Mexico’s private consumption appears to have lost momentum at the beginning of Q3 2026
According to the early indicator, household consumption in Mexico recorded an annual growth rate of 2.2% in July, but showed no monthly growth after increasing 0.2% in June.
Key points
U.S. retail sales surprised to the downside in July
The Eurozone economy gained momentum in the second quarter, growing 0.4%
The United States threatens Iran with economic isolation.
At 8:00 a.m., the U.S. consumer confidence index for August will be released.
For the rest of the day, the interbank exchange rate (Mexican pesos per U.S. dollar) could trade between 16.96 and 17.08 in the spot market.
Major stock markets are ending the second week of August trading sideways. So far, investors have chosen to place less emphasis on the lack of progress toward ending the war with Iran, focusing instead on artificial intelligence following strong corporate earnings that eased some concerns about massive spending in the sector, as well as expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its September meeting. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures are trading higher, near record highs, with gains of 0.10% and 0.30%, respectively. In the oil market, Brent crude has stabilized around $86.90 per barrel following Thursday's decline and is on track for a weekly gain of 4.0%, which would break a two-week losing streak, while WTI crude is edging up to $81.30 per barrel. In fixed income markets, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risen to 4.64%.
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
S&P 500
7,830
0.10%
Nasdaq
30,264
0.30%
Dow Jones
53,865
-0.10%
IPyC
65,221
0.60%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
USD/MXN
16.9961
-0.20%
EUR/MXN
19.664
0.20%
EUR/USD
1.1566
0.30%
Índice DXY
99.59
-0.40%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Treasury 2 años
4.12
-1.7 bp
Treasury 10 años
4.64
0.4 bp
TIIE 3 meses
6.58
2.0 bp
M Bono 10 años
9.13
-0.3 bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Petróleo (Brent)
86.91
-0.20%
Oro
4,374
0.60%
What you need to know about the economy and markets
Mexico's Early Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP) points to annual growth of 2.5% in June and 2.2% in July, confirming a gradual slowdown in household spending. On a monthly basis, consumption is estimated to have increased by 0.2% in June but remained unchanged in July. As a result, the index would remain at 114.2 points in both months, according to seasonally adjusted figures.
Our Take
The IOCP points to a loss of momentum in private consumption at the beginning of the third quarter, with zero monthly growth in July following only a marginal increase in June. Although household spending continues to expand on an annual basis, its weaker momentum suggests that the recovery in domestic demand remains fragile.
U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% month over month in July, a result that came in significantly below the expected 0.1% increase and lower than the revised 0.2% gain recorded in June. This was the largest decline in just over a year. Excluding automobiles, retail sales fell by 0.3%.
Our Take
This decline points to a significant slowdown in spending. Overall, the data suggest weaker demand among U.S. consumers and reinforce the view that the Fed may not need to raise interest rates in the short term.
The Eurozone economy expanded 0.4% quarter over quarter during the second quarter of 2026, in line with the preliminary estimate and accelerating from the stagnation recorded in the first quarter of the year. This was the strongest growth since the first quarter of 2025, driven by strong investment related to artificial intelligence, higher government spending, and several one-off factors that helped offset the impact of the conflict in Iran and rising energy costs.
Our Take
The data confirm that the European economy demonstrated greater resilience during the second quarter despite an adverse international environment. However, growth continues to depend heavily on fiscal stimulus and investment in technology-related sectors, while high energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty will continue to represent significant risks in the coming months.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that Washington will implement "unprecedented" economic measures against Tehran, although he did not provide many details. According to the official, the strategy will combine an unprecedented level of economic isolation with the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, preventing any goods from entering or leaving Iranian ports.
Our Take
Bessent's announcement increases the geopolitical risk premium without providing concrete details regarding its implementation, leaving markets to react more to perception than to hard data. The most sensitive issue is the reference to a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
At 8:00 a.m., the University of Michigan's U.S. consumer confidence index for August will be released. Market consensus expects the indicator to come in at 54.1 points,slightly below the 55.2 points recorded in June.
Our Take
If the forecast is confirmed, the result would reflect a moderation in U.S. consumer sentiment amid an environment marked by persistent economic uncertainty and the continuing impact of energy prices and the international geopolitical landscape.
Corporate News
OpenAI has reached annualized revenue of more than $40 billion, effectively doubling its revenue run rate compared to the end of 2025 and strengthening the company's plans to go public. This progress has been supported by strong demand for subscription services, emerging advertising initiatives, and specialized software, particularly its coding agent Codex and ChatGPT Work applications designed for businesses.
Silver Lake is in talks to acquire Workday in a deal that could become one of the largest software company acquisitions in history. Both companies have been holding discussions for several months, although no final agreement has been reached. Before the news broke, Workday had a market capitalization of approximately $43 billion; following the report, its shares rose nearly 18%, increasing its market value to approximately $51.1 billion.
Unitree, one of China's leading manufacturers of humanoid robots, is preparing to make its debut on the Shanghai Stock Exchange next week. The transaction reflects growing investor interest in the development of robotics and artificial intelligence in China, sectors considered strategic for the country's next stage of technological growth.
The to-do list
Check your Instagram account. The social media platform has redesigned its wordmark for the first time in 10 years. However, the camera icon remains unchanged.
Keep an eye on whether the S&P 500 can hold on to its record highs by the end of the week.
Remember that today marks another anniversary of the creation of Mexico's Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) in 1937.
Spend 20 minutes stretching or going for a walk. Ending the week by moving your body can make a big difference heading into the weekend.
Today's recommendation...
Maratea in Coyoacán — an Italian restaurant and specialty café located in one of the city's most beautiful neighborhoods, featuring fresh pasta and a stunning Mediterranean-style garden inside a historic mansion.
Alejandra Marcos amarcos@kapital.com
James Salazar jsalazars@kapital.com
Guillermo Quechol gquechol@kapital.com
Nahely Suasnavar nsuasnavara@kapital.com
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