According to Reuters, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi could arrive in Islamabad, Pakistan this Friday evening with a small negotiating team to resume peace talks with the United States. The source is the Pakistani government. The latest round of peace talks had been expected to take place on Tuesday, but ultimately did not occur, as Iran said it was not yet ready to commit to attending and the US delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance, never left Washington. In addition, President Trump announced the extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire for three weeks.

Our take

The successive extensions of the truces have served to contain the worst-case scenario, but have not managed to dispel uncertainty. As long as the strait remains closed, the tension will continue to weigh on market sentiment and deteriorate economic prospects. At moments, oil reached its highest level since the ceasefire, with Brent around $107 per barrel. 

Mexico's unemployment rate stood at 2.4% in March 2026, slightly above the 2.2% observed in the same month of 2025, according to INEGI. This increase suggests a mild moderation in labor market strength, in a context where the economically active population continues to grow. Nevertheless, the unemployment level remains relatively low by historical standards, still reflecting resilient labor conditions, though with some signs of cooling at the margin.

Our take

The slight rebound in the unemployment rate points to a gradual normalization of the labor market after a period of high strength, in line with a moderate economic slowdown. Factors such as external uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and a still-restrictive interest rate environment could be beginning to show up in hiring decisions. 

The IFO Institute published that its index measuring Germany's business climate fell in its April reading to 84.4 points from 88.4 points in March, reaching its lowest level since May 2020, in the midst of the pandemic. The monthly decline was driven primarily by a significant fall in the future expectations of German companies, whose index fell in April to 83.3 points from 85.9 points the prior month.

Our take

The decline reflects growing concern among businesses about the impact of the Middle East conflict on Germany's economic recovery. This indicator joins other recent weak readings in consumer confidence and industrial production. 

Japan's inflation rose 1.5% in March, amid concerns over the energy sector generated by the war in Iran, up from 1.3% recorded in February and also above the analyst consensus forecast of 1.4%. Core inflation, which excludes fresh food prices, also accelerated for the first time in five months to 1.8%, up from 1.6% the prior month.

Our take

The expectation is that prices will rise even faster in April, with the possibility that both headline and core inflation could surpass 2% again by May. This would support the Bank of Japan's monetary policy normalization process, which could announce interest rate increases in the near term. 

UK retail sales rose 0.7% in March. This improvement follows the 0.6% decline recorded in February, a figure that has been revised downward from the initially reported -0.4% decline. Much of the increase is explained by a notable rise in fuel sales during the month, with consumers stocking up on fuel ahead of price increases.

Our Take 

Despite the improvement in sales, more serious challenges loom amid the threat of higher inflation and lower growth. Other data already released offer clues about what lies ahead: consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since October 2023, while British manufacturers are more pessimistic than at any point since the start of the pandemic.

Corporate News

Sigma Foods reported first-quarter 2026 results in line with its annual guidance, 13% higher in dollars, with record volume and revenues in comparable terms. The divergence with the reading in pesos (-3% year-on-year) is due to the appreciation of the peso against the dollar during the period. Comparable EBITDA reached $260 million (+18% year-on-year), while reported EBITDA fell 4% due to extraordinary items present in Q1 2025's base. Annual guidance was reiterated without changes. Sigma will hold its earnings call at 9:30am.

Our Take 

Sigma's results are solid once the accounting distortions are stripped out. The 18% growth in comparable EBITDA reflects tangible operational improvement, with Mexico and Europe as the main drivers. The region that merits close monitoring is the US, whose performance continues to lag the rest of the portfolio and represents the main pending execution challenge. 

Intel reported first-quarter revenues of US$13.6 billion, surpassing estimates, with earnings per share of US$0.29. The catalyst was the second-quarter guidance: revenues of between US$13.8 and US$14.8 billion, well above consensus. CEO Lip-Bu Tan noted that demand for its processors exceeds available production capacity.

Our take

Intel's report is one of the most relevant of the earnings season because it validates a thesis the market had dismissed 18 months ago, that Intel could recover its relevance in the AI era. The combination of CPU demand, the alliance with Tesla for Terafab, and US government investment has created a momentum that the market is rewarding. 

Procter & Gamble reported 3% organic growth in the third quarter of its fiscal year, beating the most optimistic consensus estimates, driven by the beauty segment. However, the company raised its raw materials cost estimate by an additional US$150 million for the current fiscal year, primarily due to transportation, and warned that if oil remains sustainably above US$100 per barrel, the additional impact in 2027 could reach US$1 billion.

The to-do list

Recommendation of the day

To close the week in Mexico City, Al Toque Pez in Polanco is a hard bet to beat: contemporary Peruvian cuisine, ceviche worth every peso, and an atmosphere that invites you to stay longer than planned. Perfect for a Friday that calls for good food and even better conversation.