Mexico welcomes more travelers, but tourism spending loses momentu
Tourist arrivals to Mexico increased 2.9% year over year in July, while total spending declined 1.3%. Air arrivals fell 5.7%.
Key points
Japan’s industrial production declines in July
Anthropic proposes slowing advanced AI development over safety concerns
Oil rises after Saudi pipeline shutdown
Mexico subsidizes diesel for the first time since 2022.
For the rest of the day, the interbank exchange rate (pesos per dollar) could trade between $16.xx - $17.xx spot
Futures are opening in the red today. The S&P 500 is down 0.7% and the Nasdaq 100 1.7%, pressured by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s call to slow AI development, backed by Sam Altman and Elon Musk, raising questions about the engine that has supported the equity rally. In fixed income, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.8 basis points and remains around 5%, a level that is more psychological than technical, with markets pricing in nearly a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike on Wednesday. In energy, Brent is up 4.1% to above $108 per barrel and WTI 4.3% to around $104, after Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West pipeline following a series of attacks, keeping inflation concerns alive.
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
S&P 500
7,605
-0.70%
Nasdaq
28,878
-1.70%
Dow Jones
52,385
-0.40%
IPyC
63,956
0.00%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange
USD/MXN
17.1379
1.00%
EUR/MXN
19.7713
0.50%
EUR/USD
1.1531
-0.60%
Índice DXY
99.63
0.50%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Treasury 2 años
4.65
0.5 bp
Treasury 10 años
4.98
0.8 bp
TIIE 3 meses
9.85
-0.2 bp
M Bono 10 años
9.46
-0.6 bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Petróleo (Brent)
108.87
4.10%
Oro
4,271
-1.80%
What you need to know about the economy and markets
In July, Mexico received 8.65 million international travelers, 2.9% more than a year earlier, although their total spending declined 1.3% to $2.961 billion. The air travel segment, which is key given its higher spending levels, posted a 5.7% decline in arrivals and a 3.3% drop in spending, despite average spending per tourist increasing 2.5% to $1,223.
Our Take
International tourism grew in volume, but not in spending, due to a mix more heavily concentrated in border visitors and weaker air travel. Higher average spending among those arriving by air cushioned the decline, although recovering this flow will be necessary to strengthen tourism revenues and activity across the country’s main destinations.
Japan’s industrial production fell 0.2% month over month in July, below the preliminary 0.1% increase, ending three consecutive months of growth. On an annual basis, output increased 3.9%, supported by production machinery, chemical products and electronic components, although weakness persisted in transportation equipment and metal products.
Our Take
The downward revision confirms that Japan’s industrial recovery remains uneven and adds another argument for the Bank of Japan to proceed cautiously. However, annual production growth and inflationary pressures suggest that the data point alone would be unlikely to prevent a rate hike, although it could support a more gradual pace of tightening.
The AI debate intensified after Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, called for slowing the development of the most advanced models and announced new safeguards, including independent evaluations. Sam Altman and Elon Musk backed the proposal, which raised concerns about the potential impact of a slowdown on investment and earnings expectations across the technology value chain.
Our Take
Initially, this initiative could weigh on sector valuations, although we do not believe it will change companies’ investment plans, but rather redirect part of that spending toward improving the reliability and safety of these systems. In addition, genuine doubts remain about how committed they are to moderating the pace of development given the intense competition coming from China.
The shutdown of a key pipeline that allowed Saudi Arabia to transport gas and oil without passing through the Strait of Hormuz, following several drone attacks, worsened constraints on regional supply. The outlook became more complicated after the cancellation of a meeting between Iran and the Persian Gulf states in Oman, as well as the seizure of Perim Island by the Houthis, increasing the risk to maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This combination of factors is pushing oil prices above $108 per barrel.
Our Take
A lasting solution requires an understanding between the United States and Iran that still appears distant and could be delayed until after the midterm elections. Washington wants any agreement to include the nuclear program, while Tehran is demanding the lifting of the blockade on its ports, the resumption of its oil exports and access to frozen assets abroad.
Mexico resumed diesel subsidies for the first time since 2022 amid the rise in international prices. From September 12 to 18, the Finance Ministry will cover 100% of the IEPS excise tax, equivalent to 7.36 pesos per liter, and will provide an additional subsidy of 15 cents.
Our Take
The subsidy will help contain the impact of diesel prices on inflation and transportation costs, but will shift part of the energy shock onto public finances. If international prices remain elevated, maintaining the support could further reduce the government’s already limited fiscal space.
Corporate news
Kapital Grupo Financiero raised $125 million through a new round of equity and debt led by Tru Arrow Partners and Fasanara Capital, with participation from Cervin Ventures and Niya Partners. The funds will be used to strengthen its artificial intelligence platform, expand its financial services ecosystem and accelerate its growth in Mexico and the United States.
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, confirmed that the company will not go public in 2026, ruling out one of Wall Street’s most highly anticipated initial public offerings. The decision extends its time in private markets and postpones the opportunity for investors to gain direct exposure to one of the most prominent companies in the artificial intelligence boom.
Aliko Dangote (Africa’s richest man) launched a $1.6 billion initial public offering for his refinery in Nigeria, the largest IPO in African history. The transaction will close on October 13, and the proceeds will allow it to double capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028, which would make it the largest in the world.
The “to do list”
Watch how the AI industry’s call to slow development evolves, and whether this narrative translates into actual changes in investment behavior.
Closely follow any new date for the postponed meeting between Iran and the Gulf nations regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and its impact on Brent.
Monitor the Senate vote on the Clarity Act, which seeks to establish a clear regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the U.S.
Today’s routine: warm up and complete three rounds of squats, push-ups, planks, lunges and sit-ups. Finish with a few minutes of stretching.
Remember the opening of the Congress of Anáhuac in 1813, where Morelos presented the “Sentiments of the Nation,” one of the foundational documents of Mexican independence thought.
Today’s quote…
“As soon as an Analytical Engine exists, it will necessarily guide the future course of science”
- Charles Baggage
Alejandra Marcos amarcos@kapital.com
James Salazar jsalazars@kapital.com
Guillermo Quechol gquechol@kapital.com
Nahely Suasnavar nsuasnavara@kapital.com
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