The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, unchanged from the initial estimate, although below the 2.1% recorded in the first quarter. Underlying components showed greater strength than initially reported, with consumer spending revised upward to 3.4% from 3.2%, while nonresidential fixed investment increased 8.5%, pointing to stronger domestic demand than initially estimated.

Our Take

The upward revisions to consumer spending and investment suggest that the U.S. economy may have a more resilient growth base than initially estimated, particularly in nonresidential investment, which could provide more lasting support for economic activity during the second half of the year.

The geopolitical situation surrounding Iran is showing signs of de-escalation, although significant risks remain. Iran and Oman are moving toward an agreement to establish a temporary navigation corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, while Pakistan is reporting progress in its diplomatic efforts with Tehran. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio told allies that the United States is not considering further military attacks for now, prioritizing economic pressure and sanctions.

Our Take

This greater room for diplomacy is already reflected in markets, with Brent crude down nearly 9% for the week, as the risk premium associated with a prolonged disruption to oil flows has declined.

Mexico's current account recorded a surplus of $8.927 billion in Q2 2026, compared with a deficit of $4.460 billion in the same period of 2025. The result was mainly driven by a $10.818 billion surplus in the goods balance, with exports of $214.062 billion exceeding imports of $203.268 billion. In the first half of the year, the current account accumulated a deficit of $9.304 billion, equivalent to 0.9% of GDP, down from the $17.963 billion deficit recorded a year earlier.

Our Take

The current account surplus is not necessarily good news, particularly if it reflects depressed domestic investment. In this scenario, rather than attracting foreign savings to expand productive capacity, the Mexican economy would be exporting capital, which strengthens the country's external position but could also point to lower investment and more limited growth potential going forward.

Later today (12:30 p.m.), Banxico's Quarterly Report for Q2 2026 will be released. Attention will focus on the assessment of economic activity, the inflation outlook, and the balance of risks, as well as any signals regarding the future direction of monetary policy.

Our Take

We do not expect significant changes in the monetary policy signals, although there could be adjustments to the economic outlook, particularly to the GDP growth ranges for this year, as well as comments that could alter perceptions regarding the trajectory of the main economic indicators going forward.

Corporate News

Victory Capital Holdings agreed to acquire First Eagle Investments for approximately $7 billion, a transaction that would bring the combined company's assets under management to nearly $571 billion. Victory will pay $4 billion in cash and $2 billion in newly issued shares, in addition to assuming $575 million in First Eagle senior secured notes maturing in 2032.

Shares of Zoom Communications fell nearly 6% after the company provided a sales outlook for the current quarter that was roughly in line with analysts' expectations, disappointing investors who had expected greater momentum from its expanded product suite.

Hyundai unveiled the largest product push in the automaker's history, announcing more than 100 new and refreshed models to challenge Toyota in the U.S. hybrid vehicle market, which is currently performing strongly.

The to-do list

  • Closely follow Nvidia's earnings report after today's market close, the most important event of the week for global markets.

  • Monitor any new escalation in the U.S.-Canada trade dispute and its potential relevance to the USMCA review involving Mexico.

  • Tonight, prepare shrimp ceviche tostadas with avocado and serrano pepper, fresh, quick, and perfect for a Wednesday night when the heat and the week call for something light.

  • Remember that today marks another anniversary of the death, in 1912, of José María Velasco, the leading figure of 19th-century Mexican landscape painting.

Quote of the day...

"Success is walking from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm."

— Winston Churchill