The Eurozone returned to a goods trade surplus in February after January's deficit
The monthly surplus recovery was driven in part by the machinery and vehicles sector.
Markets and Stocks
US futures were posting gains in the morning, with the S&P 500 showing a rapid recovery from the Iran conflict in six weeks, faster than the post-Liberation Day rebound last year. WTI was falling 2.6% toward US$92 per barrel and Brent was approaching US$95, after Trump declared that Iran has made concessions and that a deal could be announced fairly soon. Axios reported that one of the elements under discussion involves the US releasing US$20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Tehran surrendering its enriched uranium inventory. The dollar index was falling 0.1% toward its lowest levels since the start of the conflict. Israel and Lebanon also agreed to a ten-day ceasefire, with Trump inviting the leaders of both countries to the White House for further talks. Finally, Netflix shares were retreating nearly 10% in pre-market trading after the company published second-quarter guidance below estimates and announced the departure of co-founder Reed Hastings from the board of directors.
Key points
Iran announces full reopening of Hormuz following ceasefire.
The International Energy Agency warns that it will take nearly two years to recover the energy production lost in the Middle East due to the conflict.
Federal Reserve officials Daly, Barkin, and Waller are scheduled to make public appearances today.
Netflix retreats following its quarterly report; Reed Hastings announces he will step down as Chairman.
What you need to know about the economy and markets
European statistics agency Eurostat published its first estimate showing that the Eurozone generated a goods trade surplus with the rest of the world of EUR 11.5 billion in February 2026, compared to the EUR 23.1 billion surplus reached in February 2025. In February, Eurozone goods exports to the rest of the world rose to EUR 232.4 billion, representing a decline of 6.7% annually. Meanwhile, imports from the rest of the world stood in February at EUR 220.9 billion, a fall of 2.2% compared to February 2025.
Our take
The forward outlook is conditioned by a combination of external and internal factors that generate considerable uncertainty. On the external front, the protectionist escalation led by the Trump administration represents the most immediate risk, alongside the armed conflict in Iran and its impact on energy markets. On the domestic demand front, the Eurozone economic sentiment indicator declined in February 2026, reflecting falls in confidence across the industrial, construction, and services sectors.
Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open to commercial traffic during the remaining period of the truce, a key step toward ending a war with the United States and Israel that had driven energy prices sharply higher. US President Donald Trump commented that a new round of negotiations with Iran could take place this weekend. In this regard, Reuters, citing a Pakistani source involved in mediation between Washington and Tehran, mentioned that the next meeting could result in the signing of a memorandum of understanding, a preliminary step toward a comprehensive agreement that could be finalized within 60 days. In addition, with US mediation, a 10-day ceasefire was declared in Lebanon, one of Tehran's requests for continuing to advance toward resolution of the conflict.
Our take
Iran's decision to open the Strait of Hormuz is a very significant advance in the negotiation process toward a sustained peace agreement. This is perhaps the most relevant development for the global economy and financial markets. Progress still needs to be made on other important aspects, such as the nuclear issue.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) considers that it will take nearly two years to recover the energy production lost in the Middle East due to the conflict between the US and Iran. The agency also believes that the market is underestimating the consequences of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It noted that oil and gas shipments already en route to their destinations before the war in Iran began have now arrived, which has mitigated the impact of the shortage, but no new tankers were loaded in March. This gap is now beginning to become apparent.
Our take
The Agency's view is very similar to that of most analysts. If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen, the world must prepare for significantly higher energy prices for an extended period.
Throughout the day, several members of the US Fed will make separate appearances at public events, this time Daly (San Francisco), Barkin (Richmond), and Waller (Governor). They will very likely reiterate that monetary policy is well positioned to address the threat of a prolonged supply shock caused by the war in the Middle East, which could push inflation higher and slow growth in the United States.
Our take
The market assigns only a 35% probability to a 25bp cut by the Fed toward year-end. In fact, the prevailing bet is that there would be no movement in the US benchmark rate until September 2027.
On the corporate front, the main protagonist is Netflix, falling 10% in Wall Street pre-market trading after reporting first-quarter results that raised market doubts with weak guidance and the announcement of the departure of its co-founder and current chairman, Reed Hastings. The company reported net income of $5.283 billion, representing an annual increase of 82.8%. These figures translate to earnings per share of $1.23, an improvement from $0.66 in the first quarter of 2025, and came in above consensus forecasts.
Our take
What was presented in terms of expectations increases the risk that both macroeconomic and structural factors will have a greater-than-previously-anticipated impact on growth. Furthermore, the first-quarter figures were overshadowed by the announcement of CEO Reed Hastings' departure, as Netflix reported that he "will not stand for re-election" to the Board of Directors when his current term ends at the Annual Meeting in June, in order to "focus on his philanthropic work and other projects."
Markets and Stocks
WTI was falling 2.6% toward US$92 and Brent was approaching US$95, with the market responding to the most positive diplomatic signals of the week. The cumulative decline from the US$115–120 peaks is significant, but Brent still remains around 32% above pre-conflict levels. Gold was advancing 0.7% toward US$4,823 per ounce. Bitcoin was rising 0.9% toward US$75,877.
Grupo México confirmed the closing of the sale of approximately 80% of the capital of Concesionaria de Infraestructura del Bajío (CIBSA), the concessionaire of the Salamanca-León highway in Guanajuato, as well as indirectly 99% of Operadora de Infraestructura del Bajío (OIBSA). The transaction closed for 8.223 billion pesos, subject to corresponding contractual adjustments. Grupo México will retain a minority stake of approximately 18.9% in CIBSA.
Our take
The divestiture of the highway business is consistent with Grupo México's strategy of concentrating its portfolio on its core mining and rail transportation businesses, where it has clearer competitive advantages and more attractive margins. However, the transaction is small relative to the level of assets and the share that the infrastructure division represents in Grupo México's overall portfolio.
GICSA announced its intention to carry out a voluntary tender offer for up to the entirety of its outstanding shares, at a price of 3.80 pesos per share, an estimated premium of 34.8% over the 30-day average price. The company cited low stock liquidity, low trading volume, and the lack of opportunities to monetize positions as reasons for offering this liquidity window to its shareholders. GICSA also indicated that it will actively explore alternatives that could include mergers, spin-offs, corporate reorganizations, asset disposals to more efficient vehicles, and alliances, among other options.
Our take
GICSA's announcement fits into a trend that has gained visibility in the Mexican market in recent years, with companies trading at a discount to their historical multiples, with reduced liquidity and float, where controlling shareholders conclude that the market does not reflect the fair value of their assets and opt to buy them back. The most recent case is Grupo México Transportes (GMXT). For current holders, the 34.8% premium represents a concrete liquidity opportunity in an illiquid security.
The to-do list
Monitor Netflix's movement today: it is falling nearly 10% ahead of the open, interesting to see whether the market overreacts or whether the weak guidance justifies the decline.
Prepare next week's agenda today, not on Monday, orderly Fridays make Mondays more manageable.
Go for a walk or exercise today, closing the week active is always better than closing it seated.
Read something this weekend that you've had pending for a while, long weekends are the best allies of the forgotten books on the nightstand.
Recommendation of the day
To close the week in Mexico City, Montejo is the ideal option: contemporary cochinita pibil in an atmosphere that blends traditional Yucatecan with the contemporary. If you've never been, it's one of those restaurants that becomes a favorite from the very first visit. Perfect for an unhurried Friday.
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
S&P 500
7,110
0.50%
Nasdaq
26,610
0.50%
Dow Jones
49,132
0.80%
IPyC
68,876
0.00%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
USD/MXN
17.1695
-0.40%
EUR/MXN
20.3133
0.10%
EUR/USD
1.1828
0.40%
Índice DXY
98.01
-0.20%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
Treasury 2 años
3.7
-7.8 bp
Treasury 10 años
4.23
-7.7 bp
TIIE 3 meses
6.84
2.0 bp
M Bono 10 años
8.97
-4.0 bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
Petróleo (Brent)
95.18
-4.20%
Oro
4,842
1.10%
Important Notice
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Kapital does not hold investments in the securities covered by this analytical report that represent one percent (1%) or more of its securities portfolio.
Analysts may hold investments in certain issuers whose securities are the subject matter of this Analytical Report.
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During the past twelve months, where applicable, there have been changes in the direction of the opinions expressed in the analytical reports regarding the issuers covered by this analytical report, in accordance with prevailing economic, political, and social market conditions.
The contents of this document are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer or investment recommendation. Kapital assumes no liability for decisions made based on this information. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
