20261009 2

Mexico's IMSS reported the creation of 128,803 formal jobs in September, bringing total employment to a record 22.93 million positions, of which 87.1% are permanent. During the first nine months of the year, 410,200 jobs were added, while annual employment growth stood at just 1.6%. The sectors posting the strongest annual gains were mining and extraction (+5.2%), transportation and communications (+4.8%), and social and community services (+3.8%). Average daily base wages for social security contributions reached 666 pesos.

Our Take

Job creation supports household income, although annual employment growth remains modest. A sustained recovery in consumption will require hiring momentum to persist beyond seasonal factors. Additionally, digital platforms accounted for 81,630 new jobs over the past 12 months (+64.9%), suggesting that employment growth outside these platforms is even weaker.

20261009 3

Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve governor and one of the most influential members of the monetary policy committee, said several additional rate hikes would likely be needed to bring inflation back to 2% within a reasonable timeframe. Speaking at the Istanbul Economic Forum, he noted that recent data have done little to change the outlook assessed in September, with the economy remaining "roughly in the same place."

Our Take

Waller's remarks contrast with market expectations for an October pause and highlight the persistence of hawkish views within the Fed. We continue to see December as the most likely timing for another rate hike, although an upside surprise in core inflation could bring that move forward to the late-October meeting.

Donald Trump said the United States would not strike Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, describing talks with Tehran as productive. The announcement eased fears of an immediate escalation and triggered a decline in oil prices, although risks to regional energy supplies and maritime transportation remain.

Our Take

The announcement provides near-term relief but does not guarantee a resolution to the conflict. A sustained decline in crude prices would ease inflationary pressures and support financial markets. For now, however, supply risks warrant caution over how long the pullback may last.

The University of Michigan's preliminary October U.S. consumer sentiment reading, due today at 8 a.m., could show further deterioration. Consensus forecasts point to 47.6, down from 48.1 in September. Inflation expectations will also be closely watched, particularly the one-year measure, which rose to 4.6% last month amid higher energy costs.

Our Take

Weaker sentiment would suggest greater household caution, although it would not necessarily translate into an immediate decline in consumption. A further rise in inflation expectations would complicate an October Fed pause, while a moderation would strengthen the case for waiting for the next inflation report before adjusting rates.

Corporate News

OpenAI expects annualized revenue to reach or exceed $70 billion by year-end, helping ease concerns about its commercial performance. The outlook followed a Thursday selloff in which those concerns contributed to a 3.8% decline in a basket of OpenAI-linked stocks and a 3.4% drop in the SOX Semiconductor Index.

Anthropic's highly anticipated IPO presents a valuation challenge for investors, who must weigh AI's growth potential against its risks. The debate includes scenarios in which humans could lose control of advanced AI systems, a possibility flagged by industry researchers and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, adding uncertainty around future regulation and the technology's development.

SpaceX announced the acquisition of low-band spectrum to expand Starlink's mobile services in the United States. The deal strengthens its ability to compete in telecommunications and weighed on shares of T-Mobile, Verizon and AT&T, while boosting tower companies on expectations of additional infrastructure demand.

Delta Air Lines lowered its full-year earnings outlook due to rising jet fuel costs linked to the war in the Middle East. The revision underscores how higher energy prices are squeezing airline margins and clouding the industry's profitability outlook.

The To-Do List

  • Review key takeaways from Boston Fed President Susan Collins' remarks.

  • Get ready for the start of third-quarter earnings season next week, with major U.S. banks kicking off the reporting cycle.

  • Today's workout includes three rounds of 12 squats, 10 push-ups, 12 single-arm rows per side, 12 shoulder presses, 15 calf raises and a 30-second plank.

  • Monitor Hurricane Isaias' final track and the extent of damage to Gulf energy infrastructure, with 63% of the region's oil production already shut in.

  • Remember that today marks another anniversary of the birth of Guillermo del Toro, the Academy Award-winning filmmaker from Guadalajara.

Today's Recommendation…

"El último viaje" by Beatriz Rivas follows Antonia and Gaspar, a couple married for more than six decades, as they embark on a road trip with their children. As he begins experiencing memory lapses and she struggles with the effects of aging, the family faces its own personal battles. An intimate novel about the passage of time and the bonds that evolve as life approaches its final chapter.