The IFO Institute's business climate index for Germany rose in June to 85.6 points, its highest level in three months, from 85.0 points in May. The improvement was mainly due to companies' more favorable assessment of the current situation, whose sub-index rose in June to 87.0 points from 86.1 in May. Meanwhile, the expectations indicator advanced slightly in June to 84.1 points from 83.9 in May.

Our Take

The data suggest that Germany's economy continues to stabilize gradually and that companies' perception of present conditions has improved, though the prospects for the coming months remain cautious and reflect that the recovery remains moderate.

The Brent international oil price reference falls below $76 per barrel, a level at which it is approaching values prior to the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. Crude prices thus extend their decline for the third consecutive session, after signals of a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which manages a significant portion of global oil trade, and the improvement in US-Iran relations alleviate fears of a prolonged disruption to energy supply in the Middle East.

Our Take

Although mine-clearing operations, damaged infrastructure, and security risks continue to limit full-scale operations, oil movements have increased notably during the past week.

Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell -0.7% in May compared to April, marking its first decline since August 2025 and a larger retreat than the -0.3% anticipated. On an annual basis, inflation stood at 4.0% from 4.2% in April. The deceleration responded primarily to lower pressure on goods prices, especially the moderation of transportation prices (gasoline). Core inflation stood at 3.6% annually, compared to 3.4% the prior month.

Our Take

Despite the moderation, inflation continues to sit above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) 2%–3% target range, with a trend that will likely keep the authority in a restrictive stance in the coming months.

The US dollar index has extended its gains to reach a new 13-month high against a basket of major currencies, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid the decline in technology stocks and position themselves for possible Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. In the case of the Mexican peso, the currency depreciates at times toward $17.65 spot, levels not seen since last April.

Our Take

The market increasingly appears to be gaining conviction that the Fed will raise interest rates this year, which would reduce the attractiveness of holding positions in other currencies, including the Mexican peso.

Corporate News

Asur's Board of Directors reported that it will propose to its shareholders absorbing the technical assistance business that its strategic partner ITA has provided since the group began operations. The transaction would be carried out through a merger and would require issuing approximately 7.25 million new shares as consideration. The Board also agreed to propose the payment of two extraordinary dividends of 10 pesos per share each, payable in November and December 2026. All points are subject to approval by its Extraordinary General Shareholders' Meeting, whose date has not yet been called.

Our Take

The announcement combines two messages. On one hand, Asur seeks to reduce long-term costs by bringing in-house services it historically paid a third party for, following a similar path to that taken by GAP. On the other, the extraordinary dividends imply a dividend yield of 5.8%, representing a relevant additional return for shareholders in a year when operating results have been under pressure. The key piece is the price at which ITA is valued, as that determines whether the dilution implied by the new share issuance is justified by the savings that would be generated.

GICSA reported today that its Board of Directors cancelled the public tender offer it had announced weeks ago. The company attributed the decision to "incorrect perceptions" among shareholders who interpreted the tender offer as a first step toward delisting its shares and cancellation from the National Securities Registry. In its place, the Board announced an active capitalization plan.

Our Take

The tender offer at 3.80 pesos was presented as a liquidity avenue for shareholders wishing to exit, a signal that the company recognized its market price does not reflect adequate value and that certain investors needed an exit. The cancellation of that same tender offer, replaced by a capitalization plan, suggests the real priority is reducing leverage. The central message is that the company is in an active financial restructuring process whose outcome is still undefined.

Micron Technology reports its fiscal third-quarter results at the close, with consensus expecting earnings growth of more than 1,000% and revenue growth of approximately 285% year-on-year, according to data compiled by Reuters. The stock has accumulated an advance of more than 760% over the past 12 months and its market capitalization exceeds US$1.19 trillion, surpassing Walmart and Intel.

Our Take

Micron's report this afternoon is the most important event of the week for the technology sector. Guidance confirming that HBM scarcity extends through 2027 and that margins continue to expand could be the catalyst that stabilizes the SOX after Tuesday's "chip-wreck" and reopens appetite for the sector.

SK Hynix announced plans to raise up to US$29.4 billion through the issuance of ADRs on Nasdaq, in what would be the second-largest equity placement after SpaceX's IPO, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Reuters. The start of trading is scheduled for July 10 with prices to be determined. The funds will be used to build new chip factories in South Korea and acquire extreme ultraviolet lithography machines from ASML.

Cerebras Systems reported better-than-expected revenues, with a net loss of US$14 million. Its full-year revenue guidance of US$855–865 million, above consensus, proved insufficient for a market expecting more dramatic acceleration.

The to-do list

  • Monitor the exchange rate throughout the day: the peso depreciates toward $17.65 per dollar, levels not seen since April, with the dollar index at 13-month highs as the market positions for a possible Fed rate hike in September.

  • Follow the oil price decline: Brent approaches $75 for the first time since the start of the war, with more tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz, confirming that the gradual reopening is gaining traction and easing global inflationary pressures.

  • It's Wednesday, the inflection point of the week: review what was left pending from Monday and Tuesday, and define what must be resolved before Friday.

  • Tonight, prepare something quick because at 7:00pm Mexico vs. Czech Republic kicks off at the World Cup, the Tri's third home match, and you can't miss even the National Anthem.

  • Dedicate 20 minutes before the match to a quick session of squats, push-ups, and sit-ups, no need to leave home and no equipment required; the body appreciates it before sitting down to watch the game.

Today's quote…

"Football is the most beautiful sport in the world because it can give you everything in an instant and take it away in the next."

— Zinedine Zidane