Mexico’s industrial activity grew 0.5% month over month and 2.4% year over year in July. Construction led the increase with a monthly gain of 0.9%, followed by manufacturing at 0.7%, while mining declined 1.8%. During the first seven months of the year, industrial production accumulated growth of just 0.4%.

Our Take July’s rebound confirms an improvement in industrial activity, although it remains concentrated in construction. The cumulative decline in manufacturing and the monthly contraction in mining show that the recovery remains uneven and is still insufficient to anticipate a sustained acceleration in the sector.

The U.K. economy grew 0.4% month over month in July, after expanding 0.3% in June. The result was supported by services, which increased 0.4%, while production and construction grew 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. Compared with July 2025, GDP increased 1.6%.

Our Take The U.K. economy has performed much better than expected amid the consequences of the war with Iran, although momentum is expected to slow during the second half of the year.

The IMF said the global economy has withstood the impact of the war in the Middle East better than expected and maintains a growth forecast of around 3% in 2026. However, it warned that risks remain elevated amid persistently high energy prices. Although inflation expectations have increased, they remain anchored over the long term.

Our Take The resilience of economic activity reduces the immediate risk of a global recession, but the energy shock keeps open the possibility of weaker growth and higher inflation. This scenario would limit the room for central banks to ease monetary policy and prolong market volatility.

Today at 8am, the University of Michigan’s preliminary September reading of consumer confidence will be released. Consensus expects a moderate decline from 51.7 to 51.0 points, amid concerns over energy prices, inflation, and the labor market outlook. Attention will also focus on inflation expectations.

Our Take A larger-than-expected decline would confirm that the energy shock is beginning to erode households’ willingness to spend and would reinforce signs of economic moderation. However, a further increase in inflation expectations would carry greater weight for the Fed, as it would support a more restrictive monetary policy stance.

Corporate news

Oracle reported better-than-expected results for its fiscal first quarter of 2027. Its broad portfolio of artificial intelligence contracts is beginning to translate into higher revenue, while customer prepayments are helping moderate the financing cost of its investment program. Strong contract growth also improves visibility into the company’s future performance.

Adobe reported record revenue of $6.76 billion in its fiscal third quarter, representing 13% annual growth, while adjusted earnings per share rose to $6.13. The company highlighted that recurring revenue linked to artificial intelligence grew more than 150%, raised its full-year outlook, and reached 1 billion monthly active users across its creativity and productivity solutions.

Microsoft plans to increase its global data center capacity from 12 to nearly 38 gigawatts by 2032, more than tripling its current infrastructure. Around one-third would be allocated to specialized artificial intelligence equipment, compared with just 2 gigawatts today, confirming the scale of its commitment to meeting growing demand for services such as Azure and Copilot.

OpenAI would be willing to moderate the development of advanced artificial intelligence models amid growing concerns over their risks. Sam Altman told employees that the company could coordinate such an adjustment with other labs, although he acknowledged that not all of them would agree to slow the pace of innovation.

The “to do list”

  • Continue monitoring oil prices, which briefly reached $109 per barrel overnight, their highest level in four months

  • Keep an eye on U.S. diesel prices, which have surpassed $6 per gallon for the first time, ahead of the peak-demand season

  • Relive the best moments from the San Francisco 49ers’ victory over the Los Angeles Rams in the first NFL regular-season game played in Australia, another milestone in the league’s international expansion.

  • Remember that today marks 25 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York, Washington, and Pennsylvania, an event that marked a turning point in security policy over the following two decades.

Today’s recommendation…

If you are looking for a more relaxed cultural plan this weekend, we recommend the Coffee and Chocolate Artisan Fair in Coyoacán (Mexico City), taking place from September 11 to 13 from 12:00 to 20:00, featuring tastings and sales of coffee, cacao, and chocolate from producers in Veracruz, Oaxaca, and Chiapas, as well as local handicrafts.