U.S. industrial production grows driven by manufacturing and mining
Although the sector continues to face high costs and pressures from rising energy prices.
Markets and Stocks
S&P 500 futures advanced modestly after the index’s largest gain since the beginning of the conflict, although oil resumed its upward trend after Iran attacked key energy infrastructure in the Gulf, including the Shah gas field in the United Arab Emirates. Brent crude traded above 103 dollars per barrel. The week will be dominated by monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, Australia raised interest rates for the second consecutive meeting.
Key points
Brent oil remains above 100 dollars per barrel as Iran intensifies attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.
China’s industrial production and retail sales rose more than expected in the first two months of the year.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its interest rate for the second consecutive meeting.
Investor sentiment regarding Germany’s economic outlook deteriorates.
Nvidia advances its AI chips and expects orders worth 1 trillion dollars for Blackwell and Vera Rubin.
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
S&P 500
6,717
0.20%
Nasdaq
24,702
0.10%
Dow Jones
47,108
0.30%
IPyC
65,735
0.00%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
USD/MXN
17.6634
-0.10%
EUR/MXN
20.3702
0.30%
EUR/USD
1.1531
0.20%
Índice DXY
99.72
0.00%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
Treasury 2 años
3.67
-1.5 bp
Treasury 10 años
4.20
-1.6 bp
TIIE 3 meses
7.19
2.0 bp
M Bono 10 años
9.45
0.0 bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
Petróleo (Brent)
102.74
2.50%
Oro
5,013.00
0.20%
What you need to know about the economy and markets
U.S. manufacturing production increased 0.2% month-over-month in February, following a revised 0.8% gain in January, bringing annual growth to 1.3%. The increase was driven by vehicle production and technology sectors, although the sector continues to face pressure from tariffs and higher costs. Total industrial production also rose 0.2%.
Our take
The moderate growth in manufacturing suggests the sector remains resilient, although constrained by elevated costs and distortions stemming from U.S. trade policy.
Rising tensions in the Middle East, with air strikes between Israel and Iran, continue to push oil prices higher during a week in which investors are also focused on central bank interest rate decisions, as policymakers assess the potential inflationary impact and economic damage stemming from the war in Iran.
Our take
Operators are closely watching maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The situation remains extremely fragile. Two factors are preventing a sharper escalation in oil prices: the United States’ intention to form an international coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the decision to allow the flow of Iranian oil to avoid an additional contraction in supply.
China’s industrial production grew 6.3% year-over-year in the January–February period of 2026, accelerating relative to the end of the previous year. Performance was mainly driven by manufacturing, which grew 6.6%, particularly equipment manufacturing at 9.3% and high-tech industries at 13.1%. Meanwhile, retail sales rose 2.8% in the first two months of the year, supported by elevated spending during Lunar New Year festivities.
Our take
The strong performance of industrial production and consumption suggests that China’s economy started the year with greater momentum, supported by strategic sectors such as technology and clean energy. However, it remains to be seen whether the upward trend in consumption will persist beyond holiday-related spending.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rate for the second consecutive meeting to 4.10%, stating that higher borrowing costs are needed to contain inflation. The vote was closer than expected, with five members supporting the hike and four opposing it, which led to a sharp decline in the Australian dollar. This split decision foreshadows the debates likely to occur in other central bank committees in the coming days.
Our take
The increase in uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict could add inflationary risks both domestically and globally. In this context, the central bank expects inflation to remain above target for some time, with risks skewed to the upside.
The ZEW index, which measures economic sentiment among large investors and analysts in Germany, fell in March to negative 0.5 points from 58.3 in February, well below the consensus expectation of 33.9. This places the index at its lowest level since April 2025 and marks the third-largest monthly drop in its history.
Our take
The ZEW index has collapsed. The escalation in the Middle East is driving up energy prices and increasing inflationary pressures, raising the risk that Germany’s nascent economic recovery could slow.
At its annual GPU Technology Conference, Nvidia presented its latest advances in artificial intelligence. Its CEO, Jensen Huang, stated that expected orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin could reach 1 trillion dollars by 2027. The company also anticipates that growth in 2026 will exceed last year’s projections, which estimated a 500 billion dollar revenue opportunity for both systems.
Our take
Beyond the immediate market reaction, the message is significant because it reinforces the idea that Nvidia remains a key barometer of appetite for technological growth. Each time the company signals stronger-than-expected structural demand, markets recalibrate upward the sector’s potential.
Markets and Stocks
In international markets, European equities posted gains, with the Stoxx 600 rising around 0.6%, as investors continue to assess the economic impact of the Middle East conflict and the possibility of more restrictive monetary stances from central banks. In Asia, trading was mixed, with South Korea recording gains
In commodities, oil resumed its upward trend amid supply risks stemming from attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent once again above 103 dollars per barrel and WTI approaching 95 dollars. Precious metals showed limited movements.
Corporate News
Mastercard announced the acquisition of BVNK, a London-based stablecoin infrastructure startup, for a deal that includes up to 300 million dollars in contingent payments, bringing the total value to as much as 1.8 billion dollars. The transaction comes four months after similar negotiations between BVNK and Coinbase failed to materialize. Mastercard had earlier announced a network of partnerships with more than 85 companies in the digital asset ecosystem.
Nebius Group, a developer of artificial intelligence data centers, announced plans to issue 3.75 billion dollars in convertible notes across two tranches. The proceeds will be used to expand data center infrastructure and acquire specialized chips. Recently, Meta announced a contract of up to 27 billion dollars with Nebius for access to computing capacity, in addition to Nvidia’s 2 billion dollar investment last week.
The to-do list
Stay attentive to the multiple monetary policy meetings scheduled for this week, especially the Federal Reserve’s decision.
Keep a close eye on developments in the Middle East, as new events could have direct implications for the conflict and markets.
Choose the book you will read this week and place it somewhere visible to stay consistent.
Stretch for ten minutes before going to sleep, your body will appreciate it at the start of the week.
Quote of the day
“When power and resources are exhausted, the nation itself collapses.”
Sun Tzu.
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