US retail sales recorded a slight increase in June, affected by a decline in gasoline station revenues.
The value of US retail sales rose 0.2% monthly in June, following a revised advance of 1.0% in May. Excluding gasoline stations, sales increased 0.7%.
Key points
South Korea's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 2.75%, the first increase in three and a half years.
The United States announced 25% tariffs on certain imports from Brazil.
The UK economy returned to growth in May, supported by the services sector.
The US expands its military offensive against Iran and tensions in Hormuz grow.
For the rest of the day, the interbank exchange rate (pesos per dollar) could trade between $17.37 and $17.50 spot.
Caution around Iran and sharp losses in semiconductor stocks keep prudence prevailing in global financial markets. US futures are pointing to moderate retreats, with S&P 500 futures falling 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures retreating 0.1%, in a session where technology takes center stage as Netflix (at market close) inaugurates the second-quarter earnings season for big tech and traders absorb chip company TSMC's report. Markets also keep an eye on geopolitical tension. In this regard, several US officials have indicated that President Donald Trump is inclined to expand the country's military operations in Iran. Accordingly, the Brent reference trades at $85.10 per barrel, a marginal advance of 0.25% on the day, while WTI stands around $80 per barrel, a gain of 0.60%. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 3 basis points to 4.58%.
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
S&P 500
7,588
-0.40%
Nasdaq
29,406
-1.00%
Dow Jones
52,915
0.00%
IPyC
67,247
1.30%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
USD/MXN
17.4561
0.50%
EUR/MXN
19.9612
0.30%
EUR/USD
1.1445
-0.20%
Índice DXY
100.64
0.20%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Treasury 2 años
4.17
4.4bp
Treasury 10 años
4.59
4.5bp
TIIE 3 meses
6.56
2.0bp
M Bono 10 años
9.09
-1.0bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Petróleo (Brent)
85.88
1.10%
Oro
3,978
-2.00%
What you need to know about the economy and markets
US retail sales increased 0.2% monthly in June, in line with market expectations, following an upwardly revised growth of 1.0% in May. Although the advance was the smallest in five months, sales continued to show positive behavior, driven by vehicle and auto parts dealers (1.9%), e-commerce (1.9%), and sporting goods stores (1.3%). In contrast, gasoline station sales fell 5.3%, reflecting the decline in fuel prices. Excluding gasoline, sales grew 0.7%.
Our Take
The figures show that US household consumption continues to grow, though at a more moderate pace. The deceleration of the headline indicator was primarily influenced by the decline in gasoline sales, associated with lower energy prices, rather than a broad-based weakening of demand.
The Bank of Korea raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, the first hike since January 2023, in a unanimous decision that cited above-target inflation (3.2% annually in June, the highest in two years) and strengthening growth driven by the semiconductor export boom. The futures market anticipates at least two additional hikes in the next six months.
Our Take
The Bank of Korea's decision confirms the shift toward a tightening cycle after a year of pause. The statement indicates the bias remains restrictive and opens the door to additional hikes in the remainder of the year, widening the divergence from emerging market central banks that are still navigating cutting cycles.
The United States announced it will impose a 25% tariff on certain imports from Brazil (with exemptions for coffee, meat, and aerospace components), ending a year-long domestic trade investigation that concluded Brazilian policies unfairly restrict US trade.
Our Take
The tariff, taking effect July 22 under Section 301, confirms that Washington continues to use trade instruments in a selective and bilateral manner following the Supreme Court ruling that annulled the reciprocal tariffs.
UK economic activity recorded growth of 0.1% in May compared to April, a reading in line with market expectations. It is worth noting that UK GDP had contracted 0.1% in April. In May, the expansion was driven exclusively by the services sector, whose output increased 0.3%. This offsets the decline in industrial production (-0.5%) and the construction sector (-0.8%).
Our Take
Taken together, the data reflect an economy maintaining a moderate growth path thanks to the dynamism of the services sector, though signals of weakness in industrial and extractive activity persist, which could limit the pace of expansion in the coming months.
The United States attacked Iran for the fifth consecutive day overnight and struck a sanctioned oil tanker near the country's main crude export terminal, while tensions between both sides show few signs of diminishing. Iran responded to the US offensive against military targets such as command centers and missile sites by launching attacks against US bases in Kuwait and Jordan.
Our Take
The situation in the Middle East continues without clearing, with the parties involved maintaining targeted attacks and issuing new threats, while maintaining contradictory positions on the Strait of Hormuz. All of this only increases uncertainty, which will predictably lead investors to maintain a cautious attitude, while some opt for profit-taking.
Corporate news
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), the global leader in advanced chip manufacturing, reported a 77% increase in second-quarter earnings, reaching a record that surpassed market forecasts. Additionally, it raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to a range of $60-64 billion from the prior $52-56 billion, and announced an additional $100 billion investment to expand its manufacturing capacity in Arizona.
Uber agreed to acquire Delivery Hero in a transaction valued at $14.8 billion, offering €41.50 per share. Uber will take on Delivery Hero's operations in 50 markets, helping to increase its total presence to 99 markets, with particularly relevant expansion in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East; the company will finance the purchase with its own resources and new debt, including a €14 billion bridge loan.
Eli Lilly agreed to buy AtaiBeckley for $3.8 billion, paying $6.75 per share in cash plus up to $2.50 additional per share if clinical development milestones are met. The acquisition deepens Lilly's presence in neuroscience, an area in which the pharmaceutical company is already a global protagonist thanks to its obesity and diabetes drug franchise.
The to-do list
Monitor oil and markets throughout the day: the US attacks Iran for the fifth consecutive day.
Follow Netflix's results at the close, which inaugurates the big tech earnings season.
It's Thursday, get ahead of as much as possible before the end of the week and don't leave anything important for Friday afternoon.
Tonight, prepare fish tacos al pastor with pineapple and cilantro, fresh, quick, and among the best for a Thursday night when time is short.
Dedicate 30 minutes to a kickboxing session at home or with a guided video, one of the best workouts for releasing the week's tension and working the whole body.
Today's quote…
"Patience is not the ability to wait, but the ability to keep a good attitude while waiting."
— Joyce Meyer
Alejandra Marcos amarcos@kapital.com
James Salazar jsalazars@kapital.com
Guillermo Quechol gquechol@kapital.com
Nahely Suasnavar nsuasnavara@kapital.com
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