Today at 12pm, the United States Federal Reserve announces its monetary policy decision.
The U.S. central bank is expected to hold interest rates unchanged, but market participants are weighing the possibility of a surprise hike.
Key points
The conflict in the Middle East reignites, opening a new front in Iraq
Mortgage applications in the United States fell 6.4% during the week
Colima, Michoacán, and Baja California Sur posted the largest economic growth in the first quarter of 2026
For the remainder of the day, the interbank exchange rate (pesos per dollar) could trade between $17.42 – $17.54 spot
U.S. stock futures are trading with marginal declines, with the S&P 500 down -0.04% and the Nasdaq -0.07%, as investors await two key market events: the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision and the release of earnings from the leading technology companies. The Fed meeting is shaping up to be one of the most uncertain in recent years under Warsh's new leadership, while at the close of the session, Microsoft and Meta will report their quarterly results. In the energy market, oil rebounded sharply following steep losses in the three prior sessions. Brent rose as much as 4.9%, reaching $88.18 per barrel, after having shed more than 17% over the previous three sessions, while WTI advanced 4.8%, to $83.03. The rebound reflects the renewed escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which brought an abrupt end to a four-day ceasefire. In fixed income, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose two basis points, to 4.63%.
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
S&P 500
7,465
-0.01%
Nasdaq
27,920
-0.01%
Dow Jones
52,589
-0.67%
IPyC
67,822
0.80%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
USD/MXN
17.4826
0.40%
EUR/MXN
19.8927
0.20%
EUR/USD
1.1377
-0.10%
Índice DXY
101.45
0.00%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Treasury 2 años
4.31
3.7bp
Treasury 10 años
4.63
2.6bp
TIIE 3 meses
6.56
2.0bp
M Bono 10 años
9.23
-1.3bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Petróleo (Brent)
89.75
6.70%
Oro
4,021
-0.20%
What you need to know about the economy and markets
Investor attention will be focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement. At 12pm, the press release with the meeting results will be published, and at 12:30pm, Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference. Market consensus expects, nearly unanimously, that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged in the 3.50% – 3.75% range, but some analysts are speculating about the possibility of a surprise today. There is greater consensus around rate hikes for the September meeting, and as a result, markets will be looking for clues as to whether the central bank endorses that view.
Our Take
We do not believe the Fed is in a rush to raise interest rates at today's meeting. The latest inflation figures were moderate enough to justify waiting until the September meeting. That said, there could be some members of the U.S. central bank who vote in favor of additional policy tightening.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard launched multiple ballistic missiles against U.S. troop positions in the region, although the U.S. Central Command reported that all were intercepted. At the same time, Iranian media attributed an attack on a military base in Jordan to Iraqi forces. In response, the United States and Saudi Arabia carried out coordinated strikes against targets linked to Tehran-backed armed groups in Iraq. This marks the first time Iraqi militias have openly participated in the conflict. Meanwhile, negotiations between Iran and Oman to expand maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled.
Our Take
Despite signs that Washington and Tehran had been leaning toward a diplomatic path, these developments once again dampen expectations for a swift military de-escalation in the Persian Gulf. The opening of a front in Iraq, added to the already active one in the Red Sea, confirms that this conflict is tending to expand geographically rather than contract.
Mortgage applications in the United States fell 6.4% during the week ending July 24, 2026, reversing the 1.9% increase of the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) weekly survey. The 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.76%, from 6.69% the previous week, marking a new high within the upward trend that mortgage financing costs have displayed in recent weeks.
Our Take
This sharp contraction in mortgage applications confirms that the U.S. housing market remains highly sensitive to the cost of financing, and that last week's rebound was more of a technical correction than a change in trend.
During the first quarter of 2026, economic activity showed a mixed performance across states. In quarterly terms and on a seasonally adjusted basis, Colima posted the strongest growth at 3.0%, followed by Michoacán (1.7%) and Baja California Sur (1.6%), while the largest contractions were recorded in Sinaloa (-4.5%), Oaxaca (-3.1%), and Mexico City (-2.9%). On an annual basis, the largest gains corresponded to Hidalgo (8.2%), Tamaulipas (5.3%), and Colima (3.8%), in contrast to Campeche (-5.3%), Coahuila (-4.5%), and Morelos (-3.1%), which recorded the steepest declines.
Our Take
The results reflect uneven growth across state economies at the start of 2026. While some states, primarily those tied to industry and export activity, maintain a favorable performance, others continue to face significant deceleration. Overall, the ITAEE suggests that national economic activity continues to advance in a heterogeneous manner.
Corporate News
Procter & Gamble reported quarterly results below expectations and projected sales growth of just 1% to 3% for the current fiscal year, while also reiterating an after-tax impact of $1 billion from higher raw material, energy, and transportation costs, an escalation from the $150 million projected in the prior period. Adjusted earnings per share fell 3%, its first year-over-year decline since 2022.
UBS Group reported net income of $2.8 billion in the second quarter, above expectations, driven by a 53% increase in equity trading revenues and net new money inflows of $36 billion in its global wealth management division, compared to an estimate of $21 billion. The company announced a new share buyback program of $3 billion, with at least $1 billion to be deployed over the next three months.
Shares of Kering surged 10% in Paris after Gucci's sales topped estimates, while Hermès fell 10% after sales in its leather goods division missed expectations, hurt by a lack of growth in China.
South Korea convened an emergency meeting today to discuss the state of its stock market, following a selloff that has wiped billions of dollars from investor holdings. Officials are considering additional measures to stabilize markets after circuit breakers were triggered for a second consecutive day.
The To-Do List
Keep an eye on the Fed's decision at 12:00pm and Warsh's press conference at 12:30pm.
Follow Microsoft's and Meta's results at the close: in a week where Nvidia already stumbled and Alphabet disappointed on capital expenditures.
Tonight, make some garlic shrimp spaghetti — quick, flavorful, and perfect for a Wednesday night when the week is already weighing on you.
Dedicate 30 minutes to a boxing session at home or with a punching bag, one of the best workouts to release the tension of a week this packed with news.
Today's quote…
"It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop."
— Confucius
Alejandra Marcos amarcos@kapital.com
James Salazar jsalazars@kapital.com
Guillermo Quechol gquechol@kapital.com
Nahely Suasnavar nsuasnavara@kapital.com
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