The United States begins today, Monday, an initiative to free merchant ships from neutral countries that have become trapped in the Strait of Hormuz due to the blockade imposed by Iran since the start of the war. Around a thousand merchant vessels are estimated to be trapped in those waters. Hours after Trump announced this operation, Iranian news agency FARS claimed that two missiles had struck a US warship after it ignored warnings. US government sources denied that version. At the same time, the US president also indicated that his representatives are maintaining "very positive negotiations" with Iran.

Our Take 

Investors' hopes of a de-escalation are once again fading. While the market has learned to receive the US president's announcements with caution, the succession of contradictory information only fuels uncertainty and feeds volatility.

The US is considering raising tariffs on automobiles and trucks from the European Union to 25% starting this week, up from the previously agreed 15%, due to differences of opinion regarding compliance with a bilateral trade agreement reached last August.

Our Take 

The decision on European cars once again plunges into uncertainty a sector that already had a very difficult 2025, largely due to Trump's tariff impacts, which affected the results of European manufacturers as well as American ones. The country most immediately affected by the new rate would be Germany, the largest European exporter of vehicles to the United States.

The Eurozone manufacturing PMI compiled by S&P Global rose in its final April reading to 52.2 points from 51.6 points in March, with the reading in line with its preliminary figure and with what analysts had expected. The final April figure is the highest this indicator has reached in 47 months.

Our Take 

Although the index has reached its highest level in nearly four years, the survey generates more concern than optimism. Output and the order backlog were driven by the buildup of safety stocks, as a result of widespread concern about supply shortages and rising prices stemming from the war in the Middle East.

OPEC+, the cartel of major oil producers, agreed on Sunday to a modest increase in oil production for June, an increase that will, in practice, have very limited impact as long as the war with Iran continues to disrupt supplies in the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Specifically, seven countries in the group will raise their production targets by 188,000 barrels per day, marking the third consecutive monthly increase.

Our Take 

The move has a clear symbolic component: it aims to show that the cartel is prepared to increase supply once the conflict ends, while sending a message of operational normalcy despite the departure of the United Arab Emirates.

Markets and companies

Asian markets closed at all-time highs on Monday: the KOSPI advanced 5.1% led by SK Hynix (+12%) and Samsung; Taiwan rose 4.6% with TSMC gaining 6.6%; the MSCI Asia-Pacific reached a new closing record. The catalyst was confirmation that the four hyperscalers raised their combined 2026 capex to more than US$700 billion, a figure that guarantees high demand for memory chips over the coming quarters. The AI cycle is proving to be, in practice, the greatest geopolitical shock absorber for equity markets

Corporate News

Spirit Airlines announced on Saturday a total cessation of operations after a federal government rescue that contemplated a US$500 million injection in exchange for warrants over up to 90% of the airline failed to materialize due to creditor resistance. All flights were cancelled and passengers were urged not to go to airports. Spirit, which had filed its second bankruptcy petition in less than a year last August, was the largest US low-cost airline by number of domestic destinations.

Our Take 

Spirit's collapse is the most significant corporate event of the Iran conflict for the sector because it materializes a risk that until now was theoretical: that companies with business models highly sensitive to fuel costs could not survive an energy shock of this magnitude. With this, the market's focus will shift to other airlines with similar cost structures such as Frontier, Allegiant, and Avelo.

GameStop announced a proposed acquisition of eBay for approximately US$56 billion (US$125 per share in cash and stock, a 20% premium over Friday's price). GameStop, with a market capitalization of US$12 billion, is proposing to acquire a company more than four times its size. eBay confirmed it will review the offer; its shares were rising around 10% in pre-market trading, though below the offered price.

Berkshire Hathaway reported 18% year-on-year growth in first-quarter operating income, driven primarily by the insurance segment, benefiting in part from higher premiums stemming from the higher global risk environment. The company's cash position reached a new record of approximately US$397 billion at the close of the quarter, with Buffett noting in a CNBC interview that the current environment is not ideal for investing.

The to-do list

Today's quote…

"Every day is a new opportunity to change your life."

— Oprah Winfrey