In July 2026, Mexico's economically active population totaled 62.6 million people, just 34,000 more than in July 2025, bringing the labor force participation rate down to 59.2% from 60.2% a year earlier. The unemployment rate stood at 2.9%, slightly above the 2.8% recorded in July 2025. The labor informality rate remained virtually unchanged at 56.2%, compared with 56.1% a year earlier.

Our Take

The figures point to a labor market losing some momentum, with a shift toward relatively lower-quality employment, warranting close monitoring in the coming months to determine whether this is a temporary slowdown or the beginning of a more persistent trend.

Banxico raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%, from 1.1%, due to the stronger-than-expected performance observed in the second quarter. For 2027, it marginally lowered its forecast from 2.1% to 2.0%. The central bank expects to keep monetary policy on hold, while reaffirming that inflation convergence toward the 3% target has been postponed until the fourth quarter of 2027.

Our Take

The upward revision for 2026 does not represent a fundamental change in the economic outlook. This reinforces our expectation that Banxico will maintain a cautious stance and prioritize consolidating the disinflation process before considering further adjustments to the overnight rate.

U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 203,000 in the week ended August 22, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous revised figure, although the four-week moving average rose to 205,500 (+1,250). Continuing claims stood at 1,778,000 (-18,000), with the rate remaining stable at 1.2%.

Our Take

Despite the slight increase in the four-week average, initial claims remain within the relatively contained range observed for much of the year, with no signs of an abrupt deterioration in the labor market.

According to research firm GfK, consumer confidence in Germany improved significantly heading into September, although it remains deeply negative. The index rose in its preliminary September reading to -26.6 points, from -29.4 points in August. Income expectations also resumed their recovery toward the end of the summer after stagnating the previous month.

Our Take

The improvement in confidence was mainly driven by a significant rebound in income expectations, accompanied by a slight decline in the willingness to save. This was also supported by somewhat more favorable economic expectations.

Corporate News

Nvidia reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, more than double the figure from a year ago, versus an estimate of $92.5 billion, with earnings of $2.22 per share compared with expectations of $2.09. The company forecast revenue of $108 billion for the current quarter and projected nearly 70% growth for fiscal 2028, well above the 45% expected by consensus.

Our Take

The most important message from the report is not the revenue figure, but the confirmation that the AI cycle is currently constrained by physical limitations, memory, packaging, power, and data center capacity, rather than by a lack of end demand, which is a crucial distinction when assessing how much longer this investment cycle can last.

Shein raised HK$13.6 billion ($1.7 billion) after pricing its initial public offering in Hong Kong, selling approximately 280 million shares at HK$48.56 each. The resulting valuation, just above $26 billion, compares with the nearly $100 billion valuation the company reached four years ago.

Salesforce reported results that surprised the market to the upside, with revenue guidance that eased investor concerns about its ability to compete amid the disruption that artificial intelligence poses to the traditional software-as-a-service model. The company also announced the expansion of its partnership with Anthropic as part of its enterprise AI strategy. Shares rose 10–11% during the session.

Kioxia and SanDisk plan to invest more than ¥5 trillion ($31.4 billion) to expand flash memory production capacity in Japan. The investment is a direct response to the shortage of memory that has affected both smartphone manufacturers and Nvidia in recent months, and confirms that Japan continues to consolidate its position as one of the leading destinations for semiconductor investment.

The to-do list

  • Monitor oil prices; Iran's neighboring countries are increasing crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, helping cool commodity prices.

  • Keep an eye on gold and Bitcoin. ETFs tracking both assets attracted a record $7 billion over the past five sessions.

  • Tonight, prepare beef barbacoa tacos with consommé and red onion, one of the most comforting dishes in Mexican cuisine and one best enjoyed without rushing.

  • Remember that today marks another anniversary of the agreement reached in 2018 between Mexico and the United States to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, the direct predecessor of the current USMCA.

Quote of the day...

"Live as if you were to die tomorrow, learn as if you were to live forever."

— Mahatma Gandhi