In March 2026, Mexico's gross fixed investment increased 0.4% monthly, its first increase in three months. By component, machinery and equipment expenditure rose 3.1%, while construction fell -2.4%. However, on an annual basis, investment fell -3.1%, accumulating a contraction of -3.3% in the first quarter of the year.

Our Take

Investment continues to be one of the weakest components of Mexico's economy. The monthly advance is good news, though the rebound was at a very moderate rate. On an annual basis, the decline in private investment, particularly in residential construction and domestic equipment, reflects business caution in an environment of low growth and economic uncertainty.

Yesterday, the US House of Representatives voted in favor of a resolution proposed by Democrats and backed by four Republican representatives to limit President Trump's powers in the Iran war. Although the proposal does not appear likely to become law, as the Senate will very probably reject it, what is relevant is that within Trump's own party, support for the Middle East intervention is beginning to erode.

Our Take

This vote matters not for what it can achieve legally, which is little, but for what it reveals politically. The resolution's approval in the House represents the first visible and quantifiable crack in Republican support for the war. For markets, the underlying reading is that legislative pressure on the executive will intensify as the economic cost of the conflict becomes more tangible for American households.

Eurozone retail sales recorded a monthly contraction of 0.4% in April 2026, reversing the 0.8% advance observed in March and falling more than the consensus forecast (-0.3%). The retreat was driven primarily by non-food product sales, which fell 0.9%, and by automotive fuel at specialized stores, which fell 2.7%. In the other direction, food, beverages, and tobacco sales showed a rebound of 0.9% compared to the prior month. On an annual basis, sales rose 1.0%, a moderation from the 2.7% of March.

Our Take

The combination of interest rates that, despite ECB cuts, continue at elevated levels in real terms; inflation that, far from easing, rebounded again in April; and a labor market showing signs of cooling in quality job creation, all configure a more cautious and selective European consumer.

US initial jobless claims increased by 13,000 to 225,000, their highest level since February, which could reflect the volatility typical of the Memorial Day holiday period and the start of summer vacations at some educational institutions. The four-week moving average, an indicator that helps smooth volatility, rose to 214,750, also the highest since February.

Our Take

Despite the rebound in claims, figures remain close to historically low levels. Looking ahead, a sustained increase in jobless claims could indicate that rising costs and growing economic uncertainty from the war with Iran are beginning to weigh on employers. Continued investment in artificial intelligence has also come at the cost of headcount at some technology companies, driving the increase in layoff announcements in the sector.

Corporate News

Broadcom reported fiscal second-quarter revenues of US$22.2 billion (+48% year-on-year), marginally above consensus. AI semiconductor revenues reached US$10.8 billion, in line with consensus. However, the AI revenue guidance for the third quarter of US$16 billion and the annual guidance of US$56 billion did not exceed expectations, triggering a 14% decline in its shares in pre-market trading. On a positive note, CEO Hock Tan confirmed long-term contracts with OpenAI, Meta, and Alphabet, and revealed that Broadcom is financially backing Apollo and Blackstone's US$36 billion debt arrangement to finance Anthropic's chips.

Blackstone announced it will limit redemptions from its Blackstone Private Credit Fund to 5% of capital after receiving requests for 10% of assets, the first time the fund has activated this mechanism in its history, according to Bloomberg reports. The prior quarter, Blackstone had allowed withdrawals of a record 7.9% by appealing to senior executives to fund part of the redemptions with their own capital. US private credit, which exceeds $1.8 trillion in assets under management, faces simultaneous pressure from returns that do not compensate for illiquidity risk versus Treasuries at current rates.

SpaceX today formally began its investor presentations for the US$75 billion IPO with the price set at US$135 per share and a Nasdaq debut scheduled for Friday, June 12 under the symbol SPCX.

HSBC reported a decline of up to 6% in its London shares after the South China Morning Post reported that some banks have suspended the opening of investment accounts in Hong Kong for mainland China clients that could be used to transfer capital abroad. Bank of East Asia confirmed the suspension of this type of account at its Shanghai branch, while HSBC reportedly warned its clients that all funds deposited in investment accounts must comply with Hong Kong's regulatory requirements.

The to-do list

  • Follow the US-Iran negotiations closely: the first Republican crack in the House on the war is the most politically relevant signal of the week, and markets will be calibrating how much legislative weight it accumulates.

  • Read carefully Mexico's consumption and investment report: the private consumption rebound in March is encouraging, but the dynamism concentrated in imported goods and the annual decline in investment tell a more complex story than the headline.

  • Tonight, make a beef broth with seasonal vegetables, a dish that calls for time and calm, exactly what a week this dense with news requires.

  • Dedicate 30 minutes to going for a walk or doing a home workout, the body needs to move when the mind has spent days processing geopolitics, tariffs, and inflation.

Today's quote…

"Do what you can, with what you have, where you are."

— Theodore Roosevelt