The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the limited signs that the United States, Israel, and Iran will quickly end hostilities have triggered a new flight from risk. Iran set two oil tankers on fire in Iraqi waters and heightened threats to energy and transport infrastructure, as Iraq had to halt operations at its oil ports.

Our take

Energy markets remain at the center of investors’ attention, and volatility continues to dominate oil and gas prices. The latest surge in crude prices shows that fears the war could last longer outweigh the relief generated by the largest emergency release of strategic oil reserves carried out by developed countries.

Initial jobless claims in the United States declined slightly last week, indicating that layoffs remain contained. Claims fell by 1,000 to 213,000 in the week ending March 7, according to data from the Department of Labor. Market expectations had been for 215,000 claims.

Our take

Claims remaining around 213,000 suggest that the loss of momentum in the U.S. labor market remains gradual and selective rather than a generalized collapse.

The U.S. Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, announced the formal launch of investigations into 16 economies, including Mexico, under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The goal is to determine whether their trade policies and practices are unreasonable or discriminatory and restrict U.S. commerce. The central accusation focuses on the concept of “structural excess production capacity.” The Trump administration argues that these economies produce more goods than their domestic demand can absorb, generating persistent trade surpluses that displace U.S. producers. The process will begin with the opening of a public comment docket on March 17, followed by a formal hearing scheduled for May 5, 2026.

Our take

The United States appears to be building options for new tariffs once the 150-day window expires in late July for those currently applied under Section 122. For Mexico, it is not immediately clear how this new investigation process will interact with the commitments established under the USMCA, and it could become another issue to resolve during the upcoming review of the trilateral agreement on July 1.

Morgan Stanley has limited redemptions in one of its private credit funds after investors attempted to withdraw nearly 11% of outstanding shares. Specifically, the North Haven Private Income Fund received redemption requests close to 11% of assets, well above the 5% quarterly limit allowed by the fund. As a result, the firm was only able to partially satisfy withdrawal requests.

Our take

The episode has reignited debate on Wall Street about liquidity risks in the private credit market, a segment that has grown rapidly in recent years and invests in less liquid assets. Concerns over credit deterioration, the disruption caused by artificial intelligence in software companies, and higher interest rates are weighing on the private credit market, which totals roughly two trillion dollars.

Markets and Stocks

In commodities markets, oil experienced a significant rebound. WTI futures rose nearly 5% to around 91.43 dollars, and Brent briefly surpassed 100 dollars per barrel. The increase reflects intensified Iranian attacks on shipping assets and oil facilities in the region, heightening concerns about supply disruptions. Meanwhile, gold and silver maintained a positive bias, trading 0.16% and 1.9% higher, respectively.

Corporate

Cemex announced the sale of part of its operations in Colombia for a combined price of approximately 555 million dollars, equivalent to about ten times its 2025 EBITDA. The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals. Additionally, Cemex is negotiating with third parties the sale of remaining assets in the same region for roughly 70 million dollars. After completing these transactions, the company will retain two cement plants in Colombia with a combined installed capacity of 1.6 million tons per year.

Our take

The transaction is consistent with Cemex’s portfolio rebalancing strategy initiated in 2018, which has prioritized strengthening its presence in the United States, Europe, and Mexico. The proceeds could be used to reduce debt or to invest in markets that management considers strategic. Notably, Cemex is not fully exiting Colombia, as it retains significant capacity in Maceo and Cúcuta.

FEMSA announced the closing of the merger between BradyPLUS and Imperial Dade, two distributors of packaging products, disposables, and maintenance supplies in the United States. As a result of the transaction, FEMSA retains an approximately 19% stake in the combined company and will hold representation on its board of directors. The company did not disclose additional financial details.

Our take

The merger reinforces FEMSA’s strategy to diversify its portfolio beyond its traditional beverage and retail businesses, a direction the company has pursued more clearly since divesting its stake in Heineken.

Shares of Bumble rose 28% in pre-market trading after the company unveiled a personal artificial intelligence assistant designed to act as an intermediary in the dating process.

Airbnb is preparing to issue investment-grade bonds in the dollar market for the first time, in a transaction coordinated by Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley. The deal would mark the second debut in the dollar investment-grade bond market in the same week, following Honeywell Aerospace’s issuance on Tuesday.

Atlassian announced layoffs of approximately 1,600 employees, around 10% of its global workforce. Co-founder and CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes said that artificial intelligence is transforming the skill sets the company needs. Atlassian’s stock has declined sharply in recent months and faces the growing threat of AI models capable of automating programming tasks.

The to-do list

Recommendation of the day

“Courage is not the absence of fear, but the judgment that something else is more important.”