Mexico's unemployment rate stood at 2.6% of the economically active population in February 2026, below the 2.9% recorded in January. In seasonally adjusted figures, the rate was 2.7%, remaining at historically low levels. The employed population reached 59.6 million people, with an informal employment rate of 54.5%, reflecting the persistence of structural conditions in the labor market.

Our take

The decline in the unemployment rate confirms that the indicator remains relatively strong at the start of 2026, with historically low unemployment levels. However, the high informality rate suggests that part of this strength is associated with lower-quality jobs. Overall, the labor market continues to be a support for consumption, though with structural limitations that could constrain more sustained improvements in household income.

The war in the Middle East enters its fourth week with no end in sight, with supposed negotiations between the US and Iran, new cross-attacks, and market instability from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump postponed by another 10 days, until April 6, his threat to attack Iranian power plants if it does not unblock maritime traffic in the strait. Trump insists that negotiations with Iran are going "very well." The optimism following the extension was tempered by reports from The Wall Street Journal that the Pentagon is studying the deployment of up to 10,000 additional infantry troops to the area, stoking fears of a ground conflict.

Our take

The relief in global financial markets from US President Donald Trump's latest postponement of attacks against Iran has been fleeting. Volatility has dominated the market this week amid a series of contradictory signals about the US and Israel's war against Iran.

China launched two investigations into US trade practices, in retaliation for similar probes by the US government, particularly those under Section 301. One investigation targets practices that, according to Beijing, distort global supply chains, including controls on exports of advanced technology and limits on bilateral investment in strategic sectors. The other action focuses specifically on what China described as US barriers to trade in green products.

Our take

The world's two largest economies have broadly stabilized their relationship following last year's exchange of tariffs, although the Asian giant has signaled its opposition to new US actions. The attacks against Iran, a diplomatic partner of China, have added new tensions to the bilateral relationship, though both governments have sought to maintain a channel for dialogue.

Banxico surprised markets and decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, leaving it at 6.75%. The decision was split, with a 3-2 vote, with Deputy Governors Heath and Borja voting to hold it unchanged. The bank also stated that the monetary stance achieved would be appropriate to face the challenges stemming from a prolongation and escalation of the Middle East conflict and its repercussions. In its forward guidance, the authority left the door open to further rate cuts, subject to the evolution of annual inflation.

Our take

Banxico's decision to cut its benchmark rate comes as a surprise given the current context and inflation readings. The move could send a premature signal, which could have undesired effects on medium-term inflation expectations. A pause stance would have offered the Bank of Mexico room to observe the dynamics of upcoming data before committing to a specific path.

The Mexican peso depreciated in the early hours of today's session above the psychological level of $18.0 spot, near its worst level so far this year. The global risk-aversion sentiment surrounding the Iran conflict and yesterday's Banxico decision to cut the benchmark interest rate are the two elements putting pressure on the Mexican currency.

Our Take 

By lowering the funding rate, Banxico reduces the attractiveness of the Mexican peso carry trade: a financial strategy in which investors borrow in lower-yielding currencies, such as the US dollar, to invest in higher-yielding ones, such as the peso. Added to this, the Mexican central bank's action comes amid a broad advance of the dollar.

Markets and Stocks

Gold advanced 1.5% toward US$4,442 per ounce, recovering part of the ground lost in its worst month since 1983. The dollar maintained its largest monthly advance since July 2025, complicating conditions for emerging markets that are importers of dollar-denominated energy.

Corporate News

At Volaris' Extraordinary General Shareholders' Meeting, the merger with Viva was approved, in which Volaris will act as the surviving entity and Viva will cease to exist as an independent company. As part of the transaction, Volaris will carry out a capital increase of up to $248.3 million through the issuance of new shares. The meeting also approved a new corporate governance structure for the combined entity, with Roberto Lázaro Alcántara Rojas as Chairman of the Board and a co-CEO structure shared between Enrique Beltranena, current CEO of Volaris, and Juan Carlos Zuazua, who heads Viva Aerobus.

Our Take 

The approval with a 91.85% majority is a signal that shareholders of both airlines support the strategic rationale behind the combination. The merger creates Mexico's largest low-cost operator by fleet and capacity, with a dominant position on domestic and cross-border routes. The co-CEO structure will be one of the most closely watched elements in the post-merger execution. The timing is not easy: aviation fuel prices have risen considerably due to the Iran conflict, adding operational pressure just as the combined company needs to focus its attention on integration.

Anthropic, the company behind the Claude artificial intelligence assistant, is evaluating going public as early as October, according to Bloomberg reports. Anthropic was valued at US$380 billion in its most recent funding round of US$30 billion closed in February.

Pernod Ricard, the world's second-largest spirits producer, and Brown-Forman confirmed they are in talks about a possible merger. Both companies are going through a difficult period: global demand for premium spirits has fallen under pressure on discretionary consumer spending, and Trump's tariffs have hit Jack Daniel's exports to Europe. A combination would create the world's largest spirits group by revenue.

Novartis agreed to acquire Excellergy, a US biotechnology company, for up to US$2 billion including contingent payments. The deal comes one week after Novartis announced the acquisition of an experimental drug from Synnovation Therapeutics for up to US$3 billion.

The to-do list

  • Review the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data published today and assess whether it confirms the deterioration in discretionary spending that the high-gasoline-price environment anticipates.

  • Prepare the analysis of the March employment report to be published next week, it will be the first labor market reading to incorporate the impact of the Iran conflict and could be the most relevant macroeconomic data point of the next two weeks.

  • Monitor the exchange rate: the peso has already surpassed $18.0 spot and the combination of Banxico's rate cut plus global risk aversion keeps it under pressure.

  • Rest and disconnect this weekend, it is Holy Week and markets in Mexico and several countries will have public holidays. A fresh perspective for the week ahead.

Quote of the day

It was a week of too much noise. Tonight in CDMX, a great option is Pujol in Polanco if you want to close the week in style, or something more relaxed like El Hidalguense in La Roma for unpretentious carnitas. If you prefer to stay home, Margin Call on streaming is the perfect movie for this moment: a financial thriller that unfolds over a single night of crisis, very much in keeping with the week that just passed.