Mexico's Consumer Confidence Indicator stood at 44.4 points in April 2026, representing a monthly increase of 0.2 points, though on an annual basis it recorded a decline of 1.1 points. Within the breakdown, the improvement in households' and the country's economic expectations stood out, as did the willingness to purchase durable goods, while the perception of the country's current situation showed deterioration.

Our Take

The slight monthly rebound suggests some resilience in household expectations; however, the annual decline and the deterioration in the perception of the country's current situation reflect a weaker economic environment. The improvement in forward-looking components contrasts with a more cautious assessment of the present, pointing to consumers who maintain some optimism going forward but still face limited economic conditions in the short term.

The United States and Iran have once again raised tensions in the Middle East with an exchange of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz just hours before the one-month anniversary of the start of the ceasefire between the parties, reigniting concerns about energy supply. However, Trump assures that the truce and dialogue with Iran remain in force.

Our Take

These renewed tensions in the Middle East have reignited concerns about energy supply and oil has once again surpassed $100. Despite ongoing hostilities and still-elevated oil prices, markets are pricing in a limited duration for the war.

The Bank of Mexico reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, in line with what the market had widely anticipated. The decision was not unanimous, Deputy Governors Jonathan Heath and Galia Borja voted to hold the rate unchanged, reflecting more cautious stances within the Governing Board. In its statement, the central bank indicated that this move could mark the last cut within the current monetary easing cycle and kept unchanged its projection for inflation convergence to the 3% target toward the second quarter of 2027, though it adjusted upward its short-term inflation expectations.

Our Take

Although Banxico acted consistently with what was signaled at its March meeting and with the messages the Governor conveyed at her Senate appearance, fundamental doubts persist. The main one is that it continues to be striking that the authority is downplaying the persistence of core inflation, which has remained sustainably above 4.0%. A second equally relevant question is why continue cutting the interest rate if it is already in neutral territory and is heading toward an accommodative bias.

The US International Trade Court ruled that President Trump's administration lacks legal justification to impose 10% tariffs on general imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. These levies had been introduced last February after the Supreme Court struck down the prior package of reciprocal tariffs that had been imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

Our Take

The Trump administration is expected to appeal the decision and thereby continue applying these tariffs for a time (their validity runs through July). In addition, it is likely they are already considering other measures to replace this levy, not only due to the Court's ruling but also given the possibility that Congress may not approve it. Last April, the Commerce Department opened a trade investigation under Section 301 against around 60 countries in order to justify new rates above that 10%.

Germany's industrial production contracted 0.7% in March compared to February, surprising analyst consensus negatively, they had expected an increase of 0.4%. The monthly decline was primarily a consequence of the fall in energy production (-4.0%) and in mechanical engineering output (-2.7%). In contrast, production increased in construction (+1.9%) and in the automotive industry (+1.9%).

Our Take

The decline recorded in March and the revised February data place industrial production in the first three months of the year below Q4 2025 levels, suggesting that industry will not contribute to Q1 2026 GDP growth. The drag from the energy price crisis could lead to further declines in the coming months, though survey data suggest a temporary improvement in April.

Corporate News

Nvidia announced an investment of up to US$2.1 billion in IREN, a data center developer, through a purchase right over 30 million shares at an exercise price of US$70 with a five-year expiration. Simultaneously, IREN agreed to a US$3.4 billion contract to acquire and deploy Nvidia Blackwell processors, with plans to add up to 5 gigawatts of infrastructure at the Sweetwater campus in Texas. IREN shares were rising around 10%. Nvidia also announced this week a US$500 million investment in Corning, a fiber optic cable manufacturer.

Our Take

Nvidia's pattern of investments in its ecosystem, IREN, CoreWeave, Corning, and OpenAI, has generated criticism for its circular nature: Nvidia invests in the companies that buy its chips, which reinforces demand for its own products. CEO Jensen Huang has argued that its investments represent a small fraction of the capital those companies need to raise. Nvidia is actively building an AI infrastructure ecosystem that guarantees demand for its GPUs.

Airbnb reported first-quarter gross bookings with a 9% increase in nights booked and raised its annual revenue growth guidance to between 10%–15%, accelerating from the prior low-double-digit guidance. Mexico continued to show double-digit growth in nights booked. In India, new users grew more than 75%. The company anticipates a strong summer given the tens of thousands of new hosts who have registered for the World Cup.

The to-do list

Today's recommendation…

To celebrate May 10, Mother's Day in Mexico City, Cambalache in Polanco is the ideal option: first-rate Argentine cuts, a generous wine list, and the perfect atmosphere to enjoy with mom. Reserve in advance.