President Trump cancelled attacks against Iran after reporting high-level negotiations, with a possible peace agreement signing as soon as this weekend. The signing is speculated to take place in a European city. Qatari mediators speak of "real progress," while Iran states that the main part of the memorandum of understanding text is nearly finalized. The agreement would contemplate reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, withdrawal of forces, lifting of sanctions, and release of frozen funds; the nuclear issue would be addressed later. Israel, meanwhile, carried out new attacks in southern Lebanon, a reminder that stabilization of the region depends on multiple active fronts simultaneously.

Our Take

It would not be the first time the United States proposes an agreement it believes Iran cannot refuse, only for Iran to flatly reject it or announce it never received such a peace offer. However, this time there appears to be a more positive climate, not only on the part of the US but also from other parties involved in the negotiations.

The UK's GDP contracted 0.1% in April compared to the prior month, a reading in line with consensus forecasts. In March, this economy had recorded growth of 0.3%. April marks the first monthly GDP decline in the UK since August 2025, reflecting the initial impact of economic disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict.

Our Take

Despite April's monthly retreat, the economy continued to show positive performance in quarterly terms: GDP grew 0.7% in the three months through April, suggesting that the slowdown observed during the month has not yet reversed the expansionary trend recorded at the start of 2026.

According to the final reading, Germany's Consumer Price Index fell 0.2% in May compared to April, a reading in line with its preliminary report and with expectations. With this, the annual inflation rate moderates to 2.6% from 2.9% in April, when it had reached its highest level in more than two years. Energy prices continued to be the main upward factor, with an annual increase of 6.6%, though below April's 10.1%.

Our Take

Headline inflation fell in May largely because government measures to combat rising energy prices began to take effect. This means that current inflation figures should not be interpreted as a signal that the inflationary wave has already ended.

Later in the United States, the University of Michigan consumer confidence indicator will be published (8:00am), with the market anticipating a slight rebound to 46.5 points in June from 44.8 in May, which would mark a marginal improvement after several months of weakness.

Our Take

We expect the confidence recovery to be modest and fragile. While the rebound suggested by consensus points to some stabilization, the absolute level of the indicator would remain historically low, reflecting that US households still face a complex environment. Among the factors behind this improvement would be a possible moderation in energy prices and some labor market resilience; however, relevant risks persist, such as elevated interest rates and global uncertainty (including geopolitical tensions).

Corporate News

SpaceX begins trading on Nasdaq under the symbol SPCX after having raised US$75 billion in the largest IPO in history, more than double Aramco's prior record in 2019. The company sold 555.6 million shares at US$135 each, for an initial valuation of US$1.77 trillion. Musk's net worth approaches one trillion dollars according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Retail demand exceeded US$100 billion in orders, while regulatory restrictions prevented participation from investors in mainland China and Hong Kong.

Our Take

SpaceX's debut is one of the most relevant events for capital markets and an inflection point for financial markets for several reasons. For the IPO market, SpaceX's offering validates that institutional and retail demand exists for growth assets, opening the door for the IPOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and potentially other companies in the AI ecosystem. For individual investors, it is the first opportunity to directly participate in Musk's vision, which includes Starlink, lunar flights, and orbital data centers.

Adobe reported revenue growth of 13% year-on-year, beating estimates, with earnings above consensus. Revenues from AI products more than doubled compared to what was reported last September. However, CFO Dan Durn announced his departure effective this Monday, at a moment when the company is also seeking a new CEO to succeed Shantanu Narayen, who announced his retirement in March. Shares were falling around 6%.

According to Reuters reports, Shell today announced the temporary suspension of its US$3 billion share buyback program, in effect from June 12 through market close on July 14, due to regulatory requirements linked to its acquisition process of ARC Resources, the Canadian natural gas producer it agreed to acquire for US$13.6 billion in April.

The to-do list

  • Monitor markets throughout the day: SpaceX's debut on Nasdaq under the symbol SPCX could generate significant volatility in the technology sector and in overall market sentiment, with an initial valuation of $1.77 trillion and projected gains of up to 35% on the session.

  • It's Friday, close the week without pending matters: have everything ready before 3pm and enter the weekend with a clear slate, with Mexico already sitting on three World Cup points after beating South Africa 2-0.

  • Tonight, prepare something light and simple, perhaps some quesadillas or a simple caldo tlalpeño, something that leaves time to enjoy Friday evening.

  • Dedicate 20 minutes to stretching or going for a walk, ending the week by moving your body makes a difference for arriving at the weekend in good shape.

Today's recommendation…

Today's series is The Hartung Case, available on Netflix. This Danish production follows a detective who reopens a case she believed closed and discovers nothing is what it seemed. Pure Nordic suspense, the kind that gives you chills and won't let you put down the remote until the very end.