Mexico's economy grows only 0.1% month-on-month in February
Additionally, the January data would show a monthly decline, after a 0.3% expansion had been anticipated in the previous report.
Markets and Stocks
Futures on the S&P 500 were down about 0.4% in the morning, extending the previous session's losses, where major U.S. indices dropped over 1% amid escalating geopolitical tensions and hawkish signals from central banks. Brent crude retreated to around $107 after reaching a high of $119 on Thursday, its highest level since 2022, after Netanyahu confirmed that Israel acted alone in the South Pars field attack and agreed to suspend further attacks on Iranian gas infrastructure at Trump's request. However, Iran continued its attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE, with the Revolutionary Guard confirming it is still manufacturing missiles.
Key points
Private consumption in Mexico was the largest contributor to GDP in the fourth quarter of the year.
Oil prices fluctuate despite U.S. plans to release Iranian oil, maintaining close to $110 per barrel.
China keeps its 3% reference interest rate unchanged for the eleventh consecutive month.
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
S&P 500
6,639
-0.30%
Nasdaq
24,477
-0.40%
Dow Jones
45,881
-0.40%
IPyC
65,513
0.00%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
USD/MXN
17.7871
0.30%
EUR/MXN
20.554
0.10%
EUR/USD
1.1564
-0.20%
Índice DXY
99.41
0.20%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
Treasury 2 años
3.87
3.3 bp
Treasury 10 años
4.30
1.9 bp
TIIE 3 meses
7.12
2.0 bp
M Bono 10 años
9.45
0.0 bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
Petróleo (Brent)
107.37
-1.20%
Oro
4,674.00
0.60%
What you need to know about the economy and markets
The Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) for February 2026 shows an estimated annual growth of 1.2% for the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE), with a monthly increase of 0.1%. Tertiary activities show a 1.9% annual expansion and a 0.2% monthly increase, while secondary activities saw a 1.9% annual decline, though with no monthly variation. For January, the estimate indicates a -0.2% monthly decline, well below the +0.3% initially reported.
Our take
The slight monthly and annual growth of the IGAE reflects a moderately positive economic scenario for February, mainly driven by services. However, the decline in secondary activities suggests that industrial sectors continue facing challenges. This slowdown in manufacturing could signal that the economic recovery remains uneven, with a bias toward services rather than more intensive productive activities.
The Quarterly Indicators of Global Supply and Demand and Gross Savings show that, in Q4 2025, global supply and demand grew by 2.4% on a quarterly basis, while gross savings increased by 3.5%. Annually, global supply rose by 4.3%, with a notable increase of 9.7% in imports of goods and services, and private consumption grew by 4.0%. However, gross fixed capital formation fell by 3.9%. Private consumption was the component with the largest contribution to GDP in the last quarter of the year.
Our take
The growth of global supply and demand reflects ongoing momentum, particularly in imports and private consumption. However, the decline in fixed investment points to potential challenges in business confidence, especially in sectors requiring large capital expenditures. The improvement in gross savings suggests that economic agents are prioritizing the accumulation of reserves, possibly linked to economic uncertainty and the need to finance future investments.
World leaders have attempted in recent hours to ease tensions in the Iran conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump has stated he will not deploy ground troops, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that Israel will avoid repeating attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that Washington could lift sanctions on around 140 million barrels of Iranian crude stored in ships, in an effort to contain the oil rally in the short term.
Our take
Forecasts suggest further increases in oil prices in the short term. In a more extreme scenario, if supply disruptions intensify and last for a significant period, prices could reach up to $150. However, our base case assumes de-escalation of the conflict within four to six weeks, which would allow prices to moderate to the $70-80 range by the end of the year.
The week closes with the decision from the People's Bank of China, which has kept its reference rates unchanged for the eleventh consecutive month, with the one-year preferential rate at 3% and the five-year rate at 3.5%.
Our take
The monetary authority is attempting to stimulate the Chinese economy in the face of uncertainties such as trade disputes with the U.S., low domestic and international demand, deflation risks, and a prolonged real estate crisis.
Markets and Stocks
The yield on UK gilts at 10 years reached its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, near 4.94%, marking the culmination of a week in which global fixed income suffered its largest liquidation since the start of the conflict. The immediate trigger was the Bank of England's statement, which kept rates unchanged but indicated it is "ready to act" unanimously, language the market interpreted as preparing for a rate hike.
Gold retreated to around $4,650 per ounce, accumulating a more than 7% drop on the week, on track for its worst weekly performance since March 2020. An asset historically associated with capital protection.
Our take
The explanation lies in the rate dynamics: the hawkish shift of central banks raises real yields, reducing the relative appeal of an asset that does not pay interest. Additionally, funds with losses in other assets have liquidated positions in gold to cover margins. For now, the market is betting on the dollar and oil as the refuges of this particular cycle.
Corporate News
Unilever confirmed it has received an offer from McCormick & Company to acquire its food business. The deal could be valued between €28,000 million and €29,000 million, according to Bloomberg estimates. Both parties are working to finalize the deal before the end of the month. The confirmation of the offer marks the conclusion of a strategy articulated by CEO Fernando Fernandez since his arrival: to concentrate Unilever on beauty, personal care, and wellness, where growth and margins are higher.
FedEx raised its earnings per share guidance for the fiscal year to a range of $19.30 to $20.10, above consensus, after reporting third-quarter results that far exceeded expectations. The company also noted it does not expect the Middle East conflict to have a material direct impact on its operations. FedEx also confirmed that the spinoff of its cargo unit remains on track for June.
ByteDance reached an agreement to sell Moonton, its gaming studio acquired a few years ago, to the Saudi group Savvy Games for $6,000 million. The divestment is part of ByteDance's strategy to focus resources on generative AI.
The to-do list
Monitor the markets' opening on Monday with special attention to any developments in the conflict over the weekend — Nowruz and Eid holidays in Iran could bring both pauses and new escalations.
Prepare the analysis for next week's Banco de México meeting: the international environment — with the market ruling out Fed rate cuts and incorporating hikes from the ECB and Bank of England — narrows the space for further cuts without a pause.
Review weekly portfolio performance calmly, without rushing into decisions.
Go for a walk or exercise, the body accumulates stress from such a volatile week.
Disconnect the phone early tonight, markets reopen on Monday.
Recommendation of the day
For tonight in Mexico City, a great option is to dine at Expendio de Maíz in Roma, serving traditional Mexican cuisine in an environment that encourages slowing down.
Important Notice
This document is confidential and intended solely for the use of clients and prospective clients of Kapital México Grupo Financiero (“Kapital”). The opinions contained herein reflect exclusively the views of the analysts as of the date of preparation, and such analysts do not receive any compensation from persons other than Kapital. Kapital hereby declares the following:
Kapital does not hold investments in the securities covered by this analytical report that represent one percent (1%) or more of its securities portfolio.
Analysts may hold investments in certain issuers whose securities are the subject matter of this Analytical Report.
No member of the Board of Directors, Chief Executive Officer, or senior officer of Kapital or of the entities comprising Kapital, occupying positions immediately below such level, holds any relevant position in the issuers of the securities covered by this analytical report.
During the past twelve months, where applicable, there have been changes in the direction of the opinions expressed in the analytical reports regarding the issuers covered by this analytical report, in accordance with prevailing economic, political, and social market conditions.
The contents of this document are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer or investment recommendation. Kapital assumes no liability for decisions made based on this information. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
