In its monthly report, the IMEF stated that the most recent indicators suggest Mexico's economy continues in a phase of weakness, though with incipient signs of stabilization. In April 2026, the IMEF Manufacturing Indicator showed a relevant improvement, rising from 47.6 to 49.0 points, but remains in contraction territory after more than two years. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing Indicator recorded a slight retreat from 49.0 to 48.9 points, confirming still-weak underlying dynamics and more generalized deterioration by company size.

Our Take

At the start of this year, conditions of sluggishness prevailed. Taken together, these readings point to a second-quarter start with low economic momentum, consistent with downward revisions to GDP growth.

The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran holds today despite US and Iranian forces engaging in clashes on Monday that involved maritime transport in the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks against the United Arab Emirates, the worst flare-up of tensions in nearly a month. The violence erupted after US President Donald Trump announced "Project Liberty," which he described as a humanitarian effort to guide stranded neutral vessels in the Gulf through Hormuz.

Our Take

Recent events occurred amid a standoff between Iran and the United States, with both parties showing few indications of soon agreeing to a new round of peace talks. Tehran insists that Washington must lift a naval blockade on its ports for that to happen. The US says the blockade is strangling Iran's oil exports and pressuring its economy, forcing it to make concessions.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at its April meeting, its third consecutive increase, in line with expectations, in an 8-to-1 vote. The central bank's move was based on the rebound in inflation, driven by capacity pressures and higher fuel and commodity prices linked to the Middle East armed conflict.

Our Take

The monetary authority assessed that inflation is likely to remain above its target, warranting the rate increase, and reiterated its approach of adapting to published macro data while monitoring global and domestic conditions, labor markets, and inflation, with a focus on price stability and full employment.

In March 2026, the US trade deficit widened to $60.3 billion from $57.8 billion in February. Exports rose to $320.9 billion (+2.0% monthly), while imports reached $381.2 billion (+2.3% monthly). The widening deficit was driven primarily by a larger goods deficit, partially offset by an increase in the services surplus. In the month, higher exports of energy and industrial inputs stood out, while imports grew in consumer goods, capital goods, and automotive products.

Our Take

The widening deficit reflects greater dynamism in domestic demand, which continues to drive imports above exports. While the increase in exports suggests some external strength, the faster growth in purchases from abroad points to still-solid consumption and investment in the US. In this context, factors such as tariffs and geopolitical tensions could continue to affect the composition of trade, raising costs and generating distortions in trade flows.

Today at 8am, the April US ISM services index is published. The indicator likely fell slightly in the fourth month of the year but remained in expansion territory. Most regional survey data point to a weakening of business activity during the month, but a rebound in hiring after the rapid decline in March could be sufficient to support the headline figure. Perhaps most importantly, we expect the prices indicator to rise amid the war with Iran. Thus, the expectation is that the ISM retreated to 53.5 points from 54.0 in March.

Our Take

The services sector likely continued growing in April, though at a slightly slower pace than in March. We anticipate that price pressures will broaden, partly due to the war.

Corporate News

Industrias Peñoles reported results above market expectations at the close of Q1 2026. Revenues nearly doubled compared to the same period the prior year, while EBITDA recorded an expansion of 163%, reaching a margin of 47.6% — an improvement of 13 percentage points. Performance was favored both by a positive commodity price environment and a favorable base effect, given that Q1 2025 incorporated the operational impact of the strike at the Tizapa unit.

Our Take

Peñoles directly benefits from the rise in gold and silver prices — metals that represent approximately 32% and 34% of its revenues, respectively — positioning the company as the world's largest silver producer. While the increase in prices also pressures cost of sales, the company has managed to expand its margins through efficient cost management and greater pricing power. Despite the triple-digit return accumulated by the stock and recent corrections in metal prices, Peñoles maintains a discount relative to its history and sector peers.

According to Bloomberg reports, Apple has held exploratory conversations with Intel and Samsung to manufacture the main processors for its devices as a secondary option to its partner TSMC. The conversations with Intel are in a preliminary stage and Apple executive visits to Samsung's plant under development in Texas have not resulted in concrete orders so far.

Palantir reported revenues that beat estimates. The company also raised its annual revenue guidance to between US$7.650 and US$7.660 billion, above its prior forecast of US$7.190 billion. However, US commercial sales in the first quarter fell short of market expectations — the momentum came from US government revenues supported by the expansion of contracts with the Pentagon, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Maven Smart System.

Pfizer reported first-quarter sales that beat consensus estimates by 5%. Earnings per share were US$0.75, above the expected US$0.73. The company reaffirmed its annual sales guidance of between US$59.5 and US$62.5 billion.

HSBC earned less than expected in the first three months of the year. The difference is largely explained by a surprise loss of US$400 million related to the collapse of Market Financial Solutions — a British firm that lent money on a short-term basis with properties as collateral and which turned out to be involved in a fraud. Apollo Global Management appears as the financial sponsor behind the operation. The bank also set aside an additional US$300 million as a precaution against the economic impact of the war in Iran. HSBC shares were falling more than 5% in London.

The to-do list

Today's quote…

"The secret of getting ahead is getting started."

— Mark Twain