Pakistan delivers to the US Iran's revised proposal to advance toward peace
Iran conditions the agreement on compensation, lifting of blockades, and non-aggression guarantees.
Markets and Stocks
US futures are pointing to a negative open, with markets extending Friday's losses amid a new Middle East escalation. Drones attacked a nuclear facility in the UAE over the weekend and Saudi Arabia reported intercepting three additional drones, while Brent was rising toward US$110 and WTI was advancing toward US$106. 10-year Treasury yields were advancing toward 4.60%, with long-term bonds in Japan, Germany, and the UK also under pressure. G7 finance ministers meet in Paris today and tomorrow, with inflation and sovereign debt market volatility as the central theme. The week concentrates three first-order events: the FOMC minutes on Wednesday will give the first signals about the committee's thinking ahead of Warsh's first FOMC in June; Nvidia reports its results on Wednesday; and SpaceX could publish its IPO prospectus as early as Wednesday. NextEra Energy is negotiating the acquisition of Dominion Energy for approximately US$66 billion, which would be the largest M&A transaction in the energy sector.
Key points
Pakistan delivered to the US Iran's revised proposal demanding compensation, an end to blockades, and resumption of oil exports to advance toward peace.
Industrial production in China recorded its weakest growth since July 2023.
In April, fixed investment in China fell -1.6% annually and retail sales grew 0.2% annually.
For the rest of the day, the interbank exchange rate (pesos per dollar) could trade between $17.23–$17.35 spot.
What you need to know about the economy and markets
Pakistan delivered to the United States Iran's revised proposal to end the Middle East conflict, though negotiations remain stalled and with little time to advance. Key differences persist: the US demands restrictions on the nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran is requesting compensation, lifting of blockades, and security guarantees. In a high-risk environment, the recent drone attacks and the oil price rebound reflect the fragility of the ceasefire.
Our Take
The balance of risks remains clearly skewed to the upside for oil and global inflation. Although an active diplomatic channel exists, the lack of concrete progress and the more aggressive rhetoric suggest a high probability of escalation in the short term. The Strait of Hormuz remains the main critical point, with direct implications for global crude oil supply. In this context, markets will be highly sensitive to any headline, and central banks face a more complex environment where geopolitical shocks could delay or limit monetary easing cycles.
China's industrial production grew 4.1% annually in April 2026, decelerating from 5.7% in March and coming in below market expectations (5.9%). This was the weakest growth since July 2023, affected by the economic impact of the Middle East conflict. The moderation was visible in both mining (3.8%) and manufacturing (4.0%), though sectors such as computers and telecommunications (15.6%) and automotive (9.2%) maintained solid performance. On a monthly basis, production barely advanced 0.05%.
Our Take
The deceleration in industrial production reflects a loss of momentum in China's economy, in an environment marked by external uncertainty and weaker manufacturing impulse. Although some technology and automotive sectors continue to show resilience, the broad-based weakness suggests that the geopolitical conflict and deteriorating global demand are beginning to affect industrial activity more clearly. Taken together, the data point to a moderation in Chinese economic growth over the coming months.
Fixed investment in China fell -1.6% annually from January to April 2026 — well below the expected growth of 1.6%, reversing the 1.7% advance observed in the first quarter. The sharp decline in real estate investment (-13.7%) and the deceleration in manufacturing and infrastructure stood out. Meanwhile, retail sales grew just 0.2% annually in April — their weakest advance since 2022, affected by weakness in automobiles (-15.3%) and durable goods. On a monthly basis, sales retreated -0.5%.
Our Take
The data reflect a more pronounced deceleration in China's domestic demand, both on the consumption and investment sides. The persistent weakness of the real estate sector continues to weigh on economic activity, while the decline in durable goods sales points to greater consumer caution. Taken together, the deterioration of domestic demand and the adverse geopolitical environment suggest greater challenges for China's economic recovery in the coming months.
Corporate News
Ollamani announced the consummation of its strategic alliance with General Atlantic regarding Club América, Estadio Banorte, and the adjacent land, following approval by the National Antitrust Commission. The transaction, originally announced on December 23, 2025 and approved by the shareholders' meeting in February, was structured through Controladora Deportiva Águilas, in which Ollamani retains 51% of ordinary shares with control of strategic direction, while General Atlantic acquires the remaining 49% in a transaction valued at more than US$200 million.
According to Bloomberg reports, NextEra Energy is in advanced talks to acquire Dominion Energy in a mostly all-stock deal that would value Dominion at US$76 per share, a premium over Friday's closing price of US$62, with an exchange ratio of approximately 0.8 NextEra shares for each Dominion share. Including debt, the transaction would value Dominion at around US$116 billion, the largest M&A transaction of the year excluding the SpaceX-xAI merger. NextEra would control approximately 75% of the combined entity. The deal could be announced as soon as today. Dominion shares were rising as much as 12% and NextEra was falling 2.5% in pre-market trading.
According to Bloomberg reports, SpaceX could publish its S-1 registration statement with the SEC as early as Wednesday, in what would be the formal start of the process toward the largest IPO in history. The company is seeking to raise up to US$75 billion at a valuation of more than US$2 trillion, more than double Aramco's record in 2019 and larger by market capitalization than all S&P 500 members except six. SpaceX approved a 5-for-1 stock split. Elon Musk traveled to Texas over the weekend to work on the IPO plans.
Anglo American agreed to sell its metallurgical coal mines in Australia to Dhilmar for up to US$3.88 billion in cash, including an initial payment of US$2.3 billion and additional payments linked to the coal price of up to US$1.58 billion over the five years following closing. The transaction is part of the restructuring Anglo American announced in 2024 to resist a takeover bid from BHP, which includes the exit from its diamonds, coal, and platinum businesses. The proceeds will be used to reduce debt.
The to-do list
Monitor oil from early on: Brent is rising toward $110 following the weekend drone attacks and any news from Pakistan about Iran's proposal will move markets instantly.
This week has three key events: FOMC minutes on Wednesday, Nvidia results on Wednesday, and the possible SpaceX prospectus. Prepare the analysis of each one today with care.
Start the week with a clear agenda and prioritized pending matters, it looks set to be one of the most intense weeks of the month.
This week, try cooking something different at home: a vegetable curry is comforting, simple, and perfect for a week of a lot of external noise.
In the evening, read at least one chapter, Mondays with good nighttime reading lead to a better Tuesday.
Today's quote…
"Courage is not the absence of fear, but the decision that something else matters more."
— Ambrose Redmoon
Monitor
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