According to the final estimate, Germany's GDP grew 0.3% quarter over quarter in Q2 2026, one-tenth higher than the preliminary estimate and above consensus expectations. Nevertheless, the pace of expansion slowed from the 0.4% recorded in Q1 2026. As in the first quarter, exports were the main driver of growth. On an annual basis, GDP increased 1.0%, up from 0.8% in the previous quarter.

Our Take

Germany's stronger-than-expected GDP growth confirms a gradual recovery in Europe's largest economy. The improvement reduces the risk of another contraction, although the pace remains modest and does not change the perception of a still-fragile recovery.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent presented details yesterday of “Operation Economic Outcast,” through which Washington seeks to isolate the Iranian government and sanction those providing financial support to the country. The new measures target five key sources of financing: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and maritime transportation.

Our Take

The main risk for markets is not the impact on Iran's already weakened economy, but rather a potential expansion of sanctions to Chinese entities, the main destination for Iranian oil. This could open a new front of tension between the United States and China and increase uncertainty surrounding trade and energy markets.

Later today, The Conference Board's U.S. consumer confidence index for August will be released. Consensus points to a moderation in confidence, with an expected reading of 90.2 points, compared with 90.8 points in July. The release will be relevant for assessing households' perceptions of economic conditions and their potential impact on private consumption.

Our Take

We expect consumer confidence to remain on a weak trajectory amid pressure on purchasing power and greater caution regarding the economy. A reading near 90.2 points would reinforce signs of moderating consumption, although it would not necessarily imply a contraction in domestic demand.

Corporate News

Lambda, a cloud computing company specializing in artificial intelligence infrastructure and backed by Nvidia, is in talks with investors to raise up to $3 billion in a new funding round. The transaction could value the company at several billion dollars and strengthen its ability to expand infrastructure and meet growing demand for AI computing capacity.

Volkswagen worker representatives warned that the automaker's planned cuts could affect up to 140,000 jobs worldwide. The measure reflects the pressure facing the group to reduce costs and improve competitiveness amid weak demand, higher production costs, and growing competition, particularly from Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers.

Oura Health, the manufacturer of smart rings focused on monitoring health, physical activity, and sleep, and some of its investors are seeking to raise up to $3 billion through an initial public offering in the United States. The transaction could value the company at more than $16 billion, positioning it as one of the leading players in the growing market for health and wellness-focused wearable devices.

The to-do list

  • Review the August U.S. consumer confidence reading following the warning signs from Walmart last week regarding consumer spending.

  • Monitor the dispute between the U.S. and China over sanctions against Iran, and any signs that it could affect bilateral relations.

  • Keep an eye on the cryptocurrency market, as Bitcoin surpassed $80,000 for the first time since May.

  • Tonight, prepare spaghetti with roasted tomato sauce and fresh basil, quick, simple, and perfect for a Tuesday night when time is limited.

  • Spend 30 minutes swimming or exercising in the pool, one of the most complete forms of exercise with minimal impact on the joints.

Quote of the day...

"Discipline is doing what you have to do, even when you don't feel like it."

— Elbert Hubbard