Private consumption in Mexico maintained positive performance during April 2026. On seasonally adjusted figures, it grew 0.1% monthly and 2.1% annually. By component, consumption of domestic goods and services increased 0.6% monthly, driven by 1.1% growth in goods, though services consumption fell 0.1%. In contrast, consumption of imported goods retreated 1.5% monthly, though on an annual basis it showed a solid advance of 11.7%. With original figures, private consumption accumulated annual growth of 2.2% in the January-to-April period.

Our Take

The results confirm that household consumption continues to be one of the main drivers of economic activity, though at a more moderate pace of expansion. The slight monthly growth suggests that consumer spending maintains resilience, supported primarily by domestic goods consumption, while the monthly decline in imported goods purchases could reflect a normalization of demand following the strong growth observed in prior months.

Investor confidence in the Eurozone registered a marked recovery in July, driven by improving economic expectations and optimism around Germany, according to the survey published by consultancy Sentix. In the seventh month of the year, the confidence index advanced to -3.1 points from -13.4 points the prior month, broadly surpassing the forecast of -10.0 points.

Our Take

The improvement reported in Eurozone investor sentiment is consistent with the geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East and with signals of inflationary moderation in the bloc, factors that together reduce the probability of a recessionary scenario that had gained ground between March and April following the outbreak of the Iran war.

German industrial orders increased 1.9% in May compared to April, recovering after the 3.2% decline recorded the prior month and surpassing consensus expectations, which had pointed to a 1.0% decline in the variable for the month. The recovery was driven primarily by large orders for aircraft, ships, trains, and military vehicles, which grew 8.5%.

Our Take

May's rebound constitutes a moderately favorable signal for Germany's economy after the weakness observed in April, particularly because the improvement is not limited to large contracts and is reflected more broadly across capital, intermediate, and consumer goods.

The OPEC+ alliance agreed on Sunday to raise its oil production in August for the fifth consecutive month, adding 188,000 barrels per day from the first day of next month. The decision was adopted during a videoconference by the energy ministers of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. Following the announcement, international crude prices retreated slightly.

Our Take

The new quota increase confirms that OPEC+'s priority has shifted toward recovering market share and revenues lost during the war disruption, rather than defending prices.

Today at 8am, the US publishes its services ISM for June. May's reading stood at 54.5 points, the highest in three months and the twenty-third consecutive month in expansion territory, with an employment index that however accumulated three months of contraction and a prices index at 71.3 points, the highest since August 2022. The expectation is that in June the sector ISM moderated toward 54.0 points.

Our Take

The combination of a below-forecast manufacturing ISM and a labor market that weakened more clearly than expected introduces a downside risk bias for the June services report, after May's positive surprise.

Corporate News

SK Hynix today began the formal marketing process for its Nasdaq listing, offering 17.79 million shares through ADRs, where each ADR represents one-tenth of a share, a transaction that could raise up to US$28 billion, making it the largest listing of a foreign company on the US exchange and the second largest after SpaceX's IPO. The final price will be determined on Thursday and shares will begin trading on Friday under the symbol SKHY on Nasdaq.

Our Take

Its potential incorporation into the Philadelphia Semiconductor index could trigger significant passive purchases by funds that replicate that index. Additionally, the size of the offering is a direct test of the market's capacity to absorb new technology equity supply after SpaceX's IPO, and the potential IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic later in the year.

Broadcom announced the extension of its agreement with Apple through 2031 to develop and supply custom chips for multiple generations of Apple products. The agreement includes the Baltra chips, Apple's own AI servers intended to power Apple Intelligence functions in the cloud, which will begin deploying next year. Broadcom shares were rising around 5% in pre-market trading.

SpaceX formally joins the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, a move that could generate up to US$6 billion in forced purchases by funds that replicate the index, including the QQQ. SpaceX shares fell 8.3% in their first two trading sessions but remain approximately 37% above the IPO price, with a market capitalization of approximately US$2.4 trillion that makes it the sixth most valuable company in the world.E

The to-do list

  • Follow the US services ISM at 8:00am: consensus expects a moderation to 54.0 points from 54.5 in May, but the weakening of the June labor market introduces a downside risk bias that markets will read in terms of the probability of a Fed hike in September.

  • Watch OPEC+'s fifth consecutive production increase: the additional 188,000 barrels per day for August confirms that the cartel's priority is to recover market share, not defend prices, which will continue to push Brent toward pre-war levels.

  • It's Monday, start the week with order: define the two or three priorities for the next five days before the day's news noise changes them.

  • Tonight, prepare chiles en nogada, the most iconic dish of the season and one that deserves a quiet evening to be enjoyed at a leisurely pace.

  • Dedicate 30 minutes to a cycling session at home or outdoors; starting the week by moving your body makes a difference for everything ahead.

Today's quote…

"When you think you can't go on anymore, remember why you started."

— Anonymous proverb