Today at 12pm the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting held in June are published, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh.
It will be especially interesting to learn from the minutes the different positions held by Fed members regarding the direction that US monetary policy should follow
Key points
Trump says the US truce with Iran has ended following attacks.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raises its official interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%.
In the US, mortgage applications decreased 2.2% last week.
The IMF maintains its global GDP growth expectation at 3.0% for 2026.
For the rest of the day, the interbank exchange rate (pesos per dollar) could trade between $17.49 and $17.63 spot.
The major US indices are pointing to a negative open, with global markets absorbing Trump's declaration in Ankara that the provisional memorandum of understanding with Iran is "over" following a new escalation of mutual attacks. The US struck more than 80 Iranian targets in response to Tehran's attacks on merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI rises 5.7% to US$74 and Brent advances more than 6% toward US$79, reversing a good portion of the decline accumulated since the June 18 MOU. The 10-year Treasury yield rises to 4.57%; the UK 10-year gilt jumped to 4.95%; the German bund advanced to 3.06%, in the largest synchronized movement of global long-term rates since Warsh's debut. Today the June FOMC meeting minutes are published; the NATO meeting in Ankara continues.
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
S&P 500
7,512
-0.50%
Nasdaq
29,191
-0.70%
Dow Jones
52,754
-0.80%
IPyC
67,420
1.10%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
USD/MXN
17.5760
0.40%
EUR/MXN
20.034
0.30%
EUR/USD
1.1398
-0.10%
Índice DXY
101.14
0.10%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Treasury 2 años
4.20
3.5bp
Treasury 10 años
4.57
3.8bp
TIIE 3 meses
6.62
2.0bp
M Bono 10 años
9.09
-0.5bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Petróleo (Brent)
77.46
4.50%
Oro
4,076
-0.70%
What you need to know about the economy and markets
Later, at 12:00pm, the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of the June 16-17 meeting, the first corresponding to a monetary policy decision under Kevin Warsh's presidency. At that meeting, the Committee kept the federal funds rate unchanged in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Investors will be watching the tone of the minutes to assess the degree of consensus among Committee members and to learn whether there is less willingness to offer explicit signals about the future trajectory of monetary policy. It will also be relevant to identify how broad the support was for the possibility of at least one additional interest rate increase during the remainder of the year.
Our Take
The minutes will be relevant to understanding the balance of risks currently facing the Fed. Any evidence of broader internal support for new interest rate increases could strengthen expectations of restrictive monetary policy for longer. Additionally, there is some speculation that the minutes could adopt a shorter or less detailed format, in line with the post-meeting statement, which was reduced to just over 130 words.
President Trump said the provisional ceasefire with Iran has ended, increasing the possibility that peace negotiations will collapse and clashes between both countries will resume. He made this declaration at a press conference in Ankara, Turkey, in the context of the NATO summit. Trump's statements came shortly after the US launched a new wave of attacks against Iran and revoked an exemption that had allowed the sale of Iranian oil. These measures were adopted in response to recent Iranian attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Our Take These developments represent the most serious threat to the provisional peace agreement and interrupt what had become an increasingly complacent market narrative, leading investors to reassess geopolitical risks after several weeks of taking for granted a smooth path toward de-escalation of the armed conflict.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has raised its official interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% at its July meeting. This is the first increase in three years and was in line with market expectations. The decision responds to the objective of returning inflation to the 2% target while seeking to minimize the impact on economic activity.
Our Take
Looking ahead, the institution may consider that further interest rate increases become necessary, though their magnitude and timing will depend on the evolution of economic data, particularly prices.
US mortgage applications decreased 2.2% in the week ending July 3, 2026, after remaining practically stable the prior week. By component, refinancing applications, the most sensitive to interest rate variations, fell 4.1%, while applications for home purchases retreated 0.6%.
Our Take
The decline in US mortgage applications in the most recent week confirms that housing demand continues to operate on fragile ground, sensitive to any rebound in long-term rates. This behavior is consistent with the volatility that has characterized the indicator in recent weeks, alternating advances and retreats as Treasury yields react to the publication of inflation data and the evolution of the Federal Reserve's tone under Kevin Warsh's leadership.
The International Monetary Fund published its July 2026 update to the World Economic Outlook, in which it forecasts global growth to stand at 3.0% for 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, below the 3.5% average observed in 2024-2025, though practically unchanged from April projections. Global inflation is projected at 4.7% for 2026, a rebound from 4.1% in 2025 that interrupts the disinflationary trend observed since early 2024, before moderating to 3.9% in 2027. For Mexico, the Fund projects growth of 1.2% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. For 2026, this implies a downward revision of 0.4 percentage points from what was estimated in the April report.
Our Take
The Fund's update describes a global economy that, so far, has absorbed the Middle East war shock better than feared, largely because the crude oil shortage has been offset by inventory drawdowns rather than price adjustments, a mechanism that by definition has limits. This qualifies the report's resilience message: the absence of a more severe inflationary shock so far is not evidence that the transmission channel has been exhausted, but that much of the real adjustment, in manufacturing, supply chains, and consumption, is only beginning to manifest in leading indicators.
Corporate News
Volaris transported 2.7 million passengers in June, growth of 11.3% year-on-year, with an ASM expansion of 8.7% to 3,049 million that contrasts notably with the contraction recorded in April and May. The load factor stood practically unchanged from June 2025. With June incorporated, the second quarter closes with 2.0% capacity growth, at the upper end of the guided 0%-2% range.
Our Take
Fleet and scheduling execution was precise. The redistribution of capacity toward the international segment suggests a network mix with greater exposure to dollar yields, favorable for meeting the guided TRASM of 9.5 cents, considering that the Q2 2025 comparison base was weak in that segment. The determining variable for the July 21 results will be the materialization of fuel recovery in fares. If TRASM approaches the guidance, the guided EBITDAR margin of 13% looks achievable.
The SK Hynix share placement on Nasdaq, scheduled for Friday, July 10, received purchase orders for a multiple of the total offering value, with expected proceeds of approximately US$28 billion, which would make it the largest placement of a foreign company in US history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's prior record in 2019.
OpenAI will announce today the public launch of GPT-5.6, its most capable artificial intelligence model to date, following last month's request by the Trump administration to restrict its distribution to a small group of government-approved organizations, citing national security concerns.
Our Take
The company followed the same path as Anthropic with its most advanced models, beginning with an initial restriction followed by release with new security safeguards implemented.
Blue Origin is raising US$10 billion in a funding round that values the company at US$130 billion, according to a New York Times report. The round comes three weeks after SpaceX's historic stock market debut, which on its first day of trading was valued at more than US$2 trillion.
Our Take
Musk's company has such a marked operational and revenue advantage that Blue Origin needs a clearer differentiation narrative to justify a valuation that will inevitably be compared to SpaceX's. The most relevant data point for investors is not Blue Origin itself but what the round signals about private market appetite for space sector assets.
The to-do list
Watch the Fed minutes at 12:00pm: the market will look for signals about the degree of internal consensus for an additional hike in 2026 and whether Warsh's new format reduces the usual transparency of the statement, which could move the rate curve during the afternoon.
It's Wednesday, the inflection point of the week: review what was left pending from Monday and Tuesday, and define what must be resolved before Friday.
Tonight, prepare rajas with cheese tamales, the most comforting midweek craving and one that deserves to be eaten slowly.
Dedicate 30 minutes to a Tabata session at home, twenty seconds of maximum effort and ten of rest, one of the most efficient workouts that exist when time is short.
Today's quote…
"Take the risk. If you win, you will be happy. If you lose, you will be wise."
— Anonymous
Alejandra Marcos amarcos@kapital.com
James Salazar jsalazars@kapital.com
Guillermo Quechol gquechol@kapital.com
Nahely Suasnavar nsuasnavara@kapital.com
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