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In the second quarter of 2026, Mexico’s aggregate supply and demand grew 1.7% quarter over quarter and 5.7% year over year. On the supply side, GDP rose 1.4% and imports increased 2.3% from the previous quarter. On the demand side, the strongest contribution came from exports, which grew 9.3%, and fixed investment, which rose 4.3%, while private and public consumption each increased 0.9%.

Our Take The composition points to an acceleration driven mainly by the external sector and a recovery in investment, while consumption posted moderate growth. However, the sharp 13.8% annual increase in imports virtually offset exports’ contribution to GDP, meaning the positive reading does not yet indicate a broad-based strengthening of domestic demand.

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Sales at retail chains affiliated with ANTAD rose 1.7% year over year on a same-store basis in August, supported by back-to-school spending, while total-store sales increased 4.2%. Performance was uneven: comparable sales fell 0.7% at supermarkets, but rose 2.8% at department stores and 4.1% at specialty stores.

Our Take Nominal growth in comparable sales remained below inflation, pointing to a contraction in real terms and confirming that private consumption continues to lose momentum. The seasonal boost from back-to-school spending was not enough to fully offset weakness in disposable income. The decline at supermarkets is particularly noteworthy, as it signals greater moderation in spending on frequently purchased consumer goods.

UK retail sales rose 0.5% month over month in August, reversing July’s decline and beating market expectations for a contraction of between 0.1% and 0.2%. Sales increased 2.4% from a year earlier, driven by online, department-store and apparel sales, while fuel sales declined as prices rose.

Our Take The upside surprise confirms that UK consumption remains more resilient than expected and provides a positive signal for third-quarter growth. However, part of the increase reflected temporary factors, including warm weather, promotions, back-to-school spending and the rebound from inventory disruptions in July.

Today at 7:15 a.m., the United States releases its industrial production figures. We expect output to have grown between 0.2% and 0.3% month over month in August, following a 0.2% increase in July. Manufacturing likely maintained moderate growth, supported by a recovery in auto production and strength in capital goods, while capacity utilization may have edged up from 76.3% to around 76.5%.

Our Take A reading within this range would confirm that the industrial sector remains on a positive trajectory, although the pace is still insufficient to signal a broad-based acceleration. Momentum remains concentrated in capital goods, technology and defense, while consumer-goods production faces softer demand and higher input costs.

Corporate news

Warren Buffett, 96, will step down as chairman and assume the honorary title of chairman emeritus, although he will remain a director and continue contributing his expertise. His son, Howard Buffett, will take over as chairman to preserve the company’s corporate culture, while Greg Abel will continue to oversee operations as chief executive officer. The move completes the succession process launched in early 2026.

Nestlé is evaluating its options following the intervention of its Russian business. The Kremlin placed Nestlé’s Russian operations under temporary administration and transferred control to LEV Management as part of a new crackdown on companies from countries deemed hostile. The Swiss company is assessing legal and operational alternatives to protect its rights, employees and business continuity.

Anthropic quietly opened a biology laboratory in the San Francisco area to complement its computational models with physical experiments and explore the use of Claude in the automation of scientific research. The company aims to accelerate preclinical research into underserved diseases and molecules considered difficult to develop.

The “to-do list”

  • Monitor the market’s and the yen’s reaction to the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise rates to their highest level since 1995 despite a split vote.

  • Keep an eye on geopolitical developments, particularly potential news regarding negotiations between the United States and Iran.

  • Complete 3 rounds: 30 seconds of jumping jacks, 12 chair dips by bending your elbows and 15 bottle curls by bringing your hands toward your shoulders. Rest for 20 seconds between exercises and repeat using slow, controlled movements.

  • Remember that on this day, Soraya Jiménez became the first Mexican woman to win an Olympic gold medal after lifting a combined 215 kg in weightlifting at the Sydney Games.

Today’s recommendation…

This weekend, make time to visit La Once Mil, chef César de la Parra’s taquería. It was named “Culinary Phenomenon of the Year” by the Guía México Gastronómico 2026. The concept centers on signature tacos featuring premium cuts served on handmade, freshly prepared nixtamalized corn tortillas. It elevates the neighborhood taquería into a gourmet experience without losing its casual atmosphere—there are no reservations and seating is communal.