Mexico's Industrial Activity Advances in June, but Manufacturing Declines
Mexico's industrial activity grew 0.2% month-over-month in June, driven by construction, while manufacturing declined 0.6%
Key points
Mexico's formal labor market showed signs of moderation in July.
The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps its interest rate at 4.35%.
Trump hardens his stance toward Iran, oil prices remain volatile.
For the remainder of the day, the interbank exchange rate (pesos per dollar) could trade between $17.08 - $17.18 spot
Oil once again sets the direction for markets this Tuesday, as investors await U.S. inflation data for July, due tomorrow. Wall Street futures are slightly higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.4%, in a session where risk appetite recovered following statements by Pakistan's Defense Minister, who said the U.S. and Iran are close to some kind of agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Oil is experiencing a volatile session: Brent rose as much as 2.4% to $90 per barrel after Trump hardened his stance toward Iran, but later gave up much of its gains following Pakistan's comments and is trading near $87.79 (+0.1%). WTI is up 0.1% at $82.15. In fixed income, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.69%.
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
S&P 500
7,790
0.20%
Nasdaq
29,850
0.40%
Dow Jones
54,115
0.10%
IPyC
66,960
0.80%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
USD/MXN
17.1160
-0.10%
EUR/MXN
19.7573
-0.10%
EUR/USD
1.1542
0.00%
Índice DXY
99.82
0.00%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Treasury 2 años
4.23
-1.1 bp
Treasury 10 años
4.69
-0.4 bp
TIIE 3 meses
6.58
2.0 bp
M Bono 10 años
9.12
-1.7 bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Petróleo (Brent)
87.79
0.10%
Oro
4,394
0.10%
What you need to know about the economy and markets
Mexico's industrial activity increased 0.2% month-over-month in June, following the 0.7% decline recorded in May, while on an annual basis it increased 0.8%. The result was driven by construction, which grew 3.0% month-over-month, followed by power generation and distribution at 0.9% and mining at 0.6%; in contrast, manufacturing declined 0.6%. On an annual basis, mining growth of 7.0% and construction growth of 4.2% stood out, while manufacturing declined 1.2%.
Our Take
June's rebound shows a recovery in industrial activity after May's contraction, although it remains uneven and depends primarily on construction and mining. The weakness in manufacturing, which has accumulated a 1.1% decline in the first half of the year, remains a concern and limits a stronger recovery in the sector.
Mexico's formal labor market showed signs of moderation in July, with 22.76 million workers registered with the IMSS, a reduction of 19.6 thousand positions compared with June, following an increase of 61 thousand the previous month. So far this year, 243,078 jobs have been created, 95.4% of them permanent, although the pace of job creation continues to show slower momentum. On an annual basis, employment declined by approximately 3.5%, a figure distorted by the extraordinary addition of more than 1.2 million digital platform workers to the IMSS in July 2025.
Our Take
The decline of nearly 20 thousand positions in July confirms the loss of momentum in the formal labor market observed since the beginning of the year, consistent with the broader moderation in economic activity. Nevertheless, the fact that 95.4% of the jobs created this year are permanent provides some support for employment quality.
The Reserve Bank of Australia unanimously kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.35%, marking a pause after three cumulative rate hikes this year, amid signs of economic moderation but with inflation still elevated and upside risks. According to the central bank, financial conditions are now more restrictive than before.
Our Take
The decision reinforces a restrictive, data-dependent monetary policy stance, keeping the possibility of further rate hikes open if inflationary pressures persist, reducing expectations of an easing cycle in the short term.
President Trump demanded reparations from Iran for attacks and damage in the region, a demand Tehran is unlikely to accept, as it is also seeking compensation for the war with the U.S. and Israel. The tensions pushed oil prices higher. However, Pakistan's Defense Minister, Khawaja Asif, said recent signals suggest Washington and Tehran are close to some kind of agreement that would allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, easing some concerns about energy supplies.
Our Take
The war is at a sort of impasse over who will make the first concession. There is no guarantee that the current diplomatic efforts will lead to lasting peace. The lack of direct negotiations between the two countries makes a short-term agreement difficult to envision.
Corporate News
Nvidia has partnered with several major U.S. investment funds to raise $500 billion, marking a new stage in the AI boom by shifting part of its financing toward private capital. The transaction will accelerate the expansion of data centers and computing capacity, although it also increases leverage, circularity, and overinvestment risks if future demand for AI infrastructure does not justify the current pace of investment.
Intel raised $20 billion through an expanded share offering, one-third more than it had sought when it announced the transaction Monday morning. The chipmaker set the offering price at $95 per share, representing a 6.5% discount to Friday's closing price. The share sale attracted more than $100 billion in demand. Intel's transaction demonstrates the strength of investor demand for companies linked to the artificial intelligence supply chain.
General Motors will sell its half of a electric vehicle battery joint venture valued at $3.5 billion in Indiana to its partner Samsung, in a new retreat by the automaker from electric vehicles.
The To-do List
Monitor oil prices: Trump demanded reparations from Iran, but Pakistan's Defense Minister says both countries are close to some kind of agreement on the Strait of Hormuz.
Tonight, make tlayudas with black beans, tasajo, and quesillo, a classic Oaxacan dish that deserves a quiet evening to be enjoyed at a leisurely pace.
Dedicate 30 minutes to a swimming or pool workout, one of the most complete forms of exercise and one that has the least impact on the joints.
Today marks another anniversary of the Civil Holidays Law, enacted by Benito Juárez in 1859, which established Mexico's official calendar of public holidays.
Today's Quote...
"Be the change you want to see in the world." — Mahatma Gandhi
Alejandra Marcos amarcos@kapital.com
James Salazar jsalazars@kapital.com
Guillermo Quechol gquechol@kapital.com
Nahely Suasnavar nsuasnavara@kapital.com
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