Donald Trump announced an indefinite ceasefire in the Middle East, while also reaffirming that the naval blockade of the strait by US forces would remain in place during this period. The president indicated he wants to give Iranian authorities time to unify their positions and return to the negotiating table. Iran, for its part, assured it would return to negotiations when "necessary and reasonable conditions" are met, without specifying what those conditions are.

Our take

While an indefinite ceasefire can be considered the least bad outcome in the current context, it does not change the fact that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to waterway traffic, and every day that passes this way the energy crisis worsens. Markets remain trapped between cautious optimism and renewed concern over the armed conflict. 

The ceasefire between the United States and Iran continues to hang by a thread. Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced on Wednesday that it intercepted two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, deeming them in violation of maritime laws, and transferred them to its coast. These attacks occurred shortly after President Donald Trump said the United States would extend the ceasefire indefinitely.

Our take

Iran's aggression against two container ships attempting to cross the waterway pushed Brent oil prices back toward $100 per barrel. Attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf over recent weeks have heightened fears of a prolonged economic impact. 

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebounded 0.7% in March compared to February, its strongest monthly increase since April 2025. On an annual basis, inflation rose to 3.3% from 3.0% in February, its highest level in three months. The rebound in March inflation was driven in part by transportation and fuel prices, largely due to the impact of the war in the Middle East.

Our take

Inflation had been on track to reach the 2% target in the second quarter, paving the way for further rate cuts by the Bank of England. Now, however, it is expected to hold around 3% and accelerate in the third quarter, increasing the possibility of rate hikes instead. At the April 30 meeting, the monetary authority would leave borrowing costs unchanged, while seeking greater clarity on the impacts of the armed conflict. 

At his Senate hearing, Kevin Warsh, nominated by Donald Trump to lead the Federal Reserve, stated that he has made no promises on rate cuts and defended the independence of monetary policy, though he outlined an agenda of "robust reforms" in communication and inflation measurement.

Our take

The message combines a formal defense of Fed independence with a critical stance toward its current framework, suggesting a possible shift in the conduct of monetary policy if confirmed. Additionally, the door to his nomination appears to be opening after Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who had been reluctant to vote in favor, suggested that the Senate itself carry out the investigation into the Fed's cost overruns, allowing the Department of Justice to end its investigation into Powell. 

At 8:00am, the Eurozone consumer confidence figure for April will be published. In March, the indicator stood at -16.3 points, while market consensus anticipates a deterioration to -17.2 points, which would suggest greater pessimism among households in the region.

Our Take 

The expectation of a decline in consumer confidence is aligned with the increase in global uncertainty, particularly from tensions in the Middle East and their impact on energy prices. This environment could be affecting households' economic outlook, weakening consumption and reinforcing a cautious bias in short-term economic activity. 

Corporate News

Chedraui reported mixed results at the close of Q1 2026. Revenues declined 6.2% and EBITDA contracted 3.8% annually, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 8.6%, practically stable compared to the same period the prior year. These results were influenced by the appreciation of the peso against the dollar. The company reiterated its 2026 guidance (opening 147 stores in Mexico, revenue growth of between 8% and 9%, and an EBITDA margin improvement of 15–35 basis points). The earnings call will take place at 9:00am.

Our Take 

The figures were mixed. While revenues came in below consensus expectations, EBITDA exceeded forecasts, maintaining an EBITDA margin in line with its historical median. The deterioration in the US is contained to the Hispanic segment and is related to the current anti-immigration climate. 

Nemak reported neutral results in Q1 2026. Revenues grew 15.3%, driven by the consolidation of GF Casting Solutions and higher aluminum prices. However, operating cash flow declined 14.5%, as a result of extraordinary costs associated with the North American integration and wage pressures stemming from the strengthening of the peso. The earnings call will take place at 11:00am.

Our take

The integration of GF Casting Solutions is shaping up as a strategic strengthening factor through the expansion of technological capabilities and portfolio diversification. The contraction in operating cash flow reflects extraordinary costs concentrated in North America. We will closely monitor any guidance adjustments, in which Nemak anticipates operational normalization; the next quarters will be decisive in validating the capture of synergies from the GF Casting acquisition. 

América Móvil reported positive figures in Q1 2026. At constant exchange rates, revenues grew 6.1% and EBITDA advanced 8.0%, though the latter was aided by an extraordinary gain from a television rights litigation in Chile; excluding that effect, EBITDA would have grown approximately 7.0%. The company continued expanding its postpaid subscriber base by three million new users across virtually all regions, offsetting the contraction recorded in the prepaid base. The earnings call will take place at 9:00am.

Our take

Results came in above consensus, with Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia as the main growth drivers. América Móvil maintains a stable growth trajectory, underpinned by the migration of subscribers toward higher-profitability schemes such as postpaid. Brazil retains a favorable outlook, and the acquisition of Desktop would contribute to strengthening its position in a highly competitive market. 

Grupo Financiero Banorte closed Q1 2026 with portfolio growth of 6.0% annually, affected by the behavior of the government segment; excluding that effect, the portfolio would have grown 8.0% annually. Net income remained practically stable, pressured by an increase in provisions. Both the net interest margin (NIM) and ROE remained within the ranges established in the 2026 guidance. The earnings call will take place at 9:00am.

Our take

A factor to monitor is the dynamic of the cost of risk throughout 2026, particularly given the increase in provisions recorded in the quarter. Management clarified that this increase reflects the integration of the Tarjetas del Futuro portfolio, the recalibration of internal risk models, and the constitution of additional reserves. ROE remains at attractive levels; however, in terms of valuation, GFNORTE trades at a premium relative to its peers and its historical average. 

Fresnillo, Industrias Peñoles' main subsidiary, published its Q1 2026 production report. Production declined in both gold and silver, stemming from lower ore grades and zero production from Silverstream. However, production guidance is maintained.

Our take

The figures are in line with the company's expectations and with sector trends, particularly among silver miners, where lower ore grades and longer development times have impacted production levels. Peñoles will publish its results on April 27. 

Boeing reported a cash burn of US$1.45 billion in the first quarter, better than estimates, with deliveries of 143 aircraft, the highest level since 2019. Revenues rose 14%. The defense division grew 21% with margins improving to 3.1%. The company maintained its free cash flow guidance of between US$1 billion and US$3 billion for the year. Shares were up around 3.8% in pre-market trading.

AT&T reported first-quarter revenues 2.9% higher, beating estimates, with earnings per share of US$0.57. The company added new mobile customers above expectations.

According to Bloomberg reports, Deutsche Telekom is in talks for a merger with T-Mobile US, which would create the world's largest telecommunications company by market capitalization. The structure under consideration involves the creation of a holding company that would make an all-stock offer for both companies and seek simultaneous listings in the US and Europe. The transaction would face significant hurdles: the German government and state bank KfW jointly control around 28% of Deutsche Telekom and would have to approve it.

The to-do list

Quote of the day

"Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away."

— Maya Angelou