Mexico’s early private consumption indicator points to annual growth of 4.7% in January and 3.5% in February 2026
On a monthly basis, a decline of 0.6% is expected for January and an increase of 0.1% for February
Markets and Stocks
Futures on major indices were down around 0.6% in the morning, extending losses from the previous session in which U.S. equities fell more than 1% amid heightened geopolitical tensions and hawkish signals from central banks. Brent crude traded above 113 dollars per barrel after Israel attacked the South Pars gas field, the largest in the world, and Iran responded with missile strikes on Ras Laffan, Qatar’s main liquefied natural gas export hub. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged on Wednesday and effectively removed expectations of cuts in 2026, with Powell acknowledging “unusually high uncertainty” and noting that some committee members are already discussing the possibility of a hike. Meanwhile, U.S. jobless claims surprised to the downside, falling to their lowest level since January.
Key points
The Fed kept its interest rate unchanged, and Powell signaled that the fight against inflation is progressing more slowly than expected.
Iran’s attack on a gas facility in Qatar pushes oil prices higher again.
The central banks of Japan, England, and Europe followed expectations and kept their benchmark rates unchanged.
Initial jobless claims in the United States fell to their lowest level since January.
Technical bilateral discussions between Mexico and the United States for the USMCA review have formally begun.
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
S&P 500
6,628
-0.70%
Nasdaq
24,439
-0.90%
Dow Jones
45,916
-0.70%
IPyC
65,834
0.00%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
USD/MXN
17.8738
0.10%
EUR/MXN
20.5257
0.40%
EUR/USD
1.1483
0.30%
Índice DXY
100
-0.10%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
Treasury 2 años
3.9
16.2 bp
Treasury 10 años
4.31
4.9 bp
TIIE 3 meses
7.16
2.0 bp
M Bono 10 años
9.45
0.0 bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
Petróleo (Brent)
113.20
5.40%
Oro
4,525.00
-6.10%
What you need to know about the economy and markets
Mexico’s Early Indicator of Private Consumption suggests that consumption will grow 4.7% year-over-year in January 2026 and 3.5% in February. On a monthly basis, it is estimated to decline 0.6% in January, followed by a modest increase of 0.1% in February. The index is expected to stand at 113.7 points in January and 113.8 in February, indicating some moderation compared with the momentum observed at the end of 2025.
Our take
The early estimates point to a slowdown in consumption at the start of 2026 following the rebound seen in previous months. The monthly decline in January and weak growth in February suggest a loss of short-term momentum, although annual growth remains positive. Overall, consumption should continue to support domestic demand, but with signs of moderation early in the year.
The Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range for a second consecutive meeting, amid high uncertainty linked to the conflict in Iran. In its updated projections, the Fed raised its 2026 growth outlook to 2.4%, while both headline and core PCE inflation are expected at 2.7%. The central bank acknowledged that inflation risks have increased in the short term, partly due to rising energy prices, although long-term expectations remain relatively anchored.
Our take
The decision to hold rates reflects a complex balance between an economy losing momentum and persistent inflationary pressures. The Middle East conflict introduces additional upside risks to prices, limiting the Fed’s room for maneuver. In this environment, policymakers appear to favor a cautious stance, prioritizing price stability over preemptive support for growth.
More than two weeks after the start of the war in Iran, the conflict has entered a new phase with successive attacks on oil infrastructure, further driving up energy prices and amplifying the economic impact of the war. Israeli strikes on a major gas field operated by Iran triggered a rapid response from Tehran, which targeted Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG terminal, and later struck Saudi oil facilities in the Red Sea.
Our take
The escalation of the war continues to weigh on global markets. Attacks on key energy infrastructure in the Middle East are increasing concerns about a more prolonged conflict and its broader economic consequences.
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, as did the Swiss National Bank at 0%. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75%, and the European Central Bank maintained its rate at 2.0%. All institutions warned about the situation in the Middle East, noting that the conflict is likely to push inflation higher in the short term. A prolonged disruption in the supply of oil, natural gas, and other commodities increases upside risks to inflation. The recent experience of high inflation may also make households and firms more sensitive to another inflation shock.
Our take
The outlook for central banks is becoming more complicated, and markets are beginning to price in not only a pause in rate cuts but even a potential return to hikes.
Initial jobless claims in the United States surprised to the downside, falling to 205,000 from 213,000 the previous week, marking the lowest level since January. This figure came below consensus expectations of 215,000.
Our take
The claims data adds to evidence of a labor market characterized by limited layoffs but also weak job creation. Powell noted that the unemployment rate has changed little since last summer, but that subdued hiring remains a concern.
Mexico and the United States outlined the next steps for the USMCA review, formally launching technical bilateral discussions focused on strengthening regional supply chains and increasing North American content in manufacturing production.
Our take
Last September, the three member countries initiated the review process by calling for internal consultations to gather stakeholder views on the agreement. In both the United States and Mexico, results were largely supportive of renewing the treaty, although some areas for improvement were identified.
Markets and Stocks
Brent crude surpassed 113 dollars per barrel, accumulating gains of more than 55% since the beginning of the conflict, while WTI traded around 96 dollars. The wide spread between the two benchmarks reflects the availability of alternative supply in the United States compared with acute shortages in Asia and Europe. Gold declined for a seventh consecutive session toward 4,500 dollars per ounce, pressured by a stronger dollar and higher real yields following the hawkish shift from central banks.
Corporate News
HSBC is considering a significant workforce reduction in the coming years, with CEO Georges Elhedery betting on artificial intelligence to automate back- and middle-office functions. The exact scale of the cuts has not been disclosed, but sources suggest it could be one of the largest reductions in the bank’s recent history.
Micron Technology reported a strong jump in quarterly revenue driven by demand for memory chips used in artificial intelligence applications and issued third-quarter guidance above expectations. However, the stock fell about 6.6% in pre-market trading after announcing a 5 billion dollar increase in its capital expenditure budget for 2026.
Eli Lilly presented positive clinical data for one of its most anticipated experimental drugs, showing greater weight loss in diabetic patients than any currently available treatment. The results strengthen the company’s position in the race for next-generation obesity and diabetes treatments, a market that analysts estimate could exceed one trillion dollars in the next decade.
The to-do list
Monitor Brent oil prices: it has surpassed 113 dollars, and any new attack on energy infrastructure in the Middle East will move markets immediately.
It’s Thursday, a good day to get ahead on tasks before the end of the week—markets may bring more surprises tomorrow.
Closely follow the Mexico–U.S. technical discussions on the USMCA, as there are relevant opportunities in regional supply chains.
Go for a walk or exercise today—such a heavy news week also takes a physical toll.
Disconnect early tonight: more important data is coming tomorrow, and it has been a long week.
Quote of the day
“When the winds of change blow, some build walls and others build windmills.”
Chinese proverb .
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