Gross fixed capital formation declined 0.8% month-on-month in February 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis, accumulating an annual decline of -3.6%. By component, machinery and equipment retreated 2.3% monthly (-9.1% annually), while construction advanced slightly 0.1% monthly (+1.5% annually). In original figures, investment fell -4.2% annually, with particular weakness in the private component.

Our Take The data confirm a deceleration in investment, which could limit economic growth going forward and complicate the expected GDP rebound for Q2 2026. Although construction shows some resilience, the overall balance points to an environment of lower business confidence and caution in capacity expansion.

According to official sources cited by Axios, the United States and Iran are close to finalizing a one-page memorandum that would end the armed conflict. The agreement would contemplate Iran accepting a moratorium on nuclear enrichment. In exchange, the United States would unblock frozen Iranian funds and lift sanctions. As a counterpart, both parties would move to end restrictions on maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The first sign of de-escalation came with Donald Trump's announcement that Washington was pausing the vessel escort operation in the Strait of Hormuz (Project Liberty).

Our Take After the ceasefire announcement at the beginning of April, recent developments now seem to be on a good track toward a final peace agreement. Expectations of a deal have restored optimism to markets. Oil, the main thermometer of geopolitical tension, has reacted emphatically: Brent has fallen below the $100 per barrel threshold just two days after having surpassed $115.

In April 2026, 118,859 light vehicles were sold in the domestic market, representing annual growth of 8.6%. In the January-to-April cumulative period, sales reached 500,512 units, an increase of 4.8% annually compared to the same period in 2025. These figures include both vehicles produced in Mexico and imported.

Our Take The growth in automotive sales reflects a recovery in durable goods consumption. However, the more moderate cumulative advance suggests that domestic demand continues to expand, but at a gradual pace. Taken together, the automotive sector maintains positive signals, though its performance will continue to be conditioned by factors such as household income, financing conditions, and the global uncertainty environment.

According to ADP, US companies recorded in April the largest increase in headcount in more than a year, the latest demonstration of labor market stabilization. The private sector generated 109,000 jobs in the fourth month of the year, following a revised increase of 61,000 the prior month. More than half of the hiring increase was in health and education services.

Our Take The report shows a labor market that is recovering its equilibrium after a particularly complicated year for hiring. It is possible that some employers feel more comfortable increasing headcount now that there is greater clarity around tariffs, immigration, and other fiscal policies. Looking ahead, a key question is whether the Middle East conflict will ultimately affect employment in the United States.

The Eurozone composite purchasing managers' index compiled by S&P Global fell in its final April reading to 48.8 points (a 17-month low) from 50.7 points in March, coming in slightly above the 48.6 points of its preliminary reading. The Eurozone services PMI, also according to the final April reading, fell to 47.6 points (a 62-month low) from 50.2 points in March.

Our Take The Eurozone economy contracted for the first time in nearly a year and a half. The April figures confirm early signs of an economy heading toward a sharp slowdown, as the war in the Middle East halts the recovery that had been building before the conflict broke out.

The Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 3.4% in March compared to February, slightly more than the 3.0% increase analysts had expected. By activity segment, prices increased in March 0.7% for intermediate goods, 11.1% for energy, and 0.2% for capital goods. On an annual basis, the PPI increased +2.1% (-3.0% in February).

Our Take The impact of higher energy costs on Eurozone companies is notable. This, combined with PMI metrics in contraction territory and consumer price figures also rising, has increased the risk of stagflation in the Eurozone.

China's Services PMI (compiled by RatingDog) rose to 52.6 in April from 52.1 in March, surpassing the forecast of 52.0 and remaining firmly above the 50-point threshold separating growth from contraction. The rebound was driven by stronger growth in new business, with total orders increasing for the 40th consecutive month and at the fastest pace since February. Companies cited improved market conditions, new project launches, and promotional efforts, with domestic demand as the main driver.

Our Take China's services sector is expanding more rapidly, but the rise in oil prices from the Middle East and the weakening export outlook cloud an April reading that was otherwise solid.

Corporate News

Grupo Bimbo announced plans to invest approximately US$1 billion in the United States during the 2026–2028 period, destined for operations maintenance, product innovation, nutrition improvements, and the expansion of partnerships with suppliers in regenerative agriculture.

GAP recorded a 6.3% decline in total passenger traffic across its 12 Mexican airports in April, with Puerto Vallarta showing the sharpest drop in the portfolio at -17.0% year-on-year, reflecting the cumulative impact of higher air fares stemming from fuel costs on leisure destinations with high dependence on international tourism. Guadalajara was the positive exception with a 0.9% increase. Jamaican airports recorded additional declines due to Hurricane Melissa. OMA reported a 4.4% decline in total passengers across its 13 airports, with international traffic falling 9.8%, more than double the domestic decline (-3.4%).

GAP and OMA's April traffic data confirm what airlines had already warned in their quarterly reports: the rise in aviation fuel prices is being passed through to fares and dampening demand, especially on international routes and vacation destinations where travelers have greater price sensitivity. The April figure anticipates pressure on aeronautical revenues in the second quarter, though the margin impact will depend on how much of the increase in operating costs under OMA's new PMD and GAP's regulated fare structure can be offset by non-aeronautical revenues.

AMD reported first-quarter revenues and raised its second-quarter forecast well above consensus estimates, driven by demand for its chips for artificial intelligence data centers. The company also closed a multi-year agreement with Meta to provide processors equivalent to six gigawatts of computing capacity, with Meta obtaining the option to acquire up to 10% of AMD in shares. Intel was up 6.3%, Sandisk 6.2%, and Micron 6.5%.

Samsung reached a market capitalization of one trillion dollars after its shares rose as much as 14–16% in Seoul, becoming the second Asian company to reach that threshold alongside TSMC. The Kospi surpassed 7,000 points for the first time in its history. The record semiconductor memory earnings cycle — with Samsung reporting a 48-fold jump in chip profits — combined with the capex of more than US$700 billion announced by the hyperscalers, is transforming the valuation of Asian semiconductor companies at an accelerating pace.

Walt Disney reported second fiscal quarter earnings per share of US$1.57, above the expected US$1.51, with revenues growing 7% year-on-year. The most relevant event was that the Disney+ streaming division achieved a double-digit operating profit margin, fulfilling one of the central promises of Bob Iger's management. Disney projects 12% earnings per share growth for the full fiscal year. Shares were rising around 8% ahead of the open.

SpaceX announced it will invest US$55 billion to begin construction of Terafab, its semiconductor manufacturing complex in Texas. The goal is to create a fully vertically integrated AI chip supply chain for projects at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI. The investment arrives days after Tesla confirmed it will use Intel chip technology for Terafab and after Apple explored Intel as an alternative manufacturer.

The to-do list

Today's quote…

"Life is what happens while you are busy making other plans."

— John Lennon