Mexico's private consumption would have moderated its growth pace in June, according to its early indicator.
Based on early estimates, Mexico's private consumption grew 0.4% monthly in May and 0.1% in June.
Key points
Mexico's ANTAD sales fall 1.6% annually in June.
US producer prices decelerate in June.
China's second-quarter GDP growth is the weakest in three years.
Eurozone industrial production fell 0.2% monthly in May.
Kevin Warsh now testifies before the US Senate.
For the rest of the day, the interbank exchange rate (pesos per dollar) could trade between $17.33 and $17.48 spot.
Caution prevails in financial markets due to rising oil prices for the third consecutive day. Traders are reducing their bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes following US inflation data that came in below expectations, while the artificial intelligence sector gains new momentum after ASML raised its sales forecast, amid a good start to the quarterly earnings season and deteriorating geopolitical risk. S&P 500 futures rise 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.4%. Brent crude rises 1.1% to $85.60 per barrel; WTI gains 1.0% to $80.10 per barrel. The US 10-year Treasury yield holds around 4.60%.
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
S&P 500
7,614
0.30%
Nasdaq
29,978
0.60%
Dow Jones
52,933
0.30%
IPyC
67,244
1.10%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
USD/MXN
17.3851
-0.20%
EUR/MXN
19.8591
-0.20%
EUR/USD
1.1429
0.10%
Índice DXY
100.86
-0.10%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Treasury 2 años
4.15
-3.9bp
Treasury 10 años
4.56
-2.4bp
TIIE 3 meses
6.56
2.0bp
M Bono 10 años
9.1
0.9bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Petróleo (Brent)
85.05
0.40%
Oro
4,068
0.40%
What you need to know about the economy and markets
INEGI estimates that Mexico's private consumption will maintain positive performance during May and June 2026, though with a slight moderation trend. The Early Private Consumption Indicator (IOCP) anticipates annual growth of 2.8% in May and 2.6% in June. On a monthly basis, an advance of 0.4% is expected in May and 0.1% in June.
Our Take
The early estimates suggest that private consumption continues to be one of the main supports of Mexico's economic activity. While annual growth would moderate slightly in June, the positive monthly variations indicate that household spending would continue to expand, though at a more gradual pace.
ANTAD sales showed weak performance in June 2026. On a same-store basis, sales fell 1.6% annually in nominal terms, while on a total-store basis they grew just 0.6% annually. The retreat was influenced by a calendar effect, as June had one fewer Sunday compared to the same month of 2025, as well as by the 2026 World Cup, which temporarily modified consumption patterns and reduced foot traffic to physical stores. By format, supermarkets recorded a 2.7% same-store decline, department stores retreated 3.7%, while specialty stores were the only segment with growth, advancing 3.1%.
Our Take
June's performance reflects a temporary moderation of consumption at ANTAD-affiliated establishments, explained primarily by seasonal and calendar factors rather than a structural deterioration of demand. The impact of the World Cup and fewer high-traffic days particularly affected supermarket and department store formats.
US producer prices decelerated unexpectedly in June, with the core index, which excludes food and energy, advancing 4.7% annually and 0.2% monthly, while the headline index increased 5.5% annually and fell -0.3% monthly. Energy retreated 6.4% and food prices fell for the first time in three months, moderating inflationary pressures just one day after consumer inflation data also came in more benign than expected.
Our Take
The reading reinforces the narrative of a more contained disinflation than expected and expands the Federal Reserve's room to postpone a potential upward adjustment to its federal funds rate. However, the caution expressed by President Warsh before Congress, warning against prematurely declaring the battle against inflation resolved, is pertinent given that the recent escalation of the Middle East conflict introduces upside risk to energy costs.
China's GDP grew 4.3% annually in the second quarter, below the official 4.5%-5.0% range and the consensus of 4.5%, the weakest pace in more than three years; on a quarterly basis, growth was just 0.9%, the slowest in more than two years. Fixed asset investment fell 5.7% in the first half, with real estate investment retreating 18%, its worst decline since records began in 1992. In contrast, retail sales surprised to the upside with a 1% annual advance and industrial production rose 5.3%.
Our Take
The GDP reading confirms a deceleration pattern that was already becoming visible and reinforces the picture of an economy sustained more by the external sector than by domestic demand. Stimulus measures are expected to intensify in the third quarter, including the possibility of a reduction in official interest rates to boost investment demand.
Eurozone industrial production registered a 0.2% decline in May compared to the prior month, while compared to May the prior year, it fell 1.2%, according to Eurostat figures. The decline was mainly due to the fall in durable consumer goods production, which has been a more negative factor for production in recent months.
Our Take
Industrial activity continues to advance at a slow pace and without a clear direction. The war in the Middle East has not triggered a large production decline, but the recent optimism has not yet translated into an increase in output.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is again in the spotlight with his address before the Senate Banking Committee (8am), where he will present the institution's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report, after having done the same yesterday before the House of Representatives, where he said the central bank has no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation, though he avoided giving any guidance on what will happen at the July or September meetings.
Our Take
Warsh's messages will very likely be very similar to those communicated yesterday with House members. He will avoid making statements about the Fed's future rate steps, will confirm the commitment to price stability, and will reiterate the role of Fed independence.
Corporate news
Morgan Stanley reported revenues of $6.3 billion in its equity trading business during the second quarter, a 69% annual advance and a new all-time record that surpassed the prior record from the first quarter. The firm's wealth management business captured $148.1 billion in new net assets, above what analysts expected.
Our Take
The result confirms that the second quarter was exceptional for US investment banking as a whole (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup also reported all-time highs in equity trading).
ASML raised its annual sales forecast to a range of between €43 billion and €45 billion, above the consensus estimate of €39.3 billion. The company announced plans to increase its lithography machine manufacturing capacity by 30% by 2027, and is evaluating an additional 30% increase for 2028 in response to demand from clients such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics.
BlackRock reported adjusted earnings per share of $13.91 in the second quarter, above the consensus estimate of $12.66, with revenues advancing 31% annually to $7.1 billion. The firm captured $192 billion in net client flows in the quarter, bringing its total assets above $15 trillion for the first time in its history; ETF flows totaled $178 billion. CEO Larry Fink announced an increase in the 2026 share buyback program to $2 billion.
Stripe and private equity firm Advent International presented an offer to acquire PayPal at a valuation above $53 billion. Both companies are thus offering $60.50 per PayPal share, representing a 28% premium over Tuesday's close. However, negotiations are being conducted confidentially.
The to-do list
Follow Warsh's testimony before the Senate at 8:00am: the message will be consistent with yesterday's before the House, zero tolerance for inflation and no explicit guidance on July or September.
Monitor oil throughout the day: three consecutive sessions of gains reflect that the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz could erase part of the inflationary relief.
Today at 1:00pm the semifinal Argentina vs. England kicks off, one of the most history-laden duels in world football, have everything ready before midday and enjoy the match.
Dedicate 20 minutes to a jump rope or jogging session at home, enter the game with energy.
Today's quote…
"Rain is only a problem for those who don't want to get wet."
— Japanese proverb
Alejandra Marcos amarcos@kapital.com
James Salazar jsalazars@kapital.com
Guillermo Quechol gquechol@kapital.com
Nahely Suasnavar nsuasnavara@kapital.com
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