Mexico's private consumption likely grew 0.2% month-on-month in February and was unchanged in March.
If confirmed, these early estimates would place first-quarter private consumption growth at 2.3% annually.
Markets and Stocks
US futures were holding largely unchanged, near 7,000 points for the S&P 500, close to its all-time high, while WTI was rising 1.1% toward US$92 per barrel and Brent was approaching US$96. Trump declared that the war is close to ending and that talks with Iran could resume within the next two days, suggesting that extending the ceasefire set to expire next week may not be necessary. The Pentagon simultaneously confirmed that the naval blockade is working and that six merchant vessels have been returned to Iranian ports. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America reported results that beat market expectations. The dollar is approaching its lowest levels since the start of the conflict. Today is Tax Day in the US and the Fed publishes the Beige Book.
Key points
The US suggests near-term progress toward an agreement to end the conflict with Iran.
Eurozone industrial production grew 0.4% month-on-month in February, more than expected.
New York State manufacturing activity reaches its best level in five months.
US tariffs could be reinstated in July at levels prior to the Supreme Court suspension.
At 12pm, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book is published.
What you need to know about the economy and markets
The Early Private Consumption Indicator anticipates that private consumption in Mexico grew 2.1% annually in both February and March 2026. On a monthly basis, an advance of 0.2% is estimated for February and stagnation (0.0%) for March, suggesting a loss of momentum at the margin. The index level would stand at 112.4 points in both months, remaining practically unchanged.
Our take
Private consumption maintains moderate growth in annual terms, but is showing some signs of short-term deceleration, having stagnated in March. This suggests that, despite some resilience in household spending, domestic demand is losing some momentum, in line with a weaker economic environment and still-restrictive financial conditions.
President Donald Trump said that talks with Iran could resume in Pakistan within the next two days and that it might not be necessary to extend the ceasefire expiring next week, suggesting near-term progress toward an agreement to end the nearly seven-week conflict. Pakistani and Iranian officials also said negotiations could restart.
Our take
Market sentiment has improved on expectations that de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, after more than a month of hostilities, will help moderate oil prices and inflation, while supporting economic growth. However, it should be noted that markets do not appear to be pricing in the possibility of another failure in the peace negotiations, something that could still occur and would translate into new and sharp episodes of volatility.
Eurozone industrial production increased 0.4% in February compared to January, more than expected, while recording a 0.6% decline compared to the same month last year, less than expected. In the month, production increased 0.5% for intermediate goods, 1.0% for capital goods, and 2.6% for non-durable consumer goods. In contrast, production fell 2.1% for energy and 1.3% for durable consumer goods.
Our take
With the start of the war in Iran, greater pressure on production is expected. Energy-intensive industries will see their competitiveness renewed and uncertainty could weigh on investment decisions. While other sectors, mainly high-tech, could continue to perform well, it should be noted that downside risks to industrial activity have increased.
The New York State Manufacturing Index in the US rose in April to 11.0 points, its best level in five months, thus surpassing the neutral line and indicating moderate expansion of factory activity. The new orders index increased 12.9 points to 19.3, while the shipments index surged 27.1 points to 20.2, both at their highest levels since 2023. The prices paid indicator accelerated sharply, up 14.4 points to 51.0, while prices received remained relatively stable at 21.8. Regarding six-month expectations, the future conditions index retreated 11.4 points to 19.6, and the capital investment index fell 8.5 points to 13.1.
Our take
April's rebound is an encouraging signal after several months of stagnation. However, the sector faces an environment of rising costs and lower forward visibility, a combination that will limit the magnitude and sustainability of the recovery.
According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US tariffs could be reinstated in July at the levels in effect before the Supreme Court struck down much of those measures. Following the judicial ruling that invalidated many of its global tariffs, the US administration imposed a temporary 10% levy covering numerous imports. That measure will expire on July 24. It also launched several investigations under Section 301, including probes into other countries' industrial overcapacity and forced labor practices, which could result in new tariffs in the coming months.
Our take
Trump is seeking to reinstate his tariff wall using various legal tools, after the Supreme Court ruled that the use of emergency powers to impose those levies was unconstitutional.
Markets and Stocks
WTI was rising 1.1% toward US$92 per barrel and Brent was approaching US$96, at levels that still represent a significant premium over the pre-conflict US$70 but well below the US$115–120 peaks of previous weeks. Gold was falling 0.6% toward US$4,814 per ounce, giving back ground as investors rotate from safe-haven assets toward equities. Copper rose to its highest level in more than a month. Bitcoin was holding steady near US$74,150.
Corporate New
Morgan Stanley reported earnings per share of US$3.43 (vs. US$3.00 estimated). The equities business reached a record high with 25% growth, and fixed income rose 29%. Morgan Stanley closed the banking week on a positive note, even outperforming Goldman Sachs in fixed income, a result that speaks to the firm's ability to capitalize on volatility in commodities and energy during the conflict. The combination of record trading with a wealth management business also at all-time highs reflects the diversified business model that Ted Pick has championed since taking the helm in 2024.
Bank of America reported earnings per share of US$1.11, beating the estimate of US$1.01, with total revenues of US$30.43 billion versus the expected US$29.93 billion. BofA's report offers the broadest perspective on the US consumer of all the major banks this week. CEO Brian Moynihan's conclusion highlighting solid consumption and stable asset quality is a reassuring signal for investors who feared an accelerated deterioration in consumer health.
Amazon officially confirmed the acquisition of Globalstar for US$11.57 billion, in what will be its biggest bet in the satellite sector. The deal seeks to accelerate the deployment of Amazon Leo to compete with SpaceX's Starlink, which already surpasses 10 million active customers and projects more than US$9 billion in revenues this year. Apple, which holds a 20% stake in Globalstar and uses its network for the iPhone emergency service, could have influence over the terms of the transaction.
The to-do list
Follow Bank of America and Morgan Stanley results in the morning, and take time to read Jamie Dimon's full statement from yesterday carefully.
Try a new recipe tonight: a risotto is easier than it seems and it's the kind of cooking that forces you to disconnect, you can't stop stirring.
Pick up that series or film you've been meaning to watch, a good story always reframes the week.
If you haven't been to the gym this week, today is the day; Thursday and Friday always get complicated.
Get through at least ten pages of the book on your nightstand, reading habits are built on ordinary days.
Quote of the day
"Discipline is choosing between what you want now and what you want most."
— Abraham Lincoln
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
S&P 500
7,008
0.10%
Nasdaq
25,994
0.00%
Dow Jones
48,794
0.10%
IPyC
68,690
0.00%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
USD/MXN
17.2766
0.10%
EUR/MXN
20.3674
0.10%
EUR/USD
1.1788
-0.10%
Índice DXY
98.22
0.10%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
Treasury 2 años
3.76
0.6 bp
Treasury 10 años
4.27
1.0 bp
TIIE 3 meses
8.31
2.0 bp
M Bono 10 años
9.01
0.0 bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
Petróleo (Brent)
95.32
0.60%
Oro
4,813
-0.60%
Important Notice
This document is confidential and intended solely for the use of clients and prospective clients of Kapital México Grupo Financiero (“Kapital”). The opinions contained herein reflect exclusively the views of the analysts as of the date of preparation, and such analysts do not receive any compensation from persons other than Kapital. Kapital hereby declares the following:
Kapital does not hold investments in the securities covered by this analytical report that represent one percent (1%) or more of its securities portfolio.
Analysts may hold investments in certain issuers whose securities are the subject matter of this Analytical Report.
No member of the Board of Directors, Chief Executive Officer, or senior officer of Kapital or of the entities comprising Kapital, occupying positions immediately below such level, holds any relevant position in the issuers of the securities covered by this analytical report.
During the past twelve months, where applicable, there have been changes in the direction of the opinions expressed in the analytical reports regarding the issuers covered by this analytical report, in accordance with prevailing economic, political, and social market conditions.
The contents of this document are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer or investment recommendation. Kapital assumes no liability for decisions made based on this information. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
