace talks were taking place, expressed their willingness to end the war if a series of conditions were met and certain guarantees were given.

Our take

Investors are reacting with some relief at the possible resolution of a conflict that has caused a notable energy crisis. The prospect of the United States seeking a de-escalation may contribute to risk appetite in the short term. However, we could still experience some volatility if the Trump administration were to revise its military strategy.

In March, the Eurozone manufacturing sector continued to grow according to the PMI index, but the war in the Middle East is beginning to leave its mark and industry input prices are rising at their fastest pace since October 2022. Specifically, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose from 50.8 recorded in February to 51.6 points in March, its highest level in four years.

Our take

Although manufacturing output growth and new orders remained stable in March, the expansion was moderate. As such, it would not take much for production and sales volumes to decline, and this risk clearly increases as the war in Iran drags on.

Mexico's Finance Ministry delivers to Congress today the Pre-criteria for Economic Policy, in this case for 2027, a document that outlines how much and how the country's economic growth will be sustained, as well as the effect it will have on public finances in terms of revenues, spending, deficit, and debt.

Our take

Beyond potential adjustments to GDP estimates for 2026, the variable drawing the most attention is the oil price estimate and its impact on public finances, given the recent rebound in international oil prices.

Markets and Stocks

Brent was trading around US$100 per barrel, with WTI near US$99, retreating from last week's record highs. Gold was advancing toward US$4,730 per ounce, its fourth consecutive day of gains, recovering part of the ground lost in its worst month since 2020. Aluminum maintained part of its recent gains due to damage to smelters in the Gulf. European natural gas was moderating its advance on expectations of conflict resolution, though it remains more than double its late-February levels.

Corporate News

Nemak confirmed today that Hervé Boyer formally assumed the role of Chief Executive Officer, completing a succession process announced in January. Boyer succeeds Armando Tamez Martínez, who concludes a 42-year career at the company, the last 13 as CEO.

Our Take 

The leadership transition at Nemak combines two relevant signals for the market: a generational change in leadership and a results guidance that bets on resilience in a complex automotive environment. The operating cash flow guidance of between US$630 and US$650 million will be the primary benchmark for evaluating the new management team's execution throughout the year.

OpenAI completed its largest funding round to date, raising US$122 billion at a valuation of US$852 billion. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley are among the banks being considered for lead roles in a potential IPO, which would compete directly with the process that Anthropic is also evaluating for October.

Nike reported quarterly results and issued guidance for the next quarter that fell short of market expectations, projecting a 20% sales decline in China and flagging supply chain disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. Shares were falling around 10% in pre-market trading.

Microsoft is in talks with Chevron and activist fund Engine No. 1 for a long-term agreement that would underpin a large-scale energy complex in West Texas, intended to power its artificial intelligence data centers, according to Bloomberg reports.

The to-do list

Recommendation of the day

It's the last working day before Holy Week. If you can get out of Mexico City this long weekend, Tepoztlán is the closest and easiest option: good weather, a market in the town center, and the silence you need after a month of oil, war, and central banks. If you prefer the beach, Zipolite or Mazunte in Oaxaca are a different bet for those who want to escape the noise without the chaos of Cancún. Markets reopen on Monday.