Mexico's retail sales grew 0.8% monthly in April 2026. On an annual basis, they increased 4.5%, while employed personnel advanced 0.7% and real average wages 6.1%. By subsector, annual increases stood out in household appliances, computers, and interior decoration items (12.7%), exclusively online commerce (9.3%), textiles, clothing accessories, and footwear (9.0%), health care products (8.0%), and motor vehicles and parts (6.5%).

Our Take April's data suggest that household consumption continues to show resilience despite the slowdown signals observed in other sectors of the economy, reflecting still-strong domestic demand supported by wage increases. However, considering the recent deterioration in consumer confidence and signs of economic activity stagnation in May, it is likely that the pace of retail trade expansion will gradually moderate in the coming months.

The Citi Expectations Survey showed a marginally more pessimistic adjustment for Mexico's 2026 economic growth, with the median reduced to 1.1% from 1.2% in the prior survey. In contrast, inflation expectations improved, with the median for the close of 2026 decreasing to 4.23% from 4.35%, while for 2027 it fell to 3.80% from 3.90%. Meanwhile, consensus kept the overnight rate expectation unchanged at 6.50% for the close of 2026 and 2027, reflecting that most participants no longer anticipate Banxico movements in the short term. Additionally, the exchange rate expectation strengthened, with a projection of 17.92 pesos per dollar for end-2026 versus the previously estimated 18.00.

Our Take The survey reinforces the idea of an economy that will grow at a moderate pace, but with a more favorable inflationary environment than expected weeks ago. The combination of lower inflation expectations and an unchanged terminal rate suggests the market considers Banxico has concluded its cutting cycle and will maintain a restrictive stance for an extended period.

Eurozone private sector activity showed a slight improvement in its pace during June. The preliminary composite PMI stood at 49.5 points, above May's 48.5 and at its highest level in three months, though it remained below the 50 threshold separating expansion from contraction. The improvement was driven by a deceleration in the decline of services, whose PMI advanced to 48.9 points from 47.7, while the manufacturing PMI stood at 51.3 points, slightly below the 51.6 registered the prior month.

Our Take The results suggest the Eurozone economy continues to go through a period of weakness, though with signs of stabilization. While private activity accumulated a third consecutive month of contraction, the improvement in the composite PMI and the moderation of inflationary pressures point to the economic deterioration potentially losing intensity.

Later (7:45am) the preliminary June PMIs for the United States will be published. In manufacturing, consensus expects a slight moderation to 54.8 points from the 55.1 registered in May, though the indicator would continue in expansion territory. The services PMI would stand at 51.2 points, above the 50.7 observed the prior month, suggesting moderate improvement in sector activity. Taken together, the indicators point to the US economy maintaining a positive growth pace at the close of the second quarter, though with mixed signals between sectors.

Our Take We expect the PMIs to reflect an economy that continues to show resilience, but with heterogeneous composition. The slight deceleration expected in manufacturing could be related to higher production costs and uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, particularly the impact of energy prices. In contrast, the expected improvement in services suggests domestic demand and the labor market continue to support economic activity.

Corporate News

SpaceX will attempt to raise at least $20 billion through a bond issuance (with investment grade) to finance its artificial intelligence projects. SpaceX has lost more than $600 billion in value after falling for three consecutive sessions, including a 16% decline on Monday, contagioned by the broad-based retreat of technology stocks globally.

Our Take SpaceX is not yet part of the Nasdaq indices; the fact that it is joining the bond issuance to finance excessive AI and infrastructure spending revives prior concerns that major tech companies could be investing too much in AI infrastructure and increasingly financing such spending through debt.

Porsche has confirmed its earnings forecasts for this year, while striving to rationalize its structure to reactivate margins, which have been heavily affected by US tariffs and weak demand in China. New CEO Michael Leiters plans to cut the company's model range and deepen cooperation with Volkswagen to reduce development costs, as the portfolio has become too complex.

Oracle has reduced its headcount by 21,000 employees over the past 12 months, a larger figure than previously known, including those whose positions have been eliminated due to artificial intelligence use. Oracle is under financial pressure due to the costly construction of AI data centers for clients such as OpenAI. Earlier this year, it began cutting thousands of jobs as part of its efforts to save cash.

Heineken has appointed Rafael Oliveira as its new CEO in an attempt to reverse the decline in demand. Oliveira will join on October 1, after leaving his position as CEO of coffee company JDE Peet's NV. The company had never before named an outsider as CEO, but it faces very modest sales as people are reducing alcohol consumption and cash-strapped consumers are cutting back on spending.

Apollo Global Management Inc. is again limiting withdrawal requests from its largest unlisted private credit fund aimed at retail investors, amid the persistence of widespread concern about this asset class. It limited withdrawals to 5% of outstanding shares after investors requested redemption of 16.8%.

The to-do list

  • Monitor markets throughout the day: the Fed's hawkish shift continues to pressure the technology sector, with the Nasdaq retreating close to 2% and Seoul's KOSPI plunging nearly 10%, while the dollar registers its largest rebound in three months and the peso operates near $17.50 per dollar.

  • Follow the US June preliminary PMIs at 7:45am: consensus expects manufacturing at 54.8 and services at 51.2, and any data surprise could reinforce or temper the bets on a Fed hike in September.

  • Tonight, prepare some esquites with epazote, chile, and cheese, the most quintessentially Mexican urban snack and perfect for a weeknight.

  • Dedicate 30 minutes to a swimming session or pool exercises if you have access, one of the most complete exercises with the least joint impact.

Today's quote…

"Don't wait for the perfect moment, take the moment and make it perfect."

— Zoey Sayward