Mexico's consumer confidence increased 0.4 points in June 2026 compared to the prior month.
Of the five components that make it up, only the one associated with the expected economic situation of household members declined.
Key points
The Eurozone economy stabilizes after two months of declining total activity.
The services sector contracted in the UK in June at the fastest monthly pace since January 2023.
Japan keeps the yen under close watch and intervention risks grow.
For the rest of the day, the interbank exchange rate (pesos per dollar) could trade between $17.38 and $17.48 spot.
US markets are closed today for the celebration of the 250th anniversary of independence. S&P 500 futures advance 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures rise 1.1% in reduced-volume trading. WTI operates unchanged at US$69 and Brent around US$72; some estimates foresee Brent could fall to US$60 by year-end if flows through the Strait of Hormuz fully normalize. The European Stoxx 600 advances and is on track for its best week since May, with a second consecutive close at all-time highs. Next week's agenda begins Monday with the full return of US markets, where a new corporate earnings season is approaching.
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
S&P 500
7,552
0.30%
Nasdaq
29,891
1.10%
Dow Jones
53,114
-0.10%
IPyC
67,813
1.10%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
USD/MXN
17.4393
-0.10%
EUR/MXN
19.9691
0.00%
EUR/USD
1.1448
0.20%
Índice DXY
100.79
-0.10%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Treasury 2 años
4.14
0.6bp
Treasury 10 años
4.49
0.6bp
TIIE 3 meses
6.61
2.0bp
M Bono 10 años
9.01
-0.1bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Petróleo (Brent)
71.46
-0.50%
Oro
4,173
1.20%
What you need to know about the economy and markets
Mexico's Consumer Confidence Indicator increased 0.4 points in June to stand at 43.8 units, recovering part of the prior month's retreat, though remaining 1.8 points below its level a year ago. The monthly advance was driven by a better perception of the current economic situation of the household and the country, as well as greater optimism for the purchase of durable goods. However, expectations about the future economic situation of households declined, while confidence regarding the future performance of the national economy continues to show annual deterioration.
Our Take
While the monthly rebound is a positive signal, the indicator continues to reflect a cautious environment among consumers. The improvement was concentrated in the perception of current conditions, while forward-looking expectations remain weak, suggesting that uncertainty about economic growth and the labor market continues to limit household confidence and, with it, the dynamism of private consumption.
The Eurozone economy as a whole stabilized in June after two months of declining total activity. The composite total activity PMI index rose to 50.0 points from 48.5 in May, a three-month high, standing outside contraction territory for the first time since March. This was the result of growth in the manufacturing sector offsetting the renewed decline (though more attenuated) observed in the services sector.
Our Take
There is confidence that demand will continue to improve if the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve favorably, which would allow the Eurozone to return to a growth path in the second half of the year.
The UK services sector PMI compiled by S&P Global fell in its final June reading to 48.8 points from 49.3 in May, standing at its lowest level since early 2023 and for the second consecutive month below the 50-point threshold.
Our Take
The data confirm a clear loss of momentum in the UK economy in the second quarter of 2026, after a positive start to the year. Rising prices, weak demand, and uncertainty from the Middle East conflict are the factors that have curbed investment, increased customer caution, and reduced consumption.
After marking its lowest level since 1986 against the dollar, the Japanese yen has managed to rebound, supported by a US employment report that cools expectations of a very short-term interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the continued weakness of the Japanese currency has raised market alarms and the risk of intervention is growing, with officials declaring they will respond appropriately at any moment it becomes necessary.
Our Take
The prolonged depreciation of the currency has become an increasingly larger problem for policymakers, as it raises the cost of imported raw materials and worsens the situation of households and companies already facing higher energy prices as a result of the war with Iran.
Corporate News
Exxon Mobil and Chevron will report their largest quarterly earnings since 2022 in the coming weeks, according to estimates compiled by Reuters. The jump reflects exceptional refining margins and robust exports amplifying profits amid the international scarcity of refined fuels stemming from the Iran conflict. However, with Brent back at pre-war levels but gasoline still 22% above pre-war prices, Trump has asked the DOJ to investigate possible price manipulation and the Treasury has warned of potential administrative measures.
Tesla reported deliveries of 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter, a 25% year-on-year advance, broadly surpassing consensus. Growth was driven primarily by China and Europe. However, shares fell on Thursday. The energy business also recovered. Despite the positive result, BYD reclaimed global leadership in electric vehicle sales in the quarter, surpassing Tesla.
Our Take
BYD's recovery of global leadership is significant. The Chinese company delivers 16% more electric vehicles than Tesla at a significantly lower average price, with a vertically integrated battery supply chain that gives it cost advantages Tesla cannot replicate in the short term. Nevertheless, the market has stopped valuing Tesla as a car manufacturer and evaluates it as a long-term bet on AI, robotics, and the potential merger with SpaceX, which explains why an exceptional vehicle sales result does not move the stock higher.
The to-do list
Monitor the yen throughout the day: after touching 40-year lows, the Bank of Japan's intervention risk continues to grow, and any action by Japanese authorities would generate volatility in global currency markets with an effect on emerging markets.
Follow the Exxon and Chevron estimates: with Brent back at pre-war levels but gasoline still 22% above pre-war prices, the DOJ investigation into possible price manipulation is the most relevant political risk for the energy sector this week.
Today there is a triple World Cup matchday: Australia vs. Egypt at 12:00pm, Argentina vs. Cape Verde at 4:00pm, and Colombia vs. Ghana at 7:30pm, a perfect Friday to stay in front of the screen.
Dedicate 20 minutes before the first match to jumping rope or doing a quick routine at home, the body appreciates it before an afternoon and evening of football.
Today's recommendation…
La Clandestina — a bar in Colonia Roma with a good selection of craft beers and mezcals at accessible prices, a relaxed atmosphere, and tables with a good view of the screen. The perfect plan for watching this weekend's matches.
Alejandra Marcos amarcos@kapital.com
James Salazar jsalazars@kapital.com
Guillermo Quechol gquechol@kapital.com
Nahely Suasnavar nsuasnavara@kapital.com
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