In June, 354,221 light vehicles were produced in Mexico and 301,009 were exported, annual declines of 1.9% and 9.2%, respectively.
During the first half of 2026, light vehicle production accumulates a retreat of -0.42%, while exports report an advance of 1.4%.
Key points
The US trade deficit widens in May to its highest level in a year.
German industrial production grew strongly in May.
Oil prices rise after reports of attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
For the rest of the day, the interbank exchange rate (pesos per dollar) could trade between $17.38 and $17.50 spot.
US futures are registering retreats this morning, with the technology sector under pressure following an unfavorable reaction to Samsung's report, whose shares fell more than 10% in Seoul, a reaction that extended throughout the semiconductor supply chain in Asia and Europe. Brent advances toward US$73 following the attack on a Qatari LNG cargo ship, which has generated new concern among shipowners and raised the geopolitical risk premium on oil. The 10-year Treasury yield rises to 4.49%. Today is SpaceX's incorporation into the Nasdaq 100 with the start of indexed fund purchasing flows.
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
S&P 500
7,579
-0.20%
Nasdaq
29,624
-1.10%
Dow Jones
53,595
0.40%
IPyC
68,241
1.10%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
USD/MXN
17.4443
0.40%
EUR/MXN
19.934
0.30%
EUR/USD
1.1432
-0.10%
Índice DXY
100.92
0.10%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Treasury 2 años
4.14
1.2bp
Treasury 10 años
4.50
1.8bp
TIIE 3 meses
6.61
2.0bp
M Bono 10 años
9.04
-0.1bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Petróleo (Brent)
72.76
1.10%
Oro
4,166
0.10%
What you need to know about the economy and markets
The automotive industry showed mixed performance during June 2026. Light vehicle production reached 354,221 units, representing an annual decline of 1.9%, while exports fell 9.2% to 301,009 units. In contrast, domestic market sales rose to 126,902 units, a 7.7% annual increase. In the January-to-June cumulative period, production totaled 1,996,304 units (-0.4% annually) and exports 1,689,245 units (1.4% annually), with the United States as the main destination, concentrating 75.9% of shipments.
Our Take
The figures reflect a divergence between the domestic and external markets. While domestic sales continue to show strength, production and, especially, exports felt the impact of a less favorable international environment. The 9.2% decline in exports suggests a moderation during June in external demand, particularly from the United States, which could continue to limit the manufacturing sector's performance in the coming months.
The US trade deficit widened in May to its highest level since March 2025, due to a combination of declining exports and growing imports. The deficit increased 42.2% compared to the prior month, reaching $77.6 billion, slightly below the $78.4 billion expected. Exports declined 3.2%, while imports rose 3.3%. On the bilateral front, the deficit with Mexico widened by $5.3 billion to stand at $20.1 billion.
Our Take
The rebound in the US trade deficit in May (with Mexico and with the world) reaffirms the persistence of a structural external imbalance that will continue to fuel the protectionist debate in Washington ahead of the USMCA review.
German industrial production increased for the second consecutive month, with an increase of 0.9% compared to the prior month in May. The automotive sector was the main growth driver, with a production increase of 3.6%, while construction also recorded significant growth. On an annual basis, industrial production remained unchanged (0.0%), after recording a 0.9% decline in April.
Our Take
The prospects for a gradual recovery in the coming months have improved, thanks to the reduction in geopolitical uncertainty and the stabilization of energy prices.
International oil prices are rising again slightly as Iranian attacks on vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz have been reported in recent hours, occurring near the Omani coast — a new escalation that threatens to complicate the negotiations to end the US-Iran conflict. Brent at times rose as much as 1% and is trading above $73.
Our Take
These new attacks coincide with the NATO meeting in Turkey that begins today, where US President Donald Trump is expected to attend, and reveal that we are still far from a complete and safe normalization of energy flows through Hormuz.
Corporate News
ASUR reported 5.6 million passengers in June, a 5.8% year-on-year decline, with Cancún, its main airport, losing 11.5% and Mexico's international traffic retreating 12.1%; Colombia was the only positive segment with a decline of just 1.1% in the month and a semester cumulative of +7.3%. GAP recorded the largest deterioration of the three groups with a 5.1% decline across its 12 Mexican airports: Puerto Vallarta fell 18.7%, Montego Bay 23.4%, and Los Cabos 9.7%, with Guadalajara as the only positive exception growing 6.0%. OMA was the only group with net growth, advancing 2.1% to 2,403,275 total passengers, with international traffic rising 10.2% and hubs such as San Luis Potosí and Durango leading with growth above 27%, supported by 22 new routes inaugurated in the month.
Our Take
Beach and leisure destinations dependent on the US tourist remain under pressure as gasoline stays 22% above pre-war levels, while airports oriented toward nearshoring industrial corridors show sustained resilience.
Samsung reported preliminary second-quarter results with operating earnings that surpassed estimates. Revenues doubled. Chip prices have risen close to 50%, boosting results. The company included provisions in the quarter for extraordinary bonuses for chip employees of up to US$400,000, according to Bloomberg reports. Shares fell more than 10% in Seoul and erased more than US$80 billion in market capitalization.
Our Take
A stock that rises 150% in the year needs results that are not only extraordinary but that surpass expectations that already incorporated that rise. Samsung has more diversified exposure than SK Hynix, including consumer electronics, displays, and foundry chips, which in a cycle where HBM demand is the only multiple driver structurally positions it weaker than its rival.
Microsoft announced the layoff of approximately 4,800 employees, 2.1% of its global workforce, with the cuts concentrated primarily in its Xbox gaming division. Microsoft shares have fallen approximately 30% from their all-time highs and fell close to 1% on Monday following the announcement.
The to-do list
Monitor oil throughout the day: new Iranian attacks on vessels near the Omani coast push Brent above $73, and the NATO meeting in Turkey with Trump present is the most relevant geopolitical event of the day.
It's Tuesday, a good day to advance on the most important pending matters of the week before Wednesday's and Thursday's density arrives.
Today there is a double World Cup matchday: Argentina vs. Egypt at 10:00am and Switzerland vs. Colombia at 2:00pm, a Tuesday to keep the screen nearby from the morning.
Dedicate 30 minutes to a circuit of squats, push-ups, and planks, no equipment and at home.
Today's quote…
"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you react to it."
— Charles R. Swindoll
Alejandra Marcos amarcos@kapital.com
James Salazar jsalazars@kapital.com
Guillermo Quechol gquechol@kapital.com
Nahely Suasnavar nsuasnavara@kapital.com
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