Donald Trump has reversed his own ultimatum, which was set to expire today, announcing a five-day truce in attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure. According to the U.S. president, the past two days have seen very positive and productive talks with Iran toward a full resolution of hostilities in the Middle East. Iran’s leadership denies any dialogue with Washington and attributes the step back to its own military threats. Israel has ignored the announcement and launched new attacks in Tehran, increasing uncertainty around the conflict. Over the weekend, Trump had given Iran 48 hours to allow traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to strike Iranian electrical infrastructure in retaliation. Meanwhile, Tehran threatened attacks on power and gas facilities in the Gulf.

Our take

This is not the first time markets have had to price in a reversal from Donald Trump, often stepping back from decisions that were negatively impacting financial markets. It happened with tariffs, with the dismissal of Jerome Powell from the Federal Reserve, and now with the Iran attack. The shift is significant. Interpretations vary (negotiation tactic, real policy change, or communication strategy), but the result is the same: markets are navigating with low visibility and high volatility.

Analysts have once again slightly adjusted their macroeconomic expectations for Mexico in the latest Citi survey. For 2026, the median forecast places the exchange rate at 18.35 pesos per dollar by year-end, slightly above the previous estimate. GDP growth remains around 1.5%, reflecting moderate expansion. Expected headline inflation stands at 4.2%, while core inflation is at 4.1%, still above Banco de México’s target. In terms of monetary policy, analysts expect only two 25 basis point cuts during the year, bringing the reference rate to 6.50% by the end of 2026. The next cut is expected in May.

Our take

Overall, the consensus maintains a view of moderate growth with persistent inflationary pressures above Banxico’s target. At the same time, exchange rate stability suggests analysts still see relatively solid fundamentals for the Mexican peso despite multiple external shocks and episodes of volatility. The key question for markets remains the impact of the Middle East conflict on both inflation and GDP.

Same-store sales, those from stores with more than one year of operation, from chains affiliated with ANTAD grew 1.1% nominally in February on a monthly basis, marking their weakest performance since last September. Meanwhile, total store sales, including all units operating in the past 12 months, grew 3.1% in February compared to the same period in 2025.

Our take

Although sales remained in positive territory, they show some weakness at the start of 2026. Private spending in February was affected by disruptions to economic activity caused by blockades, looting, and violent incidents in several cities, mainly in the Bajío-West region. Based on this, a gradual normalization of spending is expected in March.

Markets and Stocks

Gold fell below $4,400 per ounce, accumulating a loss of more than 10% so far in March, on track for its worst monthly performance since 1983. The precious metal has erased all of its gains for the year.

Corporate News

Claro Telecom, a subsidiary of América Móvil, through Claro NXT Telecomunicaciones, signed an agreement to acquire approximately 73.01% of Desktop, a fiber-optic service provider in Brazil. The transaction is structured at an enterprise value of BRL 4,000 million (~$752 million), with a price of BRL 20.82 per share, subject to closing adjustments. The closing is subject to approval from CADE and ANATEL; once completed, Claro will be required to launch a tender offer for minority shareholders.

Our take

The deal contrasts with previous Reuters reports suggesting stalled negotiations and a valuation closer to BRL 2,000 million. Closing at double that valuation implies a multiple of approximately 6.1x EV/EBITDA, above AMX’s own trading multiple (~5.0x). Claro’s Brazilian operations generate around 15–17% of the group’s consolidated revenues, and Desktop provides fixed access infrastructure that directly complements that base. As such, the asset is not small for the subsidiary. The main risk lies in regulatory execution, as CADE and ANATEL in Brazil have shown high scrutiny in telecom infrastructure consolidation deals, and any delay or conditions could postpone closing or increase integration costs.

OpenAI is offering private equity firms a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5% as part of a joint venture structure designed to raise capital and accelerate adoption of its products in the enterprise segment. The proposal is more attractive than a similar offer from Anthropic, which is targeting the same type of institutional investors.

Elon Musk announced that SpaceX and Tesla will build two next-generation chip factories in Austin, Texas: one aimed at powering vehicles and humanoid robots, and another designed for AI data centers in space.

Berkshire Hathaway announced a $1.8 billion investment in Tokio Marine, Japan’s largest insurer, expanding its exposure to the Japanese market, which it has been building systematically in recent years. Japan offers high-quality companies with reasonable valuations, predictable cash flows, and a long-term corporate culture.

The to-do list

Quote of the day

"In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity."