The Federal Reserve's preferred price measure remained at 2.8% annually in February, matching consensus forecasts. Core inflation also came in line with market estimates, at 3.0% annually, one tenth below the prior month. On a monthly basis, the headline rate advanced 0.4%, accelerating from 0.3% in January and matching market projections. The core indicator also registered an increase of 0.4%, in line with forecasts.

Our take

All of these readings will be closely watched by the Fed, as they may ultimately define the next moves in interest rates by showing the true state of the economy and prices as the country faces ongoing turbulence.

International oil prices are rising again to levels near $100 per barrel, amid perceptions that the two-week truce in the Iran conflict is fragile. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed for all practical purposes. Israel has continued attacks on Lebanon, which Iran considers a violation of the terms of the initial ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has stated that US forces will remain in Iran and its surroundings until the agreement is fully complied with. Tomorrow, negotiations are set to begin in Islamabad toward a comprehensive peace agreement.

Our take

The relief in financial markets from the truce was short-lived, given the continuation of bombardments, conflicting accounts of the terms of the agreement, and the announcement of a new closure of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Israel's continued attacks in Lebanon.

In the third and final revision of US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2025, growth was revised down again by two tenths to 0.5% quarter-on-quarter annualized. In particular, private consumption, its largest component, was adjusted one tenth lower to 1.9%.

Our take

The weakness in the final quarter of the year is largely explained by the US government shutdown, the longest in history. In the second revision, growth had been cut in half to 0.7%, following an initial figure of 1.4% that had already come in well below expectations.

Initial jobless claims rose by 17,000 to 219,000, an eight-week high and above the 210,000 forecast, after the previous week had recorded a near two-year low.

Our take

The jump to 219,000 claims arrives at a moment of heightened sensitivity given the geopolitical situation and uncertainty about its potential negative effects on prices and economic activity in the United States.

The Fed minutes published yesterday reflected a cautious stance in the face of elevated geopolitical uncertainty, signaling that deterioration in the US labor market could open the door to rate cuts, while potential inflationary pressures would justify possible hikes. Nevertheless, the general bias within the authority is toward rate cuts.

Our Take 

The central bank is opting for an "agile" approach in the face of geopolitical tensions, adjusting its policy stance in response to available data, the evolution of the outlook, and the balance of risks.

In March 2026, 343,520 light vehicles were produced in Mexico, representing annual growth of 2.5%, while exports reached 310,205 units, an increase of 4.2% annually. Domestic sales stood at 131,569 units, growing 2.4% annually. In the January-to-March cumulative period, production advanced 0.5% annually and exports 2.5%, with the United States as the main destination (75.8%).

Our take

The automotive sector's performance in March reflects moderate growth, with greater dynamism in exports than in production, suggesting relatively solid external demand despite US tariffs. Overall, the sector maintains resilience, though conditioned by the evolution of external demand and the global environment, including geopolitical risks that could affect supply chains and international trade.

Markets and Stocks

WTI was rising 5.3% toward US$99 per barrel and Brent was approaching US$100 again, with the geopolitical risk premium re-entering as doubts about the effectiveness of the ceasefire grew. European natural gas recovered part of Wednesday's losses. Gold was advancing 0.5% toward US$4,742 per ounce. The International Maritime Organization confirmed it is working to determine whether there are mines in the strait — a process that could take weeks. Three Chinese supertankers loaded with Saudi and Iraqi crude were anchored near the entrance to the strait, in what would be the first real test of the agreement if they decide to attempt transit.

Corporate News

Volaris reported March traffic figures showing international expansion that offset domestic contraction. In the month, total capacity grew 1.5% year-on-year, while consolidated passenger traffic rose 4.5%, led by the international segment (+12.7%). Total capacity grew 2.3%, below the guided 3.0%, a gap attributable mainly to weather-related cancellations in January and more conservative fleet management amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Our Take 

The quarter's environment was particularly complex for Volaris. The surge in oil prices stemming from the Iran conflict, which pushed Brent to levels near $120, represented the main risk to margins, given that the airline does not have a systematic fuel hedging program and is the Latin American carrier most sensitive to this factor. The ceasefire announcement partially alleviated that pressure.

CoreWeave announced a new cloud computing capacity supply agreement with Meta for US$21 billion through December 2032, adding to the prior contract of US$14.2 billion the company already held. To finance the associated expansion, CoreWeave plans to issue US$3 billion in convertible notes due 2032 and US$1.25 billion in senior notes due 2031.

Constellation Brands withdrew its financial guidance for fiscal year 2028, citing a "restrained" demand environment and limited near-term visibility. The company reported fourth-quarter results that beat consensus estimates, with earnings per share of US$1.90. For fiscal year 2027, Constellation projects earnings per share of between US$11.20 and US$11.90, below estimates. Nicholas Fink assumes the role of new CEO next week.

OpenAI announced the suspension of its Stargate AI infrastructure project in the United Kingdom, signaling that the company is rationalizing its capital expenditure ahead of its anticipated initial public offering. The decision contrasts with the massive investment commitments the company has announced in the US and suggests that OpenAI is prioritizing strengthening its balance sheet before its stock market debut.

The to-do list

Quote of the day

"In markets, as in life, calm is not the absence of the storm, it is knowing where to anchor while it lasts."

— Anonymous