The Mexican labor market showed a slight moderation in June 2026, with an unemployment rate of 2.9%, above the 2.7% recorded in the same month of 2025. The Economically Active Population (EAP) stood at 61.9 million people, 48 thousand more than a year earlier, while the economic participation rate fell to 58.8% from 59.8% in June 2025. The underemployment rate declined to 6.6% and labor informality stood at 55.0%.

Our Take

While the unemployment rate posted a slight annual increase, it remains at low levels from a historical perspective, so the labor market maintains relatively stable conditions. However, the decline in the economic participation rate and the rise in informality suggest a moderation in employment momentum, in a context where economic activity has shown signs of deceleration.

Eurozone private sector economic activity returned to growth territory in July, according to the PMI index. The flash seasonally-adjusted composite PMI index of total activity for the region registered 51.9 points in July, an improvement from the 50.0 reading in June, which indicated no change. The index revealed the first expansion in total activity in four months, though growth was modest overall.

Our Take

This result represents the best performance since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, as the manufacturing industry enjoys its strongest growth boom since early 2022 and the services sector is driven by a solid recovery in commercial activity following three months of decline. The continuation of this recovery will depend largely on how the armed conflict evolves.

Japan's headline inflation accelerated to 1.7% year-over-year in June, up from 1.5% in May. Core inflation, the Bank of Japan's preferred reference measure excluding fresh food, advanced to 1.6% year-over-year, in line with market expectations and above the 1.4% recorded in May, marking its first uptick since March. Nevertheless, the indicator remained below the central bank's 2.0% target for the fifth consecutive month.

Our Take

The uptick in inflation suggests that the pass-through of higher costs to consumers is beginning to gain traction, albeit gradually. Going forward, pressures could intensify as increases in producer prices, driven by rising energy costs and yen depreciation, feed through to consumer prices, keeping open the possibility of further adjustments to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

Later, at 7:45 a.m., S&P Global's preliminary PMI indices for the United States corresponding to July will be released. Consensus anticipates that the manufacturing PMI will rise to 54.5 points from the 53.9 recorded in June, while the services PMI would climb to 51.5 points from 51.2. If these expectations are confirmed, both indicators would remain in expansion territory, reflecting an economy that continues to show resilience at the start of the third quarter.

Our Take

The PMIs will be relevant for assessing whether the U.S. economy maintains its momentum following a solid performance in the first half of the year. An improvement in both indices would reinforce the perception that both manufacturing activity and the services sector continue to expand, supporting moderate economic growth. This scenario would give the Federal Reserve room to maintain a cautious stance regarding future interest rate adjustments, particularly if the strength of activity continues to be accompanied by persistent inflationary pressures.

Corporate News

Intel posted solid second-quarter results, with significant revenue growth driven by a recovery in its data center, artificial intelligence, and PC processor businesses. The company exceeded market expectations and improved its operating outlook, reflecting progress in its manufacturing strategy and foundry business execution.

Our Take

The report reinforces Intel's recovery narrative after several quarters of competitive pressure, though the market will continue monitoring the company's ability to convert AI-driven demand into sustainable growth and structural profitability improvements.

Arca Continental reported resilient results for the second quarter of the year in a challenging consumption environment. While sales and EBITDA remained virtually unchanged from the prior year, the company managed to preserve a solid EBITDA margin of 20.7. The decline in net income reflects greater pressures from the new tax environment in Mexico and volatility in certain markets. Overall, the report reinforces the issuer's capacity to sustain its profitability, even in a context of reduced consumer momentum.

Cemex posted solid second-quarter results, with a record EBITDA for a second quarter, driven by operational efficiencies, cost discipline, and the execution of its Cutting Edge program. The company raised its savings target for 2026 and improved its operating outlook, reinforcing the resilience of its margins in an environment of moderate demand. Despite these results, the market's initial reaction was moderately negative, suggesting profit-taking following the strong cumulative performance or expectations already priced in.

The To-Do List

  • Follow the preliminary U.S. PMIs: consensus expects both to remain in expansion territory, and an upside surprise would reinforce the economic resilience narrative.

  • Keep an eye on oil, as price volatility is generating an impact across most financial markets.

  • Today, July 24, marks International Tequila Day, a date that recognizes the cultural importance of this iconic Mexican beverage.

  • This weekend, dedicate 30 minutes to dancing at home, a Zumba class on YouTube, or simply put on some music and move. Your body appreciates the exercise, and it lifts your spirits too.

Today's recommendation…

Itálico Trattoria at Mitikah — contemporary Italian cuisine with fresh pastas, seasonal ingredients, and an atmosphere that pairs well with a Friday dinner.