Mexico's economic activity likely expanded 0.3% monthly in April
If confirmed by the Early Economic Activity Indicator, this would be the largest monthly increase in six months.
Markets and Stocks
S&P 500 futures were retreating 0.4% and the Nasdaq was falling 0.7% in the morning, continuing the losing streak, with tech stocks extending their correction on rising bond yields and the lack of resolution in the Middle East. Brent was retreating modestly toward US$110 after Trump revealed he cancelled new attacks on Iran planned for yesterday at the request of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf allies, signaling there are possibilities of reaching an agreement to limit Iran's nuclear program. However, Iran's most recent proposal was rejected. The 10-year Treasury yield was rising toward 4.62%. A California jury rejected Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman. Google and Blackstone announced the creation of an AI cloud joint venture that will compete with CoreWeave. Home Depot reported sales slightly below estimates.
Key points
Trump announces he cancelled an attack on Iran planned for today, Tuesday.
Japan's economy grows 0.5% in the first quarter of the year.
The UK unemployment rate rises to 5% at the close of March.
For the rest of the day, the interbank exchange rate (pesos per dollar) could trade between $17.xx–$17.xx spot.
What you need to know about the economy and markets
The Early Economic Activity Indicator (IOAE) estimates that the IGAE would have grown 0.3% annually and 0.3% monthly in April 2026. By sector, tertiary activities would show an annual advance of 0.7%, while secondary activities would record a decline of -1.0% annually. On a monthly basis, both secondary and tertiary activities would have increased 0.3%. The indicator thus anticipates a slight improvement compared to March, when estimated annual growth was just 0.1%.
Our Take
The IOAE suggests that Mexico's economic activity maintains weak growth, though with some stabilization at the margin during April. The persistent contraction of secondary activities continues to reflect industrial and manufacturing weakness, while services continue to partially sustain growth. Taken together, the indicator points to an economy with low dynamism, in an environment affected by global slowdown and trade uncertainty.
US President Donald Trump announced that at the request of Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, he has ordered the cancellation of an attack on Iran that had been scheduled for today, Tuesday, to allow margin for negotiations that could be taking place today.
Our Take Diplomatic contacts are intensifying and contacts through Pakistani mediators continue. However, with the Middle East conflict entering its third month, few prospects for a quick and lasting agreement between the US and Iran, and with it, a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, are yet visible.
Japan's GDP grew 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, its largest expansion since Q3 2024, surpassing the consensus of 0.4% and accelerating from the revised 0.2% of the prior quarter. On an annual basis, growth was 2.1%, well above the expected 1.7%. The main economic drivers were exports, which advanced 1.7% driven by autos and technology, and public investment, which grew 1.4%, its first advance in three quarters. Private consumption contributed modestly with a 0.3% rise.
Our Take These figures do not yet fully reflect the impact of the war in Iran, which began at the end of February. Looking ahead, growth could remain weak for the rest of the year, as the Middle East conflict clouds the outlook.
In the United Kingdom, the unemployment rate rose to 5.0% in the January-to-March quarter, above market expectations and the 4.9% recorded in the prior quarter. Despite the rise in the rate, the number of unemployed fell by 77,000 people to 1.806 million, driven primarily by declines among those unemployed for up to six months and for twelve months, though on a year-on-year basis, unemployment increased by 192,000 people with rises across all duration ranges.
Our Take
Today's report confirms that the UK labor market is going through a phase of gradual but sustained cooling, which complicates the Bank of England's actions, with this data, it should continue cutting the interest rate, but on the inflation side there is strong speculation about increases in the cost of borrowing.
Corporate News
A California jury rejected Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman on Monday, determining that Musk waited too long to file the legal action and failed to prove that OpenAI betrayed its original mission by becoming a for-profit company. Musk had claimed more than US$134 billion in damages, arguing that he had donated money under the understanding that OpenAI would remain a nonprofit organization. Musk announced he will appeal the ruling.
Alphabet and Blackstone announced the creation of an AI cloud services joint venture that will use Google's own TPU chips, rather than Nvidia GPUs, to offer computing capacity to companies seeking alternatives. The announcement pressured shares of CoreWeave, Nebius Group, and Applied Digital, which compete in the same AI cloud infrastructure space.
Home Depot reported quarterly same-store sales of +0.6% year-on-year, slightly below consensus estimates, with earnings per share beating expectations. CFO Richard McPhail noted that consumers continue to postpone large projects amid greater uncertainty, though changes in spending behavior have not yet materialized in a significant way. The company maintained its full-year guidance. Elevated mortgage rates, which have risen alongside bond yields as a result of the Iran conflict, continue to be the main obstacle to a housing market recovery.
The to-do list
Follow the Iran negotiations closely: Trump cancelled the attack at the request of Gulf allies and diplomatic contacts are intensifying, any signal of an agreement will move oil immediately.
Tomorrow, Wednesday, the FOMC minutes arrive along with Nvidia's results, two of the most relevant events of the week; it is worth preparing the analysis today.
It's Tuesday, a good day to advance pending matters before the information load of Wednesday arrives.
Tonight, try making the vegetable curry that was left pending from Monday, it's one of those recipes that takes 40 minutes and few ingredients but surprises.
Go for a bike ride in the afternoon, either with your own bicycle or take advantage of the Ecobici system that Mexico City offers with accessible plans and rates.
Today's quote…
"Patience is not the ability to wait, but the ability to keep a good attitude while waiting."
— Joyce Meyer
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
S&P 500
7,402
-0.30%
Nasdaq
28,918
-0.60%
Dow Jones
49,686
-0.20%
IPyC
68,244
-0.20%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
USD/MXN
17.3412
0.40%
EUR/MXN
20.1349
0.10%
EUR/USD
1.1617
-0.30%
Índice DXY
99.24
0.10%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Treasury 2 años
4.09
0.5bp
Treasury 10 años
4.63
1.0bp
TIIE 3 meses
6.64
2.0bp
M Bono 10 años
9.37
0.0bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Petróleo (Brent)
110.55
-1.40%
Oro
4,523
-1.00%
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