In February 2026, real retail trade revenues declined 0.9% month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, following mixed performance in prior months. In contrast, on an annual basis, retail sales grew 3.2%, while employed personnel increased 0.9% and average wages rose 6.4%. At the margin, employment held unchanged and wages recorded a slight monthly decline of -0.3%.

Our take

The monthly decline in retail sales suggests a moderation of consumption at the start of the year, in line with other domestic demand indicators. However, the positive annual growth and the increase in employment and wages reflect that consumption maintains some resilience. Taken together, the data point to lower dynamism in the short term, though without a marked deterioration, in a context where the evolution of real income and inflation will be key for the consumption trajectory. 

Despite the ceasefire extension, tensions remain elevated, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, there is no date set for the new round of negotiations between the US and Iran and, as a consequence, financial markets are hesitant today and oil has surpassed $100 per barrel. Developments on the ground also offer little cause for optimism. On Wednesday, Iran seized two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the United States intercepted two Iranian tankers. Tehran indicates it will not resume negotiations while the naval blockade continues.

Our take

In general terms, markets have adopted an optimistic view throughout this conflict, hoping for a quick resolution and normalization of energy flows through the strait. However, investors continue to show caution given the lack of progress in negotiations to resolve the conflict, which has already lasted nearly two months. The longer the war continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, keeping oil prices elevated, the greater the risk of significant economic repercussions for economies around the world. 

In the Eurozone, private sector economic activity as measured by S&P Global's preliminary composite PMI fell in April to 48.6 points (a 17-month low) from 50.7 points in March, entering contraction territory for the first time since late 2024. The manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 points (a 47-month high) from 51.6 points the prior month. Meanwhile, the services PMI fell to 47.4 points (a 62-month low) from 50.2 points in March.

Our take

At this point, the war is affecting the region's services sector more than any other, with commercial activity falling at a pace not seen since the lockdowns of early 2021 during the pandemic. However, the sustained growth in the industrial sector observed in April is not immune to potential negative surprises, as demand for goods is being driven by inventory accumulation while companies scramble to secure purchases before further price increases or supply shortages occur.

The German government has drastically revised downward its growth forecast for Europe's largest economy in 2026, largely due to the Iran conflict, now anticipating expansion of only 0.5%, half the 1.0% projected last January. The growth forecast for 2027 has also been significantly lowered, with the German economy now expected to grow 0.9% instead of the previously anticipated 1.3%.

Our take

The current economic situation is less favorable than expected at the start of the year as a consequence of the Middle East conflict and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which are causing shortages and rising prices for energy and other raw materials, affecting businesses and households in Germany. 

US initial jobless claims increased last week, though they remain at a level consistent with a low number of layoffs. They rose by 6,000 to reach 214,000, slightly above the 210,000 forecast. Meanwhile, continuing claims, an indicator of the number of people receiving benefits, increased to 1.82 million.

Our Take 

Initial claims continue to hover around some of the lowest levels recorded over the past year, in line with other recent data suggesting the labor market is stabilizing. Although approximately one in two employed Americans is worried about losing their job, according to a Harris Poll survey conducted for Bloomberg News in late March, the claims data do not yet reflect a significant pickup in layoffs. 

Corporate News

Alpek reported mixed results in Q1 2026. Revenues fell 1% in dollars, though volumes improved toward the close of the quarter. Comparable EBITDA grew 19% annually, benefiting from a positive inventory adjustment. Operating income was negative due to restructuring charges associated with the closure of recycling plants and the sale of the Beaver Valley site. The company maintained its Comparable EBITDA guidance of US$450–550 million unchanged, indicating it expects to land at the high end of the range. Alpek will hold its earnings call at 9:30am.

Our Take 

The operational improvement in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025 is encouraging, supported by external factors such as Middle East geopolitics and the natural gas weather event; however, the sector environment remains challenging due to oversupply and price pressure. 

Gentera reported positive figures in Q1 2026. The loan portfolio grew 14.7% annually, with Compartamos Mexico as the main driver (+18.8% year-on-year). Consolidated net income was 12.3% higher, with an ROE of 26.9% and ROA of 8.2%. On the other hand, provisions escalated 26.1% annually, raising the cost of risk to 12.9% (vs. 11.6% in Q1 2025), and the non-performing loan ratio deteriorated to 4.13%, with higher concentration in Mexico's individual portfolio at 6.33%. Gentera will hold its earnings call at 10:00am.

Our take

The results confirm Gentera's operational solidity, with net income and portfolio at record highs. However, the rise in delinquency in Mexico's individual portfolio introduces a note of caution that will need to be closely monitored. The current valuation leaves little margin for error and requires operational performance to be sustained in order to justify current levels. 

ASUR reported results affected by non-recurring factors in Q1 2026. Total revenues grew 0.8%; excluding construction, the advance was 2.2%, driven by the first full consolidation of ASUR US Airports (commercial rents). EBITDA fell 6.5% and the adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 593 basis points, affected by the change in the amortization method in Colombia, ASUR US integration fees, and a negative EBITDA from the US segment. ASUR will hold its earnings call at 8:00am.

Our take

Q1 2026 represents a transition quarter. Current margins are not representative of normalized operations. The three distorting factors have a defined normalization horizon. Consolidated commercial revenue per passenger advanced 4.7% and traffic in Colombia shows dynamism. We will closely monitor the normalization of traffic and the evolution of the US segment as it progresses through its ramp-up phase. 

Arca Continental reported neutral results in Q1 2026. Revenues remained practically in line with the prior year (+0.2%), though they grew 8.8% in constant currency terms, reflecting the dilutive effect of a stronger peso on operations in the US and South America. Total volume grew 2.9% to 563 MMUCs, with positive performance across all geographies except Argentina. EBITDA held practically unchanged (-0.2%), with a margin of 18.6% (-10 bp), while net income fell 8.5% to Ps. 3.792 billion. AC will hold its earnings call at 9:00am.

Our take

AC faces real profitability pressures. The standout is the performance of the US business, which posted the most profitable Q1 since the start of operations in those territories, a signal that commercial execution and portfolio innovation strategies are bearing fruit. Mexico also surprised positively despite pressure from the special tax on sugary beverages, offset by price adjustments. 

Cemex reported positive results in Q1 2026, surpassing consensus expectations. Net sales grew 11% annually, while EBITDA improved 34%, with a margin of 19.8% (+3.3pp). Free operating cash flow improved by nearly US$300 million compared to the prior year. The company maintained its high single-digit EBITDA growth guidance for the full year. Cemex will hold its earnings call at 9:00am.

Our take

The recovery in Mexico is a positive signal, though driven in part by a favorable exchange rate and lower maintenance activity that will normalize over the course of the year. The figures beat consensus, with the exception of the United States, where adverse weather and cement price pressure limited performance. The geopolitical environment in the Middle East represents the main risk to monitor, though operations in Israel and the UAE have already largely normalized. 

BanBajío announced a change in its general management, effective May 1, 2026. Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez submitted his resignation as CEO and board member after seven years at the helm of the institution. In his place, Iván Lomelí León will assume the role of CEO, subject to board approval on April 29. Lomelí joined BanBajío in May 2022 as Executive Director of Corporate Banking for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area and, since January 2026, extended his responsibilities to the country's northern and southern regions.

Tesla reported earnings that exceeded consensus expectations, with positive free cash flow of US$1.4 billion. However, the company raised its full-year capex guidance to more than US$25 billion, triple the 2025 spending, to finance the production of Optimus robots, the Terafab AI chip project, and Cybercab expansion. Musk indicated on the conference call that he does not expect material revenue from the robotaxi until at least 2027. Shares were falling 2.3% in pre-market trading.

The to-do list

Quote of the day

"First, do what is necessary. Then, do what is possible. And suddenly you will be doing the impossible."

— Saint Francis of Assisi