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Eurozone economic activity, as measured by the composite PMI, rose from 52.0 to 53.1 in September, its highest level in 41 months and above the 51.5 forecast. The increase was driven by services, whose index climbed to 53.0, while the manufacturing index held at 52.7.

Our Take The acceleration in activity and its spread to services confirm a more robust Eurozone recovery. However, stronger momentum could also sustain inflation pressures and limit the ECB’s room to ease monetary policy.

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President Trump said U.S. officials held a three-hour meeting he described as “very good” and productive with Iranian representatives in New York, raising expectations of a negotiated resolution to the conflict. His threats against Iran during his UN address, however, show that the risk of military escalation remains.

Our Take This is the first meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials since mid-June. The diplomatic opening could reduce the oil risk premium and ease pressure on inflation and interest rates. Volatility will remain elevated, however, until there is a concrete agreement and risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz recede.

According to its Interim Economic Outlook, the OECD expects the global economy to grow 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, revisions of +0.1 and -0.1 percentage points, respectively, from June. Headline inflation across the G20 is projected at 4.1% and 3.6%, reflecting higher energy and other commodity prices, although an expected moderation in those prices would support disinflation in 2027. For Mexico, the OECD raised its 2026 growth forecast by 0.7 percentage points to 1.5% and kept its 2027 forecast at 1.8%.

Our Take The outlook combines moderate growth with still elevated inflation, limiting the scope for rapid monetary easing. A normalization in energy prices would allow for a gradual recovery in 2027, but the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, higher trade barriers and elevated long-term rates keep risks to global activity tilted to the downside.

The preliminary U.S. PMIs, due today at 7:45 a.m., are expected to show a slight moderation in September while still signaling a solid pace of expansion. The consensus expects the manufacturing index to slip from 53.9 to 53.5 and the services index from 56.5 to 56.0, against a backdrop of resilient consumption and AI-related investment.

Our Take A reading at or above expectations would confirm the strength of the U.S. economy and reinforce the possibility of further Fed rate hikes. Attention will also turn to the prices and employment components to assess whether growth continues to be accompanied by inflation pressures.

Corporate news

Royal Caribbean agreed to buy half of Sandals Resorts for approximately $3 billion, giving the cruise operator access to a network of resorts across the Caribbean.

Apollo will limit withdrawals from its roughly $26 billion Apollo Debt Solutions fund for a third consecutive quarter. Investors requested redemptions equal to 14.7% of shares, above the quarterly 5% limit, although that figure was down from 16.8% and largely includes requests carried over from previous periods. The move reflects persistent caution toward private credit amid concerns about asset quality and liquidity.

IonQ shares rose as much as 14% after the quantum computing company said it had developed the industry’s first real-time quantum error-correction decoder capable of running on a single, commercially available standard central processing unit.

Six Flags Entertainment shares rose 5.7% in premarket trading after The Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Jana Partners is pressing the theme park operator to explore a sale.

The “to-do list”

  • Follow Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s address to the UN General Assembly today.

  • Watch Mark Zuckerberg’s remarks tonight at Meta Connect (5:00 p.m. Mexico City time), given the impact the Muse AI agent is already having on market sector rotation.

  • Do three rounds of 40 seconds of shadowboxing, 15 reverse crunches and 12 shoulder taps per side in a plank position. Rest 20 seconds between rounds; approximate duration: 8 minutes.

  • Remember that today marks another anniversary of the Battle of Nochixtlán in 1866, when General Porfirio Díaz defeated the invading French forces in Oaxaca.

Quote of the day…

“In war, there is no substitute for victory.” ... General Douglas MacArthur