The increase came in well below expectations, despite the rise in energy costs related to the Iran war.
Markets and Stocks
S&P 500 futures were advancing around 0.3% in the morning, extending a streak that led the index to erase on Monday the entirety of its losses accumulated since the start of the Iran conflict. WTI was falling 2.1% toward US$97 per barrel and Brent remained below US$100, after Reuters reports indicated that the US and Iran are evaluating resuming talks before the two-week ceasefire expires next week. The dollar fell to its lowest level in a month and a half. JPMorgan reported this morning earnings per share of US$5.94, beating estimates, though it reduced its net interest income guidance for the year. The IMF published its updated global economic outlook, with downward revisions to growth and upward revisions to inflation. Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, and Johnson & Johnson also reported today.
Key points
Trump said he was continuing dialogue with Iran to reach an agreement.
China's exports grow in March at their slowest pace in six months.
The IMF cuts its global GDP growth forecast for 2026 by two tenths to 3.1%; Mexico's forecast is raised one tenth to 1.6%.
The Q1 2026 earnings season continues with figures from the major banks, Tuesday saw results from BlackRock, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citi.
What you need to know about the economy and markets
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.5% month-on-month in March 2026, accumulating three consecutive months of increases, following advances of 0.5% in February and 0.6% in January. Despite the increase, it came in well below the anticipated +1.1%. On an annual basis, the index grew 4.0%, its largest increase since February 2023. The monthly increase was driven by goods (+1.6%), particularly the energy component (+8.5%), while services remained unchanged. Meanwhile, the core index (excluding food, energy, and trade) grew 0.2% monthly and 3.6% annually.
Our take
The report is a positive surprise, as following last week's consumer inflation figure, producer prices were also expected to report sharp increases in an environment of robust energy cost increases linked to the war in Iran. However, if the conflict is prolonged, this indicator could eventually begin to reflect significant pressures.
Despite the fragility of the ceasefire agreement, it remains in place. Various sources suggest that both parties continue to dialogue and there could be a new round of negotiations before the two-week ceasefire ends on April 22. Speculation is that it could happen as soon as this Thursday. The main sticking point revolves around control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program.
Our take
Markets are moving on hope, not resolution. The failed weekend talks produced no agreement, but they did not close the door to diplomacy either, and that is enough to keep asset prices rising for now, with moderate pullbacks in oil prices.
China's exports grew 2.5% in March, their lowest level in six months. The figure also came in well below the analyst consensus forecast of 8.6% growth, and represents a marked weakening compared to the combined 21.8% increase recorded in the first two months of the year. Imports, on the other hand, surged 27.8% annually, the largest growth in more than four years.
Our take
Despite the March figure showing that export growth slowed significantly, for the first quarter they still registered an impressive increase of 14.7%. The overall trend is more important than a single month's data and, ultimately, the first quarter of 2026 shows that external demand remains solid. The impact of the war with Iran and higher oil prices does not yet appear to have been fully reflected in the data, so we will need to see what happens going forward.
The International Monetary Fund lowered its growth forecasts for this year after the war in the Middle East triggered a severe oil crisis, and included the possibility of a recession if the conflict is prolonged and energy infrastructure suffers serious damage. It now expects global GDP to grow 3.1% this year, compared to the 3.3% projected in January, according to the update of its World Economic Outlook report. This assumes a relatively short-duration armed conflict and a moderate increase in energy prices this year. Given the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the US-Israeli attack on Iran that began on February 28, the IMF presented three scenarios. In the most severe, the world would be on the verge of entering recession, which the IMF defines as growth below 2%.
Our take
The analysis of the economic repercussions of the armed conflict, which has kept the Strait of Hormuz practically closed and triggered a sharp rise in oil prices, is expected to be a top priority for the finance ministers and central bank governors gathered this week in Washington for the IMF and World Bank spring meetings.
Markets and Stocks
The International Energy Agency significantly cut its global oil supply and demand projections, anticipating that world demand will fall in 2026 for the first time since 2020 as a consequence of the price surge resulting from the conflict. The IEA warned that energy markets and economies around the world must prepare for significant disruptions in the months ahead. Meanwhile, Russia's oil export revenues nearly doubled in March, benefiting from the price surge as its seaborne exports bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Corporate News
JPMorgan reported earnings per share of US$5.94 for the first quarter, beating estimates. Fixed income revenues rose 21%, driven by activity in commodities, credit, currencies, and emerging markets, particularly the most active segments during the Iran conflict. However, JPMorgan reduced its full-year net interest income guidance to US$103 billion. CEO Jamie Dimon warned of an increasingly complex set of risks including geopolitical tensions, energy volatility, trade uncertainty, global fiscal deficits, and elevated asset prices.
BlackRock reported earnings per share of US$12.53, beating expectations. Total net flows reached US$130 billion, led by ETFs. Performance fees in private markets jumped to US$272 million from US$60 million the prior year. One notable aspect was the marginal decline in private market assets, reflecting the redemption pressure the sector has faced, though CEO Larry Fink noted that private credit and infrastructure continue to attract new capital.
According to Bloomberg reports, Amazon is in talks to acquire Globalstar, a satellite operator. Globalstar could significantly accelerate the deployment of Amazon Leo, the company's satellite network project with which it seeks to compete with SpaceX's Starlink, given that it already operates a functional satellite network.
Johnson & Johnson reported revenues and earnings that exceeded market forecasts. J&J also raised its annual revenue guidance, with expected growth of 7.0%, and 7.1% in earnings.
The to-do list
Follow closely any announcement of a new round of negotiations between the US and Iran.
Review JPMorgan's results carefully: it beat estimates but reduced its net interest income guidance, and Dimon's words on global risks are the most honest reading of the current environment.
Monitor the IMF's updated projections: it cut global growth to 3.1% and presented three scenarios, the most severe of which points to a global recession.
Review exposure to European luxury stocks after the LVMH report — Hermès and Kering report today and tomorrow, and their figures will determine whether the sector can sustain the rebound or whether further downward revisions are pending.
In the evening, exercise or go for a walk, the body also needs to process a week loaded with information.
Quote of the day
"Predict little, but get it right."
— Charlie Munger.
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
S&P 500
6,938
0.20%
Nasdaq
25,665
0.50%
Dow Jones
48,454
0.10%
IPyC
69,776
0.00%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
USD/MXN
17.2202
-0.50%
EUR/MXN
20.334
0.00%
EUR/USD
1.1805
0.40%
Índice DXY
98.03
-0.30%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
activo
valor
variacion_pct
Treasury 2 años
3.78
-0.1 bp
Treasury 10 años
4.30
-0.2 bp
TIIE 3 meses
8.31
2.0 bp
M Bono 10 años
9.01
0.0 bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Activo
valor
variacion_pct
Petróleo (Brent)
97.93
-1.40%
Oro
4,775
0.80%
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