Mexican exports grow 32.6% annually in April, their largest increase in five years.
In the January-to-April cumulative period, the advance is 21.8% annually.
Markets and Stocks
US markets remain closed for Memorial Day, with low-liquidity operations in the session. Nevertheless, futures for the major indices were trading with gains. The day's main movement belongs to oil: WTI falls 5.5% to US$91 per barrel and Brent retreats nearly 6% to levels near US$98, after US officials signaled over the weekend they are close to a framework agreement with Iran for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, though Tehran clarified that a signing is not imminent. Treasuries are not operating due to the holiday, with the German 10-year bond shedding 9 basis points to 2.95%. Meanwhile, the dollar was weakening slightly, benefiting commodities such as gold, which rises 1.3%. The week's catalysts include the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data on Friday, inflation readings in Europe, and the hour-by-hour evolution of the talks with Iran via Pakistan.
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
S&P 500
7,562
0.90%
Nasdaq
29,955
1.30%
Dow Jones
51,143
1.00%
IPyC
68,210
-0.20%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
USD/MXN
17.2524
-0.30%
EUR/MXN
20.094
0.10%
EUR/USD
1.1646
0.40%
Índice DXY
98.94
m-0.30%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Treasury 2 años
4.12
-0.4bp
Treasury 10 años
4.56
-1.4bp
TIIE 3 meses
6.67
2.0bp
M Bono 10 años
9.36
0.0bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Petróleo (Brent)
97.60
-5.70%
Oro
4,566
1.30%
Key points
Expectations grow for a peace agreement that would allow the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Foreign direct investment in China decreased 10.3% annually in the first four months of 2026.
This week marks the start of the first official bilateral negotiation round between Mexico and the US for the USMCA review.
For the rest of the day, the interbank exchange rate (pesos per dollar) could trade between $17.20–$17.32 spot.
What you need to know about the economy and markets
In April 2026, Mexico's trade balance recorded a surplus of $4.520 billion, smaller than the $5.932 billion observed in March. Total exports grew 32.6% annually, driven by a 33.5% advance in non-oil exports and 34.0% in manufacturing. Meanwhile, imports increased 24.1% annually, with intermediate goods (29.8%) and consumer goods (7.7%) standing out. In the January-to-April cumulative period, the balance showed a surplus of $3.508 billion and external sales advanced 21.8%.
Our Take
The trade surplus reflects strong dynamism in the export sector, particularly in non-automotive manufacturing and shipments to the United States. Additionally, the faster growth in imports, especially intermediate and consumer goods, also suggests still-resilient domestic demand and manufacturing activity.
Senior US officials stated over the weekend that the United States and Iran were close to reaching an agreement that would allow the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, though negotiations on key points were still ongoing and final approval by both parties could still take several days. The version being offered by the teams aware of the talks centers on a two-stage negotiation. The first stage would seek the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A second stage would address issues as important as Tehran's timeline for suspending the nuclear program and the fate of its missile arsenal.
Our Take
All signs indicate that significant progress has been made in recent days and that the possibility of closing a deal that permanently halts hostilities and allows the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is closer. However, the hardest part remains, having that agreement signed by all parties. The possible peace deal between the US and Iran is reactivating sentiment in financial markets at the start of the week, which marks three months of war.
According to data from China's Ministry of Commerce, the volume of foreign direct investment in China decreased 10.3% annually in the first four months of the fiscal year. However, high-technology industries attracted flows 20.3% higher, already representing 40.4% of China's total foreign direct investment.
Our Take
The FDI report in China for January-to-April 2026 reveals a structural duality with relevant implications for the global economy. On one hand, the aggregate contraction in investment reflects a trend that has deepened since 2024, despite the fiscal incentives and regulatory relief measures implemented by Beijing. On the other hand, the growing concentration of FDI in high-technology sectors, which already represents more than 40% of the total, signals a deliberate recomposition toward strategic industries aligned with the Chinese government's industrial policy.
Mexico and the United States agreed to hold the first official bilateral negotiation round for the USMCA review during the week of May 25, 2026 in Mexico City. The agreement was confirmed by both Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard and US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer. The conversation would focus on four technical vectors: enhanced rules of origin, economic security, collaboration on critical minerals, and resolution of bilateral trade irritants.
Our Take
The negotiation process takes place in a context of trade tensions driven by US economic policy, particularly in sectors such as steel, aluminum, and the automotive industry, where differences over tariffs and access conditions persist, underscoring the urgency of reaching agreements that provide investment certainty and protect Mexico's export competitiveness ahead of the formal trilateral review on July 1.
Corporate News
Uber submitted an offer to acquire Delivery Hero at a price of €33 per share, valuing the German food delivery company at approximately €10 billion (~US$11.6 billion), according to Bloomberg reports. Uber already owns 20% of Delivery Hero. Shares of the German company rose more than 10% in Monday's European session. The transaction, if completed, would make Uber the largest delivery operator in Europe, incorporating Delivery Hero's brands and markets which include operations in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America.
Ferrari presented on Monday in Rome the Luce, its first 100% electric vehicle, with a starting price of €550,000. This comes at a moment when luxury competitors such as Rimac and Pininfarina have had mixed commercial results with their electric hypercars. Ferrari adopts a differentiated strategy: buyers of the Luce gain preferential access to more exclusive models from the brand, making the vehicle a loyalty mechanism in addition to a product in its own right.
The to-do list
Follow closely any update on the US-Iran peace agreement: US officials said over the weekend they are "on the verge" of closing; the reopening of Hormuz would be the largest positive catalyst for markets in months.
This week marks the start of the first official USMCA negotiation round in Mexico City, follow closely the topics of rules of origin and the automotive sector.
Start the week with a clear agenda, it's a short week due to today's US holiday and working days are better used with order from the start.
If you haven't finished 10 Minutes 38 Seconds in This Strange World, today is a good day to continue.
Resume exercise today if you left it pending over the weekend, active Mondays set the tone for the entire week.
Today's quote…
"Optimism is the faith that leads to achievement."
— Helen Keller
Alejandra Marcos amarcos@kapital.com
James Salazar jsalazars@kapital.com
Guillermo Quechol gquechol@kapital.com
Nahely Suasnavar nsuasnavara@kapital.com
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