The conversations planned for this Friday between the United States and Iran in Switzerland regarding the implementation of the 14-point agreement to end the conflict were abruptly cancelled. Today's meeting was to serve as the protocol for the official signing ceremony of the Memorandum of Understanding (already signed "remotely") and would have been used to begin negotiations on Iran's nuclear program.

Our Take The abrupt cancellation raises certain doubts about the durability of the peace agreement, particularly in global financial markets. The cancellation of the Switzerland meeting could suggest that the preliminary agreement between Washington and Tehran is born on fragile foundations.

In Japan, consumer inflation stood at 1.5% annually in May, one tenth above April's reading, driven by the moderation in the declines of electricity and gas prices as government subsidies to the energy sector continued to be reduced. Core inflation, which excludes fresh food and incorporates energy and is the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) reference metric, remained stable at 1.4% for the second consecutive month.

Our Take

Japan's inflation has remained contained throughout 2026 primarily due to government subsidies on fuel prices and electricity tariffs, measures that deliberately offset the rise in energy costs from the Middle East conflict. However, once the energy subsidies are withdrawn or reduced, inflation could escalate robustly.

Germany's Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded a monthly increase of 0.3% in May, decelerating significantly from the 1.2% increase observed in April and coming in below the analyst consensus forecast of 0.7%. With this result, the monthly variation reaches its most moderate level since February. On an annual basis, the PPI stood at 2.2%, its highest reading in three years, reflecting the pressures that the Middle East conflict has exerted on energy and raw material costs in Germany's production chain.

Our Take

The data suggest a slight rebound in inflationary pressures in Germany, driven primarily by rising energy costs and intermediate goods. However, the moderation of the monthly advance indicates that the pass-through of these prices to final prices remains limited.

In the United Kingdom, retail sales rebounded 1.2% monthly in May, a result that broadly surpassed the 0.3% forecast by analyst consensus and contrasts with the 1.0% decline recorded in April. This is the best monthly performance in four months and consolidates a recovery of private consumption after the weakness observed at the start of the second quarter. On an annual basis, growth accelerated to 3.2% from April's 0.1%.

Our Take

The data suggest that private consumption maintains a more robust tone than expected, supported by temporary factors such as weather and commercial promotions, reinforcing signals of resilience in British household spending. The likely continuation of promotions during the summer and the possibility of higher spending associated with the World Cup could consolidate some additional momentum.

Corporate News

Amazon is in conversations to sell its AI chips to other companies for use in their own data centers, an expansion of its strategy to compete against Nvidia's dominance. Peter DeSantis, Amazon's head of AI, confirmed the conversations without revealing potential customers. The latest version of its Trainium chip is practically sold out and has generated more than US$225 billion in committed revenues, with anchor customers such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Uber.

Our Take

The decision to open its chip to external customers follows the same path that Alphabet traced with its TPU chips in April, seeking to monetize its investment in proprietary silicon beyond its own data centers to capture a larger share of AI infrastructure spending that currently flows almost entirely to Nvidia.

BHP reported on Thursday an increase in its investment estimate for the second stage of its Jansen potash project in Canada, to US$6.9 billion from the prior US$4.9 billion, a US$2.3 billion charge attributed to inflation, design development, and other cost pressures. This is the third time the company has exceeded its cost estimates across the two stages of the project.

The to-do list

  • Monitor oil and markets throughout the day: the Switzerland talks were abruptly cancelled after Iran did not send a delegation following new clashes in Lebanon, raising doubts about the durability of the memorandum, with Brent trading near $80.

  • Watch for July 1: the virtual meeting between Mexico, the US, and Canada will define the USMCA path, and the fact that the second round concluded without concrete agreements confirms that negotiations remain in an exploratory phase.

  • It's Friday, close the week without pending matters: have everything ready before 3pm and enter the weekend with a clear slate.

  • At 6:30pm Brazil vs. Haiti kicks off at the World Cup, prepare something light to snack on and enjoy one of the most anticipated matches of the day.

  • This weekend, dedicate 30 minutes to dancing at home, a Zumba class on YouTube or simply put on music and move, the body appreciates exercise that also lifts the spirit.

Today's recommendation…

El Ocho Café Recreativo, at Av. México 111, Hipódromo Condesa, Cuauhtémoc. A café with a Chavo del Ocho theme, board games, and an atmosphere that combines Mexico City nostalgia with good company. The perfect plan for this World Cup weekend.