In Mexico, private consumption fell 1.6% month-on-month in January 2026
This is the largest decline since December 2024. On an annual basis, the advance was 2.7%
Markets and Stocks
US futures were rising around 0.4% in the morning in thin-volume trading, with several markets in Europe and Asia still closed for the Easter holiday. Brent was trading near US$108 and WTI around US$110. The catalyst of the day is an Axios report indicating that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing the terms of a possible 45-day ceasefire, though the same sources acknowledge that the odds of closing a deal within the next 48 hours are low. Iran responded that it would not accept the proposal under the current conditions. Additionally, Trump has set a new deadline for Iran on Tuesday. Meanwhile, OPEC warned over the weekend that damage to Gulf energy infrastructure will have a prolonged impact on global supply even after a possible ceasefire. Bitcoin surpassed $70,000 on optimism over the potential ceasefire.
Job creation in the United States exceeds expectations.
Tomorrow, Tuesday, the new ultimatum issued by Donald Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires.
In Mexico, vehicle sales grow 2.4% year-on-year in March.
Eight OPEC+ countries agree once again to increase oil production starting in May.
The Finance Ministry delivered the Pre-criteria for Economic Policy 2027 to Congress last week.
At 8am in the United States, the March ISM services figure is published, a key reference for measuring the evolution of the services sector.
What you need to know about the economy and markets
The Monthly Private Consumption Indicator (IMCP) recorded a decline of 1.6% month-on-month in January 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis, while on an annual basis it showed growth of 2.7%. By component, consumption of imported goods fell 6.8% month-on-month, and consumption of domestic goods and services declined 0.7% (goods -0.9%, services -0.5%). On an annual basis, imported consumption grew 12.2%, while domestic consumption advanced just 0.4%.
Our take
The decline in consumption in January suggests a weakening of household spending at the start of 2026, following the dynamism seen at the close of the previous year. The contraction was broad-based, though more pronounced in imported goods, which could reflect an adjustment in response to tariffs, the exchange rate, and geopolitical factors. Taken together, the data point to a moderation in consumption that could limit the momentum of domestic demand in the short term.
Gross fixed capital formation in Mexico fell 1.1% month-on-month in January 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis, accumulating an annual decline of 2.2%. By component, construction retreated 0.8% month-on-month, while machinery and equipment fell 1.1%. On an annual basis, construction grew 3.8%, but machinery and equipment recorded a decline of 8.0%, reflecting weakness in productive investment.
Our take
The decline in investment in January confirms a weak start to the year for this component, with declines in both construction and machinery and equipment. The persistent contraction in capital goods investment suggests caution on the part of businesses, while construction continues to perform more resiliently.
The US economy generated 178,000 jobs in March, the highest figure since December 2024 and well above the 65,000 forecast. Job growth was concentrated in the healthcare sector (+76,000 jobs). The unemployment rate fell one tenth to 4.3%. Meanwhile, wages increased 0.2% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year, in both cases below expectations.
Our take
Although job creation surprised to the upside, the March employment report does not change the assessment that downside risks to the labor market have increased due to the US/Israel war against Iran. What it does do is reinforce the idea that the Fed would not be in a hurry, just yet, to cut interest rates.
Tensions remain high over the armed conflict in Iran. US President Donald Trump has issued a new ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before Tuesday night. Today at 11am Mexico City time, Trump will hold a press conference to speak about the war. Additionally, information has leaked that the mediating countries (Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey) will seek in the very near term for both parties to agree to a 45-day ceasefire. Meanwhile, Iran is showing no signs of yielding. The country has intensified its attacks on energy and economic infrastructure in Gulf states such as Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates.
Our take
The ultimatum arrives amid a full escalation of the conflict, which is now entering its second month with no clear signs of an imminent resolution. This combination of coercive measures and negotiations leaves financial markets without a stable reference point.
In March 2026, 131,548 light vehicles were sold in Mexico, representing annual growth of 2.4%. In the January-to-March cumulative period, 381,632 units were sold, an increase of 3.7% compared to the same period in 2025.
Our take
The growth in vehicle sales in March and in the year-to-date cumulative figure suggests that consumption of durable goods maintains some momentum, despite the economic slowdown observed in other indicators.
The eight OPEC+ countries that previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023 (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman) decided to implement a production increase of 206,000 barrels per day. This adjustment will be implemented in May 2026.
Our Take
In reality, this decision adds very few barrels to the market. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq cannot significantly increase their production at this time due to damage sustained at their facilities. Restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity will be costly and will take some time.
Mexico's Finance Ministry delivered to Congress last week the Pre-criteria for Economic Policy 2027, a document containing projections on the evolution of economic activity and public finances for 2026 and 2027, as the basis for preparing the 2027 Economic Package to be presented in September.
Our take
The Pre-criteria 2027 reflect prudence on the oil price, optimism on economic growth expectations and Pemex production, and ambition on fiscal balance targets. The central scenario is technically possible but requires several variables to align favorably and simultaneously in an environment of global uncertainty without recent precedent.
Corporate News
Madison Air Solutions, a provider of ventilation, filtration, and cooling systems for data centers and industrial facilities, announced its intention to raise up to US$2.23 billion in its initial public offering on the NYSE under the ticker symbol "MAIR," seeking a valuation of up to US$13.2 billion. The company has benefited from the explosion in data center construction driven by demand for AI infrastructure.
Bitcoin surpassed US$70,000 on Monday for the first time in nearly two weeks, advancing more than 3.5% on optimism generated by reports of talks toward a possible 45-day ceasefire in Iran. Flows into US-listed Bitcoin ETFs remained resilient last week with net inflows of $22.3 million. However, analysts warn that low liquidity due to holidays in Europe and Asia amplifies moves in both directions, with the asset having accumulated a decline of around 45% from its all-time high near US$126,000.
The to-do list
At 11am, pay attention to Trump's press conference on Iran, the ultimatum expires tomorrow, Tuesday, and any signal on the direction of the conflict will move markets immediately.
At 8am in the US, follow the March ISM services reading, a key reference for gauging whether the services sector is holding up under the impact of the war.
Monitor oil: Brent is near $108 and the possible 45-day truce is the variable most likely to move prices today.
Review the March US employment report: 178,000 jobs created, well above expectations, confirms that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates.
Go for a walk today, it's Monday, back to the grind, and the best antidote for getting back into the rhythm is starting well physically.
Quote of the day
"The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
— Warren Buffett
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
S&P 500
6,631
0.10%
Nasdaq
24,314
0.40%
Dow Jones
46,717
0.00%
IPyC
69,568
0.00%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
USD/MXN
17.7774
-0.50%
EUR/MXN
20.5431
-0.10%
EUR/USD
1.1552
0.30%
Índice DXY
99.89
-0.10%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
Treasury 2 años
3.85
-0.2 bp
Treasury 10 años
4.33
-1.3 bp
TIIE 3 meses
6.95
2.0 bp
M Bono 10 años
9.16
0.0 bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
Petróleo (Brent)
108.43
-0.60%
Oro
4,672.69
-0.10%
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