US capital goods orders rebounded 0.6% month-on-month in February
The report suggests that companies were front-loading their investment plans ahead of the war with Iran.
Markets and Stocks
In the United States, markets are pointing to a negative open. The market is operating in wait-and-see mode ahead of the deadline Trump set for tonight at 6:00pm (Mexico City time), after which he threatened attacks on power plants and bridges in Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Iran rejected the ceasefire proposal and insists on a permanent end to the war, not a temporary halt. The dollar was weakening marginally and 10-year Treasury yields were holding near 4.34%. The week will be dominated by the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and the March CPI on Friday.
Key points
Today at 6pm, the ultimatum given by Trump to Iran to reach a peace agreement expires.
Economic activity as measured by Eurozone PMIs slows in March.
Investor confidence in the Eurozone falls sharply in April.
OECD headline inflation rises one tenth in February, to 3.4%.
What you need to know about the economy and markets
In the United States, capital goods orders increased 0.6% month-on-month in February 2026, following a revised decline of -0.4% in January, surpassing market expectations. In contrast, total durable goods orders fell 1.4%, affected primarily by a drop in aircraft orders, reflecting the high volatility of the transportation component.
Our take
The rebound in capital goods orders suggests that business investment maintains some momentum, even in an environment of heightened uncertainty. However, weakness in the headline figure confirms that the manufacturing sector remains exposed to the volatility of specific components such as aerospace. Taken together, the data point to investment that remains resilient at the margin, though with downside risks given the deteriorating geopolitical environment and its potential impact on corporate spending decisions.
Financial markets are focused on the evolution of negotiations between the US and Iran in an attempt to reach a ceasefire in the Middle East and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In that regard, the maximalist positions of both parties appear to make it very difficult to reach an agreement before the "new" ultimatum issued by President Trump, a deadline that expires today at 6pm Mexico City time. Iran has rejected the temporary ceasefire proposal presented by Pakistan and advocates for a permanent end to hostilities. To that end, Tehran has presented the United States with a ten-point plan that President Donald Trump believes is insufficient, though he considers it a very significant step.
Our take
Uncertainty is at its peak, with the market torn between a possible last-minute agreement, a new postponement, or an escalation of the conflict.
The Eurozone composite purchasing managers' index, the composite PMI compiled by S&P Global, fell in its final March reading to 50.7 points (a 9-month low) from 51.9 in February, though still above the 50.5 points of its preliminary reading. Meanwhile, the Eurozone services PMI, also in its final March reading, fell to 50.2 points (a 10-month low) from 51.9 in February, also coming in slightly above the 50.1 of the mid-month preliminary.
Our take
The Eurozone economy is beginning to reflect the negative impacts of the war in the Middle East. The encouraging signs of growth seen at the start of the year have faded due to the sharp rise in energy prices, supply chain disruptions, financial market volatility, and a fresh decline in demand.
The Sentix index, which assesses investor sentiment in the Eurozone, fell in April to -19.2 points from -3.1 in March, reaching its lowest level since April 2025. The current situation sub-index fell in April to -22.8 points from -9.5 the previous month, while the expectations sub-index fell to -15.5 points from +3.5 in March, with both reaching their lowest levels in a year.
Our take
The negative consequences of the sharp rise in inflation and the associated impact on demand from economic uncertainty are weighing on the sentiment of economic actors, including investors.
Year-on-year inflation in the OECD rose one tenth in February, to 3.4% compared to 3.3% in January. Specifically, it increased in 13 of the 37 OECD countries with available data and declined in 9, while it remained stable or virtually stable in the remaining 15 member countries of the multilateral body.
Our take
In its latest report and due to the war with Iran, the OECD revised its inflation forecasts upward for this year, anticipating that it will rebound to 4% in G20 countries, 1.2 percentage points more than what was projected in December.
Markets and Stocks
WTI was rising 2.3% toward US$115 per barrel and Brent remained above US$108. European natural gas continued to be pressured upward as Iran has not allowed any LNG cargo through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war. Gold was trading around US$4,663 per ounce, virtually unchanged, failing to reclaim its status as the preferred safe-haven asset in this cycle. The dollar was weakening marginally.
Corporate News
Samsung projected an operating profit of around US$37.9 billion for the first quarter of 2026, an eightfold jump compared to the same period the prior year and well above the consensus estimate. The result would surpass the entirety of 2025's operating profits, driven by demand for high-capacity memory chips for artificial intelligence infrastructure. Memory chip prices remain at historically high levels amid supply scarcity against demand accelerated by the AI investment cycle.
Anthropic revealed that demand for its Claude services has accelerated significantly in 2026, with more than 1,000 enterprise customers spending more than one million dollars annually on its platforms. The company is on track to surpass US$30 billion in annual revenue, up from a run rate of US$9 billion at the end of 2025.
Bill Ackman proposed through Pershing Square the acquisition of Universal Music Group, a deal that would value the company at around US$64 billion. Universal's shares rose as much as 24% in Amsterdam following the announcement. The company had lost more than 30% of its value over the past six months amid fears that AI-generated music could erode its revenues and margins.
Broadcom announced an agreement with Google to develop and supply dedicated chips for artificial intelligence workloads (Tensor Processing Units). Broadcom shares were up 3.6% in pre-market trading. In contrast, ASML fell 4.7% in Amsterdam after legislation was introduced in the United States to tighten export restrictions on chip manufacturing equipment to China.
The to-do list
Follow Trump's deadline tonight at 6:00pm Mexico City time, Iran's response and the US reaction will set the tone for tomorrow's market open.
Monitor oil throughout the day: WTI was rising toward $115 and any movement before the ultimatum expires could be sharp.
Prepare the analysis for Wednesday: the FOMC minutes are published and will be the clearest reference point for how the Fed views the balance between inflation and slowdown.
It's Tuesday, a good session to move forward on pending matters that couldn't be resolved yesterday.
Go for a walk or exercise today; a week this loaded with uncertainty calls for releasing tension in the middle of the day.
Quote of the day
"In moments of crisis, imagination is more important than knowledge."
— Albert Einstein.
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
S&P 500
6,620
-0.50%
Nasdaq
24,198
-0.70%
Dow Jones
46,724
-0.40%
IPyC
68,974
0.00%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
USD/MXN
17.7330
-0.10%
EUR/MXN
20.5064
0.10%
EUR/USD
1.1562
0.20%
Índice DXY
99.94
-0.10%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
Treasury 2 años
3.84
-0.6 bp
Treasury 10 años
4.33
-0.2 bp
TIIE 3 meses
6.96
2.0 bp
M Bono 10 años
9.16
0.0 bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
Petróleo (Brent)
111.03
1.20%
Oro
4,654.00
0.10%
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