U.S. business equipment orders grew in June above market expectations, consolidating the strength that capital investment has shown throughout the first half of the year. The value of core capital goods orders — an indicator that excludes aircraft and military equipment and serves as a benchmark for productive investment — advanced 0.9% month-over-month, following a 1.9% increase in May, a figure that was also revised upward. Meanwhile, total durable goods orders rose 0.3% in the month.

Our Take

Taken together, we consider these data to reflect a more resilient business investment appetite than anticipated, in an environment where questions persist about the pace of expansion of the U.S. economy heading into the second half of the year.

Oil prices are posting a sharp decline today following the pause in hostilities between the United States and Iran, after 13 days of continuous strikes. Washington and Tehran opted to suspend military actions to make room for diplomatic efforts, in what is being interpreted as a first tangible signal of de-escalation, though still insufficient to restore maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. It was also reported that an Omani negotiating team met with its counterparts in Tehran to discuss the preparations needed for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, Brent pulls back 7.6% to levels near $89 per barrel, while WTI falls around 6.8% to settle near $83 per barrel.

Our Take

The geopolitical situation remains highly uncertain and risks to oil prices continue to be skewed to the upside. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, while the conflict has extended to the Red Sea.

Germany's Ifo business climate index came in at 86.6 points in July 2026, above the 85.7 points recorded in June and surpassing the market consensus of 86.1. With this result, the indicator posts three consecutive months of improvement and reaches its highest level since February. The uptick was driven primarily by the expectations component, which advanced significantly to 86.7 from 84.3 in June, while the current conditions sub-index edged slightly lower to 86.5 from 87.0.

Our Take

The short-term outlook for the German economy depends to a large extent on energy prices and the war in the Middle East. While the German economy has proven more resilient than some had feared, an extension of the conflict to other trade routes would undoubtedly represent a new risk to the economic recovery.

Corporate news

Nvidia is negotiating an alliance with SK Hynix's parent company valued at more than $500 billion to build over 2 gigawatts of AI data centers in South Korea, in addition to a potential guarantee of up to $250 billion for OpenAI to lease computing capacity from a SoftBank-backed data center project, and $350 billion in financing for OpenAI's chip purchases.

Our Take

The scale of this circular financing is the most relevant risk variable for any portfolio with exposure to the AI ecosystem. These types of transactions, in which Nvidia finances the very companies that buy its chips, can artificially inflate demand and create systemic risks if AI expectations are not met.

Stellar debut of ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) on the Chinese exchange. Shares of China's largest memory chip manufacturer surged more than 500% on their Shanghai debut this Monday, propelling the company to become China's most valuable listed company and lifting its market capitalization above that of historic tech sector names such as U.S.-based Intel.

AstraZeneca reported quarterly earnings above market expectations, driven by its best-selling oncology drugs, while investor attention turns to its next generation of cancer treatments. The result reinforces the narrative — already seen last week with Novartis — that oncology innovation remains one of the most resilient drivers in the global healthcare sector.

AT&T launched the placement of four euro-denominated bonds with maturities of 4, 8, 12, and 19 years, along with a sterling tranche at 26 years, for at least 2 billion euros ($2.23 billion dollars), in the first five-tranche offering by a U.S. company in the European market since at least 2016. Initial placement levels are around 95 basis points over midswaps for the four-year tranche.

The to-do list

  • Fed week kicks off; the market adjusts positions ahead of the Tuesday and Wednesday FOMC meeting. 

  • Update the reading on the Mexican export sector following the very positive trade balance data. 

  • Watch whether the pause in U.S. strikes on Iran holds through the week and its effect on Brent. 

  • Remember that today marks another anniversary of the publication, in 1931, of Mexico's Monetary Law.

Today's quote…

"The secret of change is to focus all of your energy not on fighting the old, but on building the new."

— Socrates