Futures for the major US indices were trading steadily ahead of the open. Brent was rising 2.1% toward US$107 per barrel and WTI was advancing 2.2% toward US$96, after peace talks with Iran remained stalled over the weekend. Trump cancelled the trip of his envoys to Pakistan and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi landed in Russia to meet with Vladimir Putin. However, an Axios report indicates that Iran presented a new proposal to the US that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the naval blockade. Meanwhile, Senator Thom Tillis withdrew his block on Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair after the Department of Justice archived the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, clearing the path for Warsh to be confirmed before May 15. This week Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple report, representing approximately 25% of the S&P 500's market capitalization. Later, notable reports from Volaris, Regional, and Peñoles in Mexico
Key points
Although peace negotiations remain stalled, Iran sends a proposal to the US to reopen Hormuz.
German consumer confidence falls in May to lows since 2023 due to the war in Iran.
Senator Thom Tillis lifts his veto, clearing the way for Kevin Warsh to chair the Fed.
Attack at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.
What you need to know about the economy and markets
In March 2026, the trade balance recorded a surplus of $5.932 billion, following the $463 million deficit in February. Exports reached $70.727 billion (+27.7% annually), driven by strong growth in non-oil exports (+29.6%), particularly manufacturing. Meanwhile, imports totaled $64.795 billion (+24.3% annually), with increases in intermediate goods (+27.2%) and consumer goods (+19.3%). In the January-March cumulative period, the balance showed a deficit of $1.012 billion.
Our take
The March surplus reflects meaningful dynamism in the external sector, supported by the performance of manufacturing exports. In addition, the simultaneous growth in imports, especially intermediate goods, suggests solid productive activity. Taken together, foreign trade figures remain an important driver of Mexico's economic activity in 2026.
According to Pakistani sources, Iran has reportedly transmitted a new proposal to the US for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the conflict. The offer proposes that the ceasefire would be extended for a long period, or that both parties would agree to a definitive end to the war and that nuclear negotiations would begin subsequently, once the strait is opened and the blockade that Washington has imposed on all vessels attempting to reach or leave Iranian ports is lifted. This comes as Iran's chief negotiator and Foreign Minister arrives in Russia to discuss the evolution of the war with Putin.
Our take
There is interest on both sides in bringing this matter to an end as soon as possible, though the manner in which it is done is very important for both parties in terms of their domestic narrative, which complicates its conclusion. However, if the US now agrees to unblock Hormuz, Iran will have few incentives to then yield on the nuclear issue.
German consumer confidence deteriorates sharply again. The GfK index for May has fallen to -33.3 points from -28.1 the prior month, a decline of 5.2 points and its lowest level since February 2023. The deterioration in sentiment is explained primarily by a sharp worsening of income expectations, which plunged 18.1 points to -24.4, in a context of rising inflation and cooling economic prospects.
Our take
The decline reflects growing pressure on households, as rising energy prices are driving inflation higher and are expected to continue rising if the conflict with Iran persists.
Republican Senator Thom Tillis announced on Sunday that he will vote in favor of confirming Donald Trump's nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, after noting that the Department of Justice had permanently suspended the investigation into his predecessor, Jerome Powell. As such, the path to Warsh's nomination as the future Fed chair is increasingly clear.
Our take
Warsh, who appeared before the Senate Banking Committee at a confirmation hearing last week to affirm that he will act with full independence from the White House, enjoys broad support from Republican legislators. The committee, of which Tillis is a member, has scheduled a vote on Warsh's nomination for April 29.
The weekend was also marked by a serious security incident involving Donald Trump. On Saturday, during the annual White House Correspondents' Dinner in Washington, an armed man opened fire in the vicinity of the event, which forced the Secret Service to immediately evacuate the president and his team. The attacker was subdued on the spot and detained in a swift intervention by agents.
Our take
Although Trump (and the other nearby officials) was unharmed, the incident left at least one agent injured and has reignited security concerns in a context of heightened political tension in the United States.
Corporate News
China's National Development and Reform Commission ordered the cancellation of Meta's US$2 billion acquisition of Manus. Manus is headquartered in Singapore and its founders are based outside China, making this the first time Beijing has exercised regulatory authority over a transaction technically conducted outside its jurisdiction. The deal, announced last December, had already been partially completed, Manus employees had been integrated into Meta's teams in Singapore and capital had been transferred to the prior shareholders.
Shell agreed to acquire ARC Resources, a Canadian natural gas and oil producer, for US$13.6 billion, in a combination of 25% cash and 75% shares, with a 20% premium over the 30-day average price. The transaction establishes Canada as a priority market for Shell and reinforces its production reserves through 2030.
Eli Lilly announced the acquisition of Ajax Therapeutics for up to US$2.3 billion in cash, gaining access to an early-stage experimental drug for a type of cancer. The transaction follows the acquisition of Kelonia Therapeutics for up to US$7 billion. With these two deals in one week.
According to Wall Street Journal reports, a group of low-cost airlines, including Frontier and Avelo, requested a US$2.5 billion economic aid package from the US government in exchange for warrants convertible into equity stakes, as a result of cost pressure from the rise in fuel prices, assuming an average price above US$4 per gallon.
The to-do list
Follow Iran's proposal to reopen Hormuz, it is the most relevant signal of the week and any US response will move oil immediately.
This week Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple report, prepare the analysis of each one; their corporate guidance will be the clearest thermometer of the conflict's impact on the real economy.
Start the week with a clear agenda and prioritized pending matters, this is one of the most packed weeks of the year.
If you finished Man's Search for Meaning, today is a good day to choose the next book, a great option is Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman.
Quote of the day
"It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop."
— Confucius
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
S&P 500
7,190
-0.10%
Nasdaq
27,427
0.00%
Dow Jones
49,339
-0.10%
IPyC
69,266
0.00%
|Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
Activo
Valor
Variacion_pct
USD/MXN
17.3743
0.00%
EUR/MXN
20.4091
0.30%
EUR/USD
1.1746
0.20%
Índice DXY
98.25
-0.30%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Ativo
Valor
Variación_pct
Treasury 2 años
3.80
2.3 bp
Treasury 10 años
4.32
1.2 bp
TIIE 3 meses
6.84
2.0 bp
M Bono 10 años
9.07
0.0 bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Activo
Valor
Variación_pct
Petróleo (Brent)
107.41
2.00%
Oro
4,694
-0.30%
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