IMEF indicator points to weaker economic momentum in Mexico in August
The indicators compiled by IMEF remained below 50 points in August, confirming that Mexico's economic recovery still lacks traction.
Key points
U.S. companies slow the pace of hiring in August
President Sheinbaum bets on investment and fiscal discipline heading into 2027
Mexican light-vehicle sales rise for an eighth consecutive month in August
New Zealand's central bank raises interest rates by 25 basis points
For the rest of the day, the interbank exchange rate (Mexican pesos per U.S. dollar) could trade between $16.95 and $17.10 in the spot market
Major equity markets are heading for a mixed session this Wednesday after yesterday's declines, amid renewed tensions over the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, a rise in global bond yields, and markets digesting the ADP employment report. U.S. futures are broadly unchanged, while the Nasdaq 100 is down 0.30%, heading for its fourth consecutive session of losses. Despite the increased risk of disruptions to energy flows from the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict, Brent crude is marginally lower, down 0.10% at $94.50 per barrel. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.80%.
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
S&P 500
7,641
0.00%
Nasdaq
29,044
-0.30%
Dow Jones
52,925
0.20%
IPyC
64,596
0.10%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
USD/MXN
16.9967
0.10%
EUR/MXN
19.6925
0.00%
EUR/USD
1.158
-0.10%
Índice DXY
99.76
0.10%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Treasury 2 años
4.38
-1.3 bp
Treasury 10 años
4.79
-0.8 bp
TIIE 3 meses
6.58
2.0 bp
M Bono 10 años
9.34
0.1 bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Petróleo (Brent)
94.57
-0.10%
Oro
4,339
0.30%
What you need to know about the economy and markets
In August, Mexico's IMEF Manufacturing Indicator remained at 49.7 points, marking 29 consecutive months in contraction territory, although improvements in new orders and employment point to some stabilization. In contrast, the Non-Manufacturing Index fell from 49.6 to 48.7 points, with broad-based declines in production, orders, and employment.
Our Take
The momentum from the second quarter has begun to fade. Manufacturing appears to have found a floor, but weakness in services confirms that domestic demand still lacks sufficient traction.
U.S. private-sector employment increased by 38,000 jobs in August, below the 47,000 expected and the revised 46,000 in July. It was the smallest increase since January, with hiring concentrated in education, healthcare, leisure, hospitality, and construction, while manufacturing employment declined again.
Our Take
The labor market continues to cool, but there is still no evidence of broad-based deterioration. Slower job creation also reflects limited growth in labor supply, so the figure alone does not alter the Fed's stance. However, it increases the importance of the official employment report and leaves less room for maintaining a restrictive policy if weakness persists.
On the economic front, President Sheinbaum's Second Government Report highlighted second-quarter GDP growth, record foreign direct investment in the first half of the year, and an unemployment rate of 2.7%. It also emphasized the strength of the peso, rising real wages, and higher tax revenues. For 2027, the government anticipates a responsible economic package that advances fiscal consolidation without compromising public investment or spending on social welfare, healthcare, and education.
Our Take
The message emphasized macroeconomic stability and income recovery over the low growth the country continues to face. Plan Mexico and the openness to mixed-investment schemes represent a favorable shift, but their impact will depend on the speed of execution, certainty for private capital, and the ability to maintain fiscal consolidation without crowding out productive investment.
In August 2026, 129,479 light vehicles were sold in Mexico, 2.3% more than in August 2025, according to INEGI's Administrative Registry of the Automotive Industry of Light Vehicles (RAIAVL). As a result, cumulative sales from January through August 2026 reached 1,014,832 units, an increase of 4.7% compared with the same period in 2025.
Our Take
Although they have lost some momentum, domestic light-vehicle sales continue to show resilience, even amid weaker business confidence and uncertainty surrounding the USMCA review. The strength of consumption suggests that deteriorating expectations have not yet fully filtered through to households, although weaker investment and employment could weigh on momentum going forward.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, in line with expectations. The decision aims to ensure that inflation, which reached 4.1% year over year in the quarter ended in June amid higher fuel prices due to the conflict in the Middle East, returns sustainably to the 2% target.
Our Take
The central bank will prioritize containing the secondary effects of the energy shock, even though much of the inflation stems from external factors. The move confirms a more restrictive monetary cycle, although its duration will depend on the persistence of domestic pressures and the impact of higher rates on economic activity.
Corporate News
Dell Technologies raised its fiscal 2027 revenue forecast to approximately $192 billion, from the $167 billion projected in May, driven by demand for AI servers, whose sales are expected to reach $74 billion, nearly three times the level of a year earlier. The company also raised its earnings-per-share forecast to $25.50, compared with the $19.10 consensus estimate.
Chevron agreed to invest $7 billion over five years to more than double its oil production in Venezuela, after obtaining rights to develop two fields in the Orinoco Belt. The agreement represents the largest investment commitment so far aimed at reviving Venezuela's oil industry.
Cirsa rose 17% in the stock market after agreeing to merge with Italy's Lottomatica, in a transaction under which the Spanish company will be absorbed to create one of the world's largest gaming groups.
Nvidia is reportedly close to completing its acquisition of Hugging Face — potentially as soon as this week — the open-source AI platform, in a deal valued at around $14 billion. The acquisition would strengthen Nvidia's position in the artificial intelligence ecosystem and expand its presence beyond the chip business.
The to-do list
Follow the Fed's Beige Book, released today at 12:00 p.m., for additional clues on economic conditions ahead of the September meeting.
Monitor the conflict between the United States and Iran following the second round of attacks in three days, and its impact on Brent, which remains near $95 per barrel.
Spend 30 minutes doing a circuit of burpees and squats, with no equipment and in any space at home.
Remember that today, September 2, Mexico celebrates National Cocoa and Chocolate Day.
Quote of the day…
"It is not enough to have a brilliant mind; the most important thing is to use it well."
— René Descartes
Alejandra Marcos amarcos@kapital.com
James Salazar jsalazars@kapital.com
Guillermo Quechol gquechol@kapital.com
Nahely Suasnavar nsuasnavara@kapital.com
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