Today at 1pm, the Bank of Mexico announces its monetary policy decision. The expectation is that it will once again cut its overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.50%. The decision would be divided — in our scenario, with four votes in favor of the cut and one against (Deputy Governor Heath). In addition, it is very likely that in its forward guidance the authority will reiterate the idea that this could be the last scheduled cut in this monetary easing cycle.

Our Take The rate cut appears to be a widely expected and priced-in decision for financial markets. One of the remaining questions is whether the authority will cut the rate while keeping its inflation forecasts unchanged — particularly its expectation of achieving convergence toward the 3.0% target in the second quarter of 2027 — or whether it will choose to postpone (again) and change the date.

The United States awaits Iran's response to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while tensions remain elevated. Iran is expected to deliver a response in the coming days. Its leaders have not yet indicated whether they will accept it, though they have previously shown few signs of yielding on their nuclear program or accepting a moratorium on uranium enrichment, as the new US proposal demands.

Our Take

The easing of tensions helped global financial markets recover the losses caused by the war and reach new highs in some cases, as the decline in oil prices reduces inflationary fears and reactivates the momentum of the artificial intelligence sector.

US initial jobless claims rebounded slightly after falling the previous week to levels near the lowest in decades, a signal that layoffs remain contained despite recent announcements of job cuts. Claims rose by 10,000 to 200,000 in the week ending May 2. Expectations had pointed to 205,000.

Our Take

Claims have remained contained despite high-profile companies announcing job cuts, indicating that the labor market remains in the "few hires, few layoffs" state that has prevailed in recent years. The April government employment report, scheduled for tomorrow Friday, is expected to show the first consecutive monthly increase in non-farm payrolls in nearly a year.

Eurozone retail sales fell 0.1% in March compared to February, considerably less than the 0.3% decline expected by analyst consensus. By activity sector and relative to February, sales fell 0.3% in food, beverages, and tobacco, and 1.6% in automotive fuel at specialized stores. In the other direction, sales of non-food products increased 0.6%. On an annual basis, sales increased 1.2% (+1.3% in February).

Our Take

The report reflects a cautious consumer environment, where confidence in the state of the economy has deteriorated due to the geopolitical situation and, with relevant increases in inflation, adjustments are being made to spending plans. It is likely that in the April report the retreat will be more pronounced.

German factory orders increased 5.0% monthly in March, a growth rate far above the anticipated 1.3%. The rebound was broad-based across nearly all economic sectors, with strong increases in orders for electrical equipment (+21.5%), data processing equipment, electronic products and optical products (+14.4%), and mechanical engineering orders (+6.9%).

Our Take

This is a solid figure, and even when analyzing the details excluding large-volume orders, new orders in the manufacturing sector increased 5.1% in March compared to the prior month, the highest level since February 2023. Companies front-loaded orders and sought to cover inventories amid uncertainty over the armed conflict.

Norway's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, considering that inflation remains too high and that there are additional risks stemming from the war in the Middle East. Annual inflation rebounded to 3.6% in March, while the core component held steady at 3%.

Our Take

Inflation continues at levels well above the central bank's target. The monetary policy outlook does not appear to have changed substantially since March, but the war in the Middle East continues to generate great uncertainty about the economic outlook.

Corporate News

Vesta announced the launch of a global public offering of 70 million ordinary shares, including ADSs for placement in the US and other international markets. At the close of Q1 2026, Vesta managed 231 industrial properties in Mexico's main logistics corridors with a total area of 4.0 million square meters.

Volaris transported 2.7 million passengers in April with a load factor of 84.6%, 2.9 percentage points above the same month in 2025, in a month where the airline reduced its capacity in ASMs by 1.9%. The domestic market recorded a 2.7% decline in RPMs while international advanced 8.9%, reflecting the company's strategy of prioritizing the cross-border segment with higher revenue per passenger.

Our Take

This is the first month in which the airline has reduced its capacity, partly explaining the improvement in load factor. Since its last quarterly report, Volaris adjusted its capacity expansion for the quarter downward to between 0% and 2%, a signal of moderation in demand, particularly in the domestic segment.

ASUR recorded 6.0 million total passengers in April, a 0.7% year-on-year decline, with mixed dynamics across its three geographies. Mexico fell 2.6%, pressured primarily by Cancún (-4.3%), which concentrates the largest share of the group's international traffic and remains the airport most sensitive to the rise in international airfares. Colombia advanced 5.6% driven by growth in both domestic (+5.9%) and international (+4.7%) traffic. Puerto Rico retreated 2.2%. A relevant comparability factor: Easter 2026 fell in March while in 2025 it was in April, distorting the year-on-year comparison for the month.

Our Take

The decline in Cancún, the group's anchor airport, reflects a real phenomenon: the rise in airfares from higher fuel costs is depressing demand for international leisure tourism at Mexico's main beach destinations. However, the Easter calendar effect exaggerates the magnitude of that decline in April's comparison.

Anthropic signed an agreement with SpaceX to access more than 300 megawatts of computing capacity at the Colossus data center in Tennessee, adding a significant source of infrastructure to its existing agreements with Amazon and Google. The agreement will allow Anthropic to raise usage limits for its Claude model in response to growing demand.

Shell reported first-quarter earnings of US$6.9 billion, nearly 25% more than the prior year, driven by the rise in oil and gas prices stemming from the Iran conflict. However, the company reduced its share buyback program, which generated some caution among investors.

McDonald's reported results that beat consensus estimates thanks to a reinforced value strategy that includes larger portions and more aggressive promotions, which is attracting back consumers who had reduced their visits due to the rise in gasoline prices.

The to-do list

Today's quote…

"Do one thing every day that scares you."

— Eleanor Roosevelt